The Economy Thread III: Not Actual Advice And You Shouldn't Lie To Investors

[Andalusian girls]

the economy is growing peachy keen but there are deep structural issues that make me hesitant to claim everything's fine and flowers pick themselves. homelessness is at an all-time high and drastically spiked in 2023 as housing prices remain ghastly and home ownership beyond the reach of much of the country. bankruptcies surged in 2023 as well with the unique American phenomenon of about half of them resulting from medical procedures. inflation is under control but the big 3 year spike lead to drastically increased prices in the absence of a big pay raise (which most of the country got, even if we are still just getting back to pre-covid returns).

basically if you're already winning the American dream, which most of us are, you're prettier than ever. the middle is also prolly better in the aggregate and this is where the biggest vibe/reality divide exists, a Reagan speechifier would have them thinking golden times were ahead. but if you're at the bottom buddy you are about as fucked as you've ever been, you ain't ever getting a house, you can't afford to put your kids into college to rise up, you're one diagnosis away from crashing out.

employment is good, wage growth is good, inflation is down, but so long as housing and healthcare remain so deeply fucked so remain broad swathes of the country.

[Kaslo]

the economy is growing as there are deep structural issues that make me hesitant to claim everything's fine and flowers pick themselves. homelessness is at an all-time high and drastically spiked in 2023 as housing prices remain ghastly and home ownership beyond the reach of much of the country. bankruptcies surged in 2023 as well with the unique American phenomenon of about half of them resulting from medical procedures. inflation is under control but the big 3 year spike lead to drastically increased prices for all in the absence of a big pay raise.

basically i think if you're already winning the American dream, which most of us are, you're prettier than ever. the middle is also prolly better in the aggregate and this is where the biggest vice/reality divide exists, a Reagan speechifier would have them thinking golden times were ahead. but if you're at the bottom buddy you are about as fucked as you've ever been, you ain't ever getting a house, you can't afford to put your kids into college to rise up, you're one diagnosis away from crashing out.

The bottom hasn't paid to send their kids to college in decades (if ever)

[Meresgi]

The bottom hasn't paid to send their kids to college in decades (if ever)

What are you referencing? That they aren't going to college at all? Or do you think the Pell Grant system is actually capable of meeting the current tuition of colleges? If the former, they are sending kids to college here and there but the cost is astronomical so many just don't want that debt.

If the latter, lol fuck no. Pell Grants are based on your income. My family wasn't poverty but combined household income was around 35k or something crazy low, I qualified for the Pell Grants but had to go through hoops to get my award every single fucking year with tons of effort to prove the income of myself and family etc etc because we love means checks! Beyond that, I was manipulated into going to a for profit college for a couple years, which ate up all of my pell grants. Now said college was finally closed down by the government, but those pell grants are gone forever, they don't come back even if the college turns out to be shady and even that took around 15yrs to come to fruition despite all of the clear evidence.

On top of that, those pell grants didn't just give me 100% college tuition, I still had to take out loans with the government despite having the max pell grant allotment given to me at the time, so I still had a lot of student loans stacked up and I was fucking lucky that I both could take out govt loans and that most of my loans were from awhile ago so they didn't have insane interest rates on them.

[Salodin]

The bottom hasn't paid to send their kids to college in decades (if ever)

This is just out of touch. The truth is so much more complicated than that. Not everyone can live at home and go to a local community college that offers the exact degree they're looking for, or proper job prospects after. And if that isn't you, then likely the grant isn't enough to cover tuition.

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[Tyrath]

I'm starting to think lawyers are really out of touch with the poors

[Meresgi]

This is just out of touch. The truth is so much more complicated than that. Not everyone can live at home and go to a local community college that offers the exact degree they're looking for, or proper job prospects after. And if that isn't you, then likely the grant isn't enough to cover tuition.

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Also 80% of the point of college is making contacts in your field and getting some nepo bumps hopefully. Community college is a great starting point but if you're looking to branch out into engineering or sciences or maths or anything from your rural small town...you need to go somewhere bigger for your education (not to mention rural community colleges are often out dated and pretty shitty, I was lucky that I was in NY but even the SUNY schools in upstate NY are pretty shitty in spots).

