Putin in Russia (II): Spicy Island Liberation Front

[Spicyryan]

So it begins: the slow process of pulling out of a losing war.

Don't be so sure. Russia won't pull out of Crimea. The war will not end because of one grand offensive. Nor will the question of Donetsk and Luhansk be settled even if retaken.

[Andalusian girls]

So it begins: the slow process of pulling out of a losing war.

it ain't all that slow, this war has only been going on for six months and Russia's strategic position has totally collapsed from encircling Kyiv to wholesale rout in the face of a modest Ukrainian offensive.

Ukrainian offensive capabilities remain mild and Russia can still brute force certain outcomes (see the missile attack on energy infrastructure) but the deterioration of their ability to wage war is p incredible to witness in real time.

[Forte]

I'm not at all saying I know what's going to happen. I'm just saying that having a loss of this scale is kind of hard to hide. It's one thing to throw poor kids from your less liked regions into a meat grinder, it's another to watch the gains that took 6 months to get evaporate at this rate. When even the pundits are going "Who lied to Putin about this war being easy" you know the narrative they've been trying to spin is collapsing.

I'm not saying Putin is going anywhere. I'm saying that I have no idea what's going to happen next. I'm saying that the stalemate that has existed for what, the last 3 months, is breaking. Into what? Who knows...

[Forte]

https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/s...43867215728640

Yeah, this ain't usual.

[Andalusian girls]

it is an uncontrolled retreat and the abandonment of huge quantities of material indicates a morale collapse, units concerned with continued fighting take as much with them as they can. but that is not surprising, Russian combat units are poorly led by both junior and senior officers, suffer from a critical shortage of NCOs, and are not well supplied. maintaining morale under such conditions when subject to continuos combat is essentially impossible.

that said Ukrainian mobility remains minimal as their forces are largely nonmechanized, they advance as far as soldiers can march and soldiers only march as far as supply lines can sustain them. unless the Russians have absolutely 0 fight left in them, which is wishful thinking, the Ukrainian offensive is probably going to peter out soon by way of logistics. and resistance is also likely to be much stiffer should the Ukrainians advance to the Donetsk Oblast regions with their large and heavily-armed Russian-speaking breakaway populations.

that said Russia's military was structured to overwhelm an enemy during a short engagement and is not designed to conduct an extended war, and they are clearly running into material and manpower shortages as well as the morale issues. their ability to project enough military force to maintain regional supremacy is extremely suspect, and so long as the Ukrainians continue to erode their qualitative military edge through gifted Western tech it is becoming increasingly apparent the Russians are incapable of winning the war by their own terms.

whether that means Ukraine regains all its lost territory is another matter, they were incapable of reintegrating the breakaway provinces for years before the Russian invasion. war is not readily deterministic but it does operate by the laws of momentum and Russia's strategic momentum has been eroding for months. will be difficult for them to meaningfully reverse it.

[Spicyryan]

it is an uncontrolled retreat and the abandonment of huge quantities of material indicates a morale collapse, units concerned with continued fighting take as much with them as they can.

that said Ukrainian mobility remains minimal as their forces are largely nonmechanized, they advance as far as soldiers can march and soldiers can only march as far as supply lines can sustain them. unless the Russians have absolutely 0 fight left in them, which is wishful thinking, the Ukrainian offensive is probably going to peter out soon by way of logistics. and resistance is also likely to be much stiffer should the Ukrainians advance to the Donetsk Oblast regions with their large and heavily-armed Russian-speaking breakaway populations.

that said Russia's military was structured to overwhelm an enemy during a short engagement and is not designed to conduct an extended war, and they are clearly running into material and manpower shortages. their ability to project enough military force to maintain regional supremacy is extremely suspect, and so long as the Ukrainians continue to erode their qualitative military edge through gifted Western tech it is becoming increasingly apparent the Russians are incapable of winning the war by their own terms. whether that means Ukraine regains all its lost territory is another matter, they were incapable of reintegrating the breakaway provinces for years before the Russian invasion.

I agree, except on the DPR and LPR. They have been largely conscripted, equiped with trash-such as WW1 era machine guns and rifles-and bearing the brunt of the Russian losses. There is scarcely a man left in the capitals of these republics and instead teenage boys at best.

So, they may be pro-Russian, but they are rather exhausted.

[Forte]

Like I said, I am both intensely curious and deathly afraid of what happens next.

[Outlaw]

This is just all part of the plan. The Special Military Operation is over! They got all the Nazis!

Seriously though. I'm betting they are going to regroup, and focus on others areas that maybe they can take without much resistance. If they have any troops left that is.

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[Forte]

This is just all part of the plan. The Special Military Operation is over! They got all the Nazis!

Seriously though. I'm betting they are going to regroup, and focus on others areas that maybe they can take without much resistance. If they have any troops left that is.

