The Stock Market Is Not The Economy Thread II

[Mayareira]

Strong job market welcomed today by the stock market because it came along with cooling wages.

Market optimistically priced the possibility of not requiring extended interest rate hikes to tame the inflation.

[Spicyryan]

U6 is at 6.5%, an all-time low.

Pointing to U6 to declare 3.5% unemployment bullshit is hilariously stupid

So, it's not a bullshit number because numbers don't lie. Its bullshit because the U3 is used to minimize the status of unemployment. The U6 is more complete. Even then only, what, roughly two thirds of adults are being counted in the first place?

[Yabby]

Spicy: Numbers don't lie

Also Spicy: These numbers lie.

[Delayed]

Its weird these numbers are being posted when there's 7milion able bodied men who are actively refusing to seek any type of employment.
Unemployment figures are so widely skewed, it is hard to use as real.

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[Mayareira]

I suppose it'd be hard to measure the specific motivation behind said 7 million. They might've simply left the work force voluntarily and retired early, with the safety net of wealth transfer through inheritance. Might've been heavy investors during pandemic, etc.

If anything COVID accelerated the process.

[Yabby]

Its weird these numbers are being posted when there's 7milion able bodied men who are actively refusing to seek any type of employment.
Unemployment figures are so widely skewed, it is hard to use as real.

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How do you even find these numbers? If they are not seeking employment, and they are not on unemployment... how do people find them and post these numbers? I've never been asked if i'm an able-bodied unemployed person.

[Mayareira]

I suppose they could filter the population data using age, disability status, employment status, unemployment benefits etc. and gain an approximate number. Of course that'll give you a broad number which includes people living on savings, given up seeking employment due to ageism, being short on required skills (ie mismatch of skills), retured due to frustration with COVID and worklife in general etc.

That's why the easier part is to get to that number for the departments with statistical data at hand. Harder one is to figure out the motivational breakdown of their behavior and how to make them re-join the workforce.

[Mythe_Seraph]

Strong job market welcomed today by the stock market because it came along with cooling wages.

Market optimistically priced the possibility of not requiring extended interest rate hikes to tame the inflation.

Meanwhile the fed is explicitly stating to cool it because we’re up shits creek.

[archibaldcrane]

Its weird these numbers are being posted when there's 7milion able bodied men who are actively refusing to seek any type of employment.
Unemployment figures are so widely skewed, it is hard to use as real.

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Prime age employment percentage is within 2% of its all-time peak. Trying to unskew the U3 unemployment numbers when all the other metrics are at or near their highs as well is silly.

[Spicyryan]

Spicy: Numbers don't lie

Also Spicy: These numbers lie.

What is reading comprehension for 500, Alex.

Also, Insider trading is only okay if you are a senator.

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/s...s4WcHws9w&s=19

[Yabby]

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...7Q71TPpJg&s=19

Seems good

[archibaldcrane]

Also promising

https://twitter.com/DanielBZhao/stat...MG2T_k8Bw&s=19

[kuronosan]

Yes, recovery by 50% so promising

[Spicyryan]

Lol, Inflation is well over 6% for a long ass time and it's a "good sign" for households. These pundits being tone deaf is a noteworthy reason of why the average person doesn't trust the media anymore.

[Salodin]

But it is good news. Things are improving in that is good.

If you put anymore weight into that statement than "this is good for us" then that's on you lol

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[archibaldcrane]

Yes, recovery by 50% so promising

Correct

[arus2001]

Then CEOs, landlords, insurers, big pharma, banks, etc. decide their margins aren't fat enough so they just move the goalpost again and we all pay for it. Or we still sticking to the lie that this is the fault of stimulus checks and people not wanting to work?

[Spicyryan]

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/s...T_8ZHaSwQ&s=19

[Zealot]

I usually have a banana or instant oatmeal for breakfast.

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