The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/sta...48909476081668

FTC proposing a rule to ban non-compete clauses for employment

pretty based

[archibaldcrane]

Another strong labor data. Not surprisingly caused all reds on the stock market.

Remember this is private payrolls data from ADP, not the official "jobs report" from the BLS that we'll get tomorrow.

But still I'll take it

https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/sta...45052628729863

[Byrthnoth]

Banning noncompetes is interesting as a political end. Feels like a 1990s consensus neolib position.

I could see capping noncompetes at 6mo or something, but completely banning them feels like it would cause churn / instability.

[Spicyryan]

Banning noncompetes is interesting as a political end. Feels like a 1990s consensus neolib position.

I could see capping noncompetes at 6mo or something, but completely banning them feels like it would cause churn / instability.

Stifles innovation and controls workers while suppressing wages due to workers being unable to leave over the compete clause. Instability is the companies problem and they made this environment, fuck 'em.

[Zealot]

Most non-compete clauses aren't enforceable anyway.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

[Kaslo]

Most non-compete clauses aren't enforceable anyway.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

but require considerable legal expenses to challenge

[Mayareira]

Remember this is private payrolls data from ADP, not the official "jobs report" from the BLS that we'll get tomorrow.

But still I'll take it

It is going to be a rough year. Most of the pandemic traders have left the market and investors appear too reactive against any negative news at the moment. Same happened last time we got the report too, my portfolio bounces like a basketball (god I can't imagine crypto investors). Despite all the discount lack of stock buybacks is also discouraging.

That said, for the long game this may not be the perfect time to invest but it's one of the better times I believe (in a well thought and diversified portfolio). Higher rates will hurt growth stocks but financially sound and well established firms are appealing.

[Spicyryan]

It is going to be a rough year. Most of the pandemic traders have left the market and investors appear too reactive against any negative news at the moment. Same happened last time we got the report too, my portfolio bounces like a basketball (god I can't imagine crypto investors).

While I am laying in wait for the next leg down for BTC, it actually remained constant the entire day after rising 1% in the prior days. That quiet before the storm, but in time BTC should eventually decuple from the stock market.

[Mayareira]

While I am laying in wait for the next leg down for BTC, it actually remained constant the entire day after rising 1% in the prior days. That quiet before the storm, but in time BTC should eventually decuple from the stock market.

If it actually manages to remain reasonably stable throughout the impending recession it’ll have strong positive effect on its fortunes. Lost as much as bubble stocks last year and avoided a total collapse which makes it battle tested…at least to a degree.

[Spicyryan]

If it actually manages to remain reasonably stable throughout the impending recession it’ll have strong positive effect on its fortunes. Lost as much as bubble stocks last year and avoided a total collapse which makes it battle tested…at least to a degree.

Well it's down to 16.7-.8k from the ~43k it was a year ago today. So I wouldn't say that. It sometimes doesn't really move when the markets do though, like yesterday. Still correlated overall.

Its going to take more cycles before it becomes less volatile.

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...Yx9r64OCQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...KOTfHJL9A&s=19

[Fondue]

Why do you post these every week?
Who is this big for

[Spicyryan]

Why do you post these every week?
Who is this big for

Employment numbers? I mean they don't have to be "big", but they are somewhat relevant.

[Kaslo]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1...o674iQPO6GypAQ

[Yabby]

It's still crazy to me that low unemployment and high job numbers have got so good, they are bad. Hitting 5% unemployment was a milestone for some admins but right now it seems like every time these numbers come out, the market hits red (Not today from what i can see) because the feds keep hiking rates. You want to grow, but if you grow too fast shit hits the fan.

[archibaldcrane]

Why do you post these every week?
Who is this big for

The monthly job report isn't every week

[archibaldcrane]

2022 had the second most jobs added in US history, only behind 2021.

[Spicyryan]

It's still crazy to me that low unemployment and high job numbers have got so good, they are bad. Hitting 5% unemployment was a milestone for some admins but right now it seems like every time these numbers come out, the market hits red (Not today from what i can see) because the feds keep hiking rates. You want to grow, but if you grow too fast shit hits the fan.

That's because it is crazy because it is a bullshit number. That is the U3. The U6 is 6.7%. Even then, it's just part of the whole picture. Personal savings are below 2008 levels now, purchasing power has continued to decline, mortgage delinquency is expected to rise, etc.

2022 had the second most jobs added in US history, only behind 2021.

Yes two years after hitting unemployment numbers second only to the Great Depression due to a pandemic. Saw many jobs were added back. What a shocker.

[archibaldcrane]

Unemployment was 4% in January 2022, it wasn't something needing major recovery

[archibaldcrane]

That's because it is crazy because it is a bullshit number. That is the U3. The U6 is 6.7%.

U6 is at 6.5%, an all-time low.

Pointing to U6 to declare 3.5% unemployment bullshit is hilariously stupid