Also also....people change, you might go to school for 1 degree and realize it's not for you or the market is gone (because that shit happens) and end up having to go back to school...oh wait you spent a chunk of your pell grant and there's no do overs you poor fucker, suck it up and take out loans now

[arus2001]

What do you mean you're not Nostradamus and divined your career path at the ripe old age of 18? Skill issue tbh

[Kaslo]

I'm starting to think lawyers are really out of touch with the poors

I was a poor, I'm referencing grants and loans. My parents never gave me a cent for college. While the loan system is broken, it doesn't change the fact that poor parents aren't paying to send kids to college.

[Salodin]

I was a poor, I'm referencing grants and loans. My parents never gave me a cent for college. While the loan system is broken, it doesn't change the fact that poor parents aren't paying to send kids to college.

*Extreme amounts of context missing*

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[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/185...TAy0_i-fA&s=19

Hurricanes impacting both hiring and data collection. Curious if this pushes the fed to a 50 point rate cut instead of the expected 25 on Thursday.

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[Zetanio]

i'd be surprised if that was the major cause. i think the overall tepid response in the mortgage market to the rate cut is a much bigger issue. could be both though. i'm expecting 50.

[Kaslo]

*Extreme amounts of context missing*

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Is there? I'm struggling to see how people making less than 50k were paying for their kid's college in 2001...

[Salodin]

Is there? I'm struggling to see how people making less than 50k were paying for their kid's college in 2001...

Oh no, the closest college is too far away. How is my kid gonna afford an apartment and the associated bills?

There isn't even a guarantee that the pell grant covers all their tuition and books (it certainly didn't cover mine 100% when I went to a community college). You can't say with a straight face that the grant takes care of the student 100% for the 4 years it MIGHT take to finish a bachelor's; assuming it doesn't take them 4.5-5 years like is not unheard of or even uncommon.

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[Kaslo]

Oh no, the closest college is too far away. How is my kid gonna afford an apartment and the associated bills?

There isn't even a guarantee that the pell grant covers all their tuition and books (it certainly didn't cover mine 100% when I went to a community college). You can't say with a straight face that the grant takes care of the student 100% for the 4 years it MIGHT take to finish a bachelor's; assuming it doesn't take them 4.5-5 years like is not unheard of or even uncommon.

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I didn't say pell grants only. I said grants and loans. Again, no poor family is giving their kid money for college, they are going into debt, and that's been the case for decades.

You all are the ones upset at me for saying poor people weren't paying for their kids college, which I'm not sure where the evidence against that is.

[Meresgi]

I didn't say pell grants only. I said grants and loans. Again, no poor family is giving their kid money for college, they are going into debt, and that's been the case for decades.

You all are the ones upset at me for saying poor people weren't paying for their kids college, which I'm not sure where the evidence against that is.

Lol your statement without any other context made it sound like poor kids were getting a free ride to college, if you had added just "having to take out crazy debt" to it then no one would have seen that as an issue or out of touch comment

I was a poor, I'm referencing grants and loans. My parents never gave me a cent for college. While the loan system is broken, it doesn't change the fact that poor parents aren't paying to send kids to college.

There are still a lot of poor kids who are taking out loans that are co-owned by their parents for one reason or another (typically because the bank or college or w/e isn't going to tell you the right way to take out a loan, just how to take out the most $$), so those parents are technically paying for it in the long run when their kid might not be able to pay back the crazy ass loan.

I'd even extrapolate out and say that if your kid is awash in student loan debt, you ARE paying for it in some way. Either by having to let your kid live with you because they can't afford rent and to live by themselves, or your kid having to scrape by and stress the fuck out as you give them little bits of $$ here and there, etc etc. Shit system gonna hurt you in more ways then just your initial bank balance.

[Kaslo]

This is the most classically dumb BG argument ever.

[Salodin]

Grants and loans were not enough to pay for my university following community college. Idk why you keep trying to die on this hill. It's even worse if you count as out-of-state tuition.

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[Kaslo]

Grants and loans were not enough to pay for my university following community college. Idk why you keep trying to die on this hill. It's even worse if you count as out-of-state tuition.

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I'm not saying it is for everyone, I'm saying that poor people haven't been paying for their kids to go to college, I'm not sure where you think they have been.

They either take out loans or don't go. A 50k household simply hasn't ever had the money to pay for college.

[6souls]

https://x.com/scottmelker/status/1855019781256364424

[Kaslo]

Explain it to me like I'm 5