Sent from my SM-A505U1 using Tapatalk

Men are somewhat easy to replace. Not replace well, but throw at the enemy. That was the whole problem with Germany in WW2 fighting Russia. The other part was fighting during the winter, and guess what season is coming...

The thing is, while it's easy to replace men, it's hard to replace weapons. And yes, I know I'm ignoring the training and morale and all that shit, but my point is, even if they COULD just shit out more men for the meat grinder, losing whole ass tanks because soldiers run away from them is not gonna let you win the war. They're going to fucking North Korea for weapons now. North god damn Korea.

[kuronosan]

They'll just regroup. Ain't no way the current regime takes this loss lightly.

They'll fall back so they can try to patch their anti-missile batteries to effectively counter HIMARS... who knows how long that will take. Meanwhile, more systems will flow into Ukraine.

Maybe during this break, Russia can take a few classes on OPSEC. Its almost too easy for our boys and girls to identify all of their critical targets right now.

[archibaldcrane]

It's just wild that there are supposedly tuned-in pundits that have been triple-wrong so far - Russia won't invade, Kiev will fall, Ukraine won't be able to recapture territory.

[Jaybar]

Well if they report the opposite they will suffer a sudden, random yet tragic fall from a high rise balcony.

[Forte]

They'll just regroup. Ain't no way the current regime takes this loss lightly.

I question their ability TO regroup after losing all this hardware.

[Zealot]

This was all totally planned by Russia to abandon useless territory and weigh down Ukrainians with garbage arms and ammo so they can encircle and trap the Ukrainians, totally genius move by Putin, the smartest man alive.

[kuronosan]

I question their ability TO regroup after losing all this hardware.

That's not really their MO though. While things certainly don't look good on that front don't underestimate the power of propaganda.

[Day]

It's just wild that there are supposedly tuned-in pundits that have been triple-wrong so far - Russia won't invade, Kiev will fall, Ukraine won't be able to recapture territory.

really makes you wonder if they are worth listening to at all

[Forte]

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/statu...75182481145863

It keeps happening.

[Forte]

That's not really their MO though. While things certainly don't look good on that front don't underestimate the power of propaganda.

So what IS their MO? Please explain to me what the point of throwing unarmed men into a grinder. What will this accomplish? Do you think the ones on the ground will even be willing to do this?

[Andalusian girls]

They'll just regroup. Ain't no way the current regime takes this loss lightly.

regrouping is easier said than done. Russia is suffering manpower shortages, to the extent our intelligence agencies are currently reporting them as "severe". Russia's armed forces infrastructure was always top-heavy and depth-deficient, designed to overwhelm quickly rather than engage in sustained fighting. Putin has hitherto refused to countenance mass mobilization or calling up reservists for fear of civilian backlash, and we are seeing the limits of mostly voluntary Russian manpower. they have deployed almost every existing battalion capable of maneuver they possess (roughly 110 of the 170 that existed prewar), and nearly all of them have taken combat losses, most heavy enough to the point of absolute deterioration in combat strength.

perhaps worse for them Russia has no strategic reserve of significance, and with full deployment they have no ability to cycle out units which has, and will continue to, degrade the effectiveness of those presently deployed. add in the Western embargos and Russia's slim reserves of modern military equipment (they are still awash with a surfeit of Soviet-era equipment) and you see a state that is exhausting its offensive capabilities. they are weaker today than when they began the war, while Ukrainian military strength continues to wax with the influx of Western material. no Ukrainian force has ever been as modern as the one that launched this offensive.

as an autocracy Russian can force men into arms of course, though their abilities as a soldier will leave much to be desired and the political fallout is at least feared to be of sufficient magnitude that the Kremlin is currently trying to enlist prisoners rather than call up reserves. but it will take a significantly greater and costlier effort from the regime to build up their forces enough to take back the initiative.

note that none of this is deterministic. the Ukrainian military was awful, old, and poor at the start of this war, and Russia comparatively spends a tremendous amount on theirs (we're talking $6 billion vs $70 billion). there's no guarantee the West will continue to arm the Ukrainians to the extent they have and Ukraine has 0 ability to sustain itself without that aid. Winter is coming, and Ukranian forces are exhausted themselves after this level of continuous fighting. but in the estimation of this observer there is presently a clearer path to victory for the Ukrainians than the Russians.

[Andalusian girls]

It's just wild that there are supposedly tuned-in pundits that have been triple-wrong so far - Russia won't invade, Kiev will fall, Ukraine won't be able to recapture territory.

i'm not sure which pundits you're speaking of exactly (i don't watch CNN) but i don't know many actual observers of the region who didn't believe war was inevitable the second Putin began massing troops, nor many who continued to vouch for the defensive efficacy of Russian arms after the initial failed offensives.