US Election Week 1: Predicting the demise of the United States.

[Tyche]

Map Prediction:


Final percentage: 50.5% Harris, 47.0% Trump

Senate: 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans

House: Democratic control, 224 seats

Bold prediction: Allred knocks off Cruise.

Why: Sampling by recall vote is going to burn pollsters. It's going to oversample Trump support. Local tragedies and the Governor's race will depress turnout in North Carolina for the GOP. Women are going to carry the election.

[Gredival]

I have Harris winning the blue wall (MN, WI, MI) through suburban votes and losing NV, NC, GA, and AZ due to lower appeal to men (including black and Hispanics) to squeak by at 270.

[Daydreamer]

Going for the crazy one



Why texas? It's been getting closer every year and while I still realistically give it low odds overall, if we have a surprise swing state I think this is it. Either way I think Tyche is correct and hopefully we oust Cruz at a minimum.

I should add I also think that if Texas does actually go blue that there will be some court shenanigans and the votes in the end will wind up red.

Edit: Apparently my pic isn't loading??? either way it's here

[Tyche]

Here's your map

[Daydreamer]

Here's your map

Thanks! Shouldn't it just be [IMG ]https://www.270towin.com/maps/QgQJN[ /IMG] but without the spaces?

Edit: My dudes. Thanks everyone! Sorry for derailing this partly due to me not knowing how to format things on a website I've been going to for almost 20 years.

[Gredival]

Thanks! Shouldn't it just be [IMG ]https://www.270towin.com/maps/QgQJN[ /IMG] but without the spaces?

You need the .png

[Tyrath]

Add a .png to that

Going for the crazy one



Why texas? It's been getting closer every year and while I still realistically give it low odds overall, if we have a surprise swing state I think this is it. Either way I think Tyche is correct and hopefully we oust Cruz at a minimum.

I should add I also think that if Texas does actually go blue that there will be some court shenanigans and the votes in the end will wind up red.

[Tyrath]

Here's mine



I'm tempted to shift Arizona blue but I held off

[synistar]

Harris will not win NV or AZ because she's Californian.

[Tyrath]

I think NV is up for grabs.

[Tyche]

Too many union workers in Nevada. No polls have really given me pause. Atlas Intel and Trafalgar have Nevada tied and their polls have leaned more Republican than the average.

[6souls]

https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1851300828956823568

[Mertron]

https://x.com/burkehenryt/status/185...523476566?s=46

[Mertron]

boring map

[Byrthnoth]

I'll take Merton's map but PA to Trump and a final score of 267D vs. 271R. If it's polling at about 50/50, not having that side of the distribution represented would be a bit cray.

[Daydreamer]

I'll take Merton's map but PA to Trump and a final score of 267D vs. 271R. If it's polling at about 50/50, not having that side of the distribution represented would be a bit cray.

Do you think the peurto rico comments will impact that though since about 600k puerto ricans live there?

[Byrthnoth]

I surely hope!

[Daydreamer]

I realize now that you were saying that you are taking your initial stance to have a trump win on the board, which yeah ... totally fair.

I'm really expecting a landslide, but I don't now which way the landslide will fall.

[synistar]

For Senate, I have Repubs flipping NV, WV, MT.

Senate makeup will be 53-47 R.

Would not be shocked if the GOP picks up 5 seats - AZ, PA, OH, and MI being coin tosses.

[Andalusian girls]

aye, Kamala may well take it but Democrats maintaining control of the Senate is far less likely. even the House might be in play for the ultimate nightmare scenario.

but realistically

Spoiler: show