Probably not. Honestly Anyone people think may be an obvious presidential favorite this far out is probably going to turn out to not be correct. A whole lot can change in two years, a lot more in four years. In the lead up to 2016 I loled a lot at the suggestion of Biden running for president, let alone winning and passing a whole lot of good shit in his administration.
Another thing to remember is that in 2024 the Dems will have a new presidential primary process that no longer stars Iowa. They have been considering South Carolina or Michigan and some others instead.
I haven't checked this guy's math but
https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1...MjlgvfQKw&s=19
CA 41, 47 and 49 should be locks at this point, so that's great
CA-13 should be fine too. CA-22 is going to be tight.
Basically if New York State hadn't completely shit the bed the Dems would probably retain the House (and still have a shot)
Lots of people are correctly blaming Cuomo for being a shitty toxic male that damaged Dems rep in upstate New York (and putting up the judges that wrecked the NY gerrymander). But don't forget to hate Manchin and Sinema for refusing to pass voting protections that could have helped a lot more.
Conventional wisdom seems to be that all the mail ballots from CA, NV, and AZ are gonna take days to count. Maybe even weeks. Last election there was an Iowa house seat that came down to like 8 votes that dragged on for months.
May just come down to who wants to recount and litigate the most.
Hnnnnnngghhhhhhhh
https://twitter.com/noboa/status/159...808733189?s=20
End it already.
Clark county dropped, Masto got 65% of the vote and closed the gap by 5k. At that rate, she would win this race.
In all the #CO3 rumors floating around "Ppl are saying" that there are 5,000 uncounted overseas military ballots for the district, but that they may be favoring Frisch. Frisch has dragged Boebert for voting against the burn pits healthcare bill that Dems passed as well as voting against awarding the Capitol police medals for their bravery, calling military generals "woke" idiots etc. Back in 2020 there were supposedly a number of overseas military ballots that Trump assumed would win him Georgia but, well...
5000 overseas military in one district sounds like a ton