{COVID-19} Pandemic Vomit VI

[Milkster]

You are people. All you've done the last year is doompost.

[Tyrath]

I don't understand logic like this at all. India is less than 10% first dose vaccinated. The USA is 43%. It's not even remotely comparable. Unless vaccines don't work.

Just to give actual numbers to this

17 mil out of 1.3 bil are fully vaccinated. Aka 1.25%~

109 mil out of 1.3 bil have one dose. Aka 8%~

Using India as a gauge of how our vaccinated reopening will go doesn't make sense at all.

My state (MA) is going for full reopening by August. And honestly we're doing amazing at vaccines and anyone who wants the vaccine should be able to get both doses by then. We also have the lowest vax hesitation in the country at 7% so thats sweet.

[Tyrath]

You are people. All you've done the last year is doompost.

-Tymon

[Ayn]

I don't understand logic like this at all. India is less than 10% first dose vaccinated. The USA is 43%. It's not even remotely comparable. Unless vaccines don't work.

I communicated that poorly, my apologies.

I'm relieved that the numbers are going down, which is a positive sign (I live in CA).

I have numerous friends and family outside of the state that don't have those promising numbers. Family members in particular are seeing those and acting like "COVID is gone! Time to plan a trip!".

A few associates of mine have been downplaying it from the start which has fueled some of the cynicism (i.e. my comments "knowing some people here").

I also have friends who have quite a few family members in India (Delhi) who have had relatives die and had been talking them through that, so that's been weighing on my mind.

Thus all of that got jumbled up in my initial post.

My bad on how it came across.

Covid has made people so pessimistic that we could completely beat the virus and people would still be doomposting about how we're only a few weeks away from the next pandemic

I am not sure if this was directed at me, but fair enough if so.

[Tymon]

I communicated that poorly, my apologies.

I'm relieved that the numbers are going down, which is a positive sign (I live in CA).

I have numerous friends and family outside of the state that don't have those promising numbers. Family members in particular are seeing those and acting like "COVID is gone! Time to plan a trip!".

A few associates of mine have been downplaying it from the start which has fueled some of the cynicism (i.e. my comments "knowing some people here").

I also have friends who have quite a few family members in India (Delhi) who have had relatives die and had been talking them through that, so that's been weighing on my mind.

Thus all of that got jumbled up in my initial post.

My bad on how it came across.



I am not sure if this was directed at me, but fair enough if so.

I was just making a statement, not directed at you.

No need to apologize. I'm just trying to hopefully help people be more optimistic about where we are even if the overall state of the world is pretty awful. Having been in a dark place myself over all this (with a not so friendly jab above referencing it) I just get frustrated on folks behalf if I see what seems to be unnecessary pessimism.

I stopped doomposting right around when we learned that the vaccine was >90% effective.

[Ayn]

Sorry to hear about being in that dark place; that sucks. I've been heartened by seeing how some of the good friends in my life have really stepped up, while also cringing a bit at seeing the sides of people that were always there, but really highlighted by this. So I also think some of my own pessimism was leaking out there, but it's sort of a personal fault: Once I see certain sides of people I'm not really good about brushing it aside and pretending like nothing happened.

As I noted in my post; most people close to me live out of the area, so I'm naturally itching to be able to fly with some confidence. I'd feel ok-ish doing it now, but a number of the people I want to see are also equally cautious, so we're sort of playing a waiting game. I think I'll feel a lot more confident this positive trend continues through the summer.

[Roranora]

as long as we have high rates of transmission in other areas of the world there exists the possibility of mutation that could bypass our vaccines

we live in a world etc, and India going full-Sweden is perhaps not great

[Kaslo]

I just approach the numbers like I approach new Square Enix announcements, cautiously optimistic but willing to expect failure. If I'm wrong, I'm pleasantly surprised.

[Mrbeansman]

Real talk how probable is that both a mutation happens and that it makes the vaccines useless?

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[Roranora]

Real talk how probable is that both a mutation happens and that it makes the vaccines useless?

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this is neither known nor knowable. it approaches 0 with scant transmission and approaches 1 with infinite transmission

we ought simply do our best keeping the virus from spreading billions of times

[Dimmauk]

as long as we have high rates of transmission in other areas of the world there exists the possibility of mutation that could bypass our vaccines

we live in a world etc, and India going full-Sweden is perhaps not great

As with most of the problems of our world, religion and politics are to blame for the current state of the pandemic in India.

[Salodin]

Real talk how probable is that both a mutation happens and that it makes the vaccines useless?

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Roll a d20, on crit your vaccine fails

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[Tyrath]

Roll a d20, on crit your vaccine fails

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More like roll a d100000000000, but it's rolled with every new transmission

[Tymon]

Real talk how probable is that both a mutation happens and that it makes the vaccines useless?

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It's believed to be a good deal more likely for the Adenovirus vaccines, most noteworthy of these being J&J and AZ.

There is quite a bit of research and chatter going on that leads many to speculate that the mRNA vaccines might be pretty safely good no matter what. Perfect no, but well within the threshold of "effective vaccine" even in the worst case scenario.

The thought is that if the virus somehow manages to mutate so much as to evade even the mRNA protection, then it wouldn't even be effective as a virus anymore and would be no danger to the population. Something like that.

tl;dr the vaccines are really amazing and its not worth talking about doomsday mutations until one happens, if one happens, and in the meantime we have our answer anyway.

[Tymon]

Just as a factor of evolutionary biology we beat the virus a little bit every day.

Huge radical mutations of viruses almost always end up less deadly. A virus that kills more people is a bad virus because the virus has less hosts.

For all we know, what we recognize as the common cold could have been as deadly or more than COVID however many thousands or more years ago when it emerged.

[Gadritan]

I just approach the numbers like I approach new Square Enix announcements, cautiously optimistic but willing to expect failure. If I'm wrong, I'm pleasantly surprised.

Look forward to it.

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[NynJa]

Literally everyone: If you have come into contact with someone with COVID or develop COVID symptoms, you need to isolate for 14 days.

Ontario: You get 3 sick days.

[Tymon]

They should start firing COVID patients and publicly shaming them, I'm sure nothing could be worse than their PR is already

[NynJa]

like that?

[Rhyis.]

Literally everyone: If you have come into contact with someone with COVID or develop COVID symptoms, you need to isolate for 14 days.

Ontario: You get 3 sick days.

what do either of these things have to do with each other? the ministry of labour wasn't going to go from three unpaid sick days as the standard across the province to fourteen paid sick days (or more accurately ten paid sick days i suppose). that just isn't going to happen

bill 47 just came out in 2019 and upping it within 2 years is pretty huge.