The Economy Thread III: Not Actual Advice And You Shouldn't Lie To Investors

[Zetanio]

The Santa Clara, California-based company is also suspending its stock dividend as part of a broader plan to cut costs.

This is actually a bigger part of the story than the layoffs from an economic standpoint imo.

[Zetanio]

Also, they're a domestic chip manufacturer so they'll basically end up nearly nationalized like Boeing. The CHIPS act is building them a few fabs already.

[archibaldcrane]

Remember when I said we're going to wait too long to cut rates?

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...FaYSjJtjA&s=19

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[archibaldcrane]

The Sahm rule, named for economist Claudia Sahm:

If the three-month average of the unemployment rate is ½ percentage point or more above its low over the prior twelve months, then the US is in the early months of a recession. The Sahm rule has triggered within, but never outside, every recession since the 1970s.

She devised this as one of the earliest recession indicators, with the desire for a set of macroeconomic stabilizers to kick in if triggered, warding off the (otherwise extremely likely) recession.

We haven't implemented her idea though.

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[Zetanio]

We'll see. I'm not buying it tbh.

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...pZDjLajug&s=19

Sounds like they should've cut yesterday instead of sitting on their hands

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[Zetanio]

Meh. People put way way too much emphasis on these things. Joe wants clicks and listeners for Odd Lots. I am pretty unconcerned with equity losses as well. Market's still up 20% on the year. If we get into losses for the year I'll get worried.

[archibaldcrane]

On the other hand, the prime age labor force participation rate has hit a 23 year high

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

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[Bombur]

There is a massive Global Stock Sell-off going on right now. In Japan, the Nikkei is down like 7% so far. South Korea has halted all sell orders.

Something to look out for, when the US markets open up tomorrow.

[Krandor]

Tomorrow is likely going to be rough but one should never use the Nikkei as a model to follow, Japan has been in a recession for 3 decades now

[Mayareira]

NASDAQ and S&P futures indicate a serious selloff ahead of market opening. Nikkei's worst day since 80's.

Looks like an all expected "correction" is happening worldwide also indicating a liquidity shortage.

[Richybear]

Buy the dip on Enron!

[Zetanio]

when i dip u dip we dip

[Krandor]

Schwab's login servers seem to be down, that's a great sign. Let me buy the dip gdi

[Zetanio]

guys i'm really glad that bitcoin is acting, as it should, as hedge against the equity mark-

wait.

wait what?

[Zetanio]

someone is making an absolute fucking fortune trading VIX today.

[Krandor]

Well by the time Schwab finally let me there's barely even a dip to buy, almost everything has recovered to within like 1 or 2% of where it was.

[Kaslo]

I was able to get a little bit of investment into the dip, and already seeing returns

[Daydreamer]

Wow I got lucky. I had some spare cash and threw it all in asts this morning because I was hoping to buy the dip and then right after they got some FCC approval. Went from -2% when I bought to +7%. This is the only thing on my watchlist that's even green today aside from the vix.

[Zetanio]

finviz is a sea of red. you love to see it. except AMD with the green day, y'all deserve it.