2023 NFL Off-Season Thread: i didnt see a week 1 thread so,

[Rhyis.]

Interesting info.



Read spoilers for explanation.

Spoiler: show

Net rest is the extra number of rest days a team has over their opponent per game, summed over the course of the season.

Last year, three teams had net rest edges of negative-10 days or worse: Packers (-12), Patriots (-10), and Texans (-10). All three fell below their expected win total.

The two teams with the best net rest edges last year, the Bills (+12) and Lions (+11), went over their win totals. Buffalo hit the over despite one fewer game because of the Demar Hamlin injury, and the Lions were one of the most surprising success stories of 2022.

Rest edges also matter for weekly lines.

Last year, teams with a net rest edge of three or more days went 32-24-1 (57%) and covered the spread at a 54.4% rate.

It is even more valuable later in the season.

Since 2015, teams with a three or more day rest advantage from Week 13 onward have won 55.2% of their games and have covered the spread in 55.7% of games over a 106-game sample.

This is despite the betting lines at times being “adjusted” to account for these rest edges.

Understanding rest and prep advantages is a great way to find an edge both in NFL win totals and weekly game lines.

[Krandor]

So the story there is fuck the Niners and the Rams

[Rhyis.]

goodell out to getcha

[Rhyis.]

i aint mad about it

[Koyangi]

Now do a chart about traveling to/from games that change time zones. IIRC the Steelers last season had 0 time zone changes all season long.

[Rhyis.]

the above chart/article accounts for: the time of the day the game happens (noon, afternoon, night), road travel time, time zone changes, etc

its all worked in

[Koyangi]

If 2 teams separately played a Sunday 1pm start game, then one of those teams has to fly to play the other next week so their game's start time is equal distance between both of their previous games, but only 1 team had to time zone change, then a time zone change effect will play into the traveling team, but they have no more or less rest than each other. That kind of tracking.

[Rhyis.]

If 2 teams separately played a Sunday 1pm start game, then one of those teams has to fly to play the other next week so their game's start time is equal distance between both of their previous games, but only 1 team had to time zone change, then a time zone change effect will play into the traveling team. That kind of tracking.

yes, i get that. it's all in the article and one of the dozen rest variables, i just didn't link the article. only one of the charts.
if a team gets even a small amount of rest over their opponent that is counted as a rest edge
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...nfl-schedule/#
they just don't specifically pull that data and put it as an individual chart line. it's just in there with the dozen other variables that account for getting more rest

but they have no more or less rest than each other.

losing/gaining literal time from a time zone change is a rest advantage/disadvantage

[Mertron]

big rip

https://twitter.com/ap_nfl/status/16...xIghEsrQibgLug

one of my favorite players from before i ever watched football, just a complete bulldozer

[Xno Kappa]

Bout to go beat the shit out of Pryor for his money.

[Cail]

https://twitter.com/adamschefter/sta...gIRK2bOMcBVXxg

[Rhyis.]

mediocre signing of the week

[Weltall]

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/sta...120714254?s=20

[Melena]

Makes sense. From what I'm reading, it does require both QB's to be knocked out due to injury, and if any time one of the first two QB's gets cleared, you have to pull your third out.

[Cail]

https://twitter.com/adamschefter/sta...gIRK2bOMcBVXxg

Yikes for players and fans

[Mertron]

is it a reverse flex and they’ll put shitty games there

[Cail]

https://twitter.com/adamschefter/sta...gIRK2bOMcBVXxg

[Xno Kappa]

Rare W from Mark Davis

https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/s...4cFnT_86rk5g5Q

[Xno Kappa]

AG catching random strays.

[Krandor]

Flex scheduling for Thursday games is monumentally stupid