Two Term Celebrity Politician - JD Vance Missing Persons Coldcase

[Tyrath]

https://x.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1854164649433858119

[Fiye]

Looks like RFKjr and Stein each had enough votes in Wisconsin that would have been enough to push Harris over Trump.

If you think the RFK Jr vote would've gone to Harris I got a bridge to sell you

[kisada]

Dems need to stop with the centrist shit, I think Biden got the votes and turnout he got because of COVID and Trump fucking it up so bad, but because he also promised a lot of progressive things (Many he didn't deliver on fully but that's typical). Kamala and the Dems this time around went with "Orange man bad!" which doesn't get the turnout you need and then if you're trying to be centrist to appeal to people who aren't going to fucking vote for you in the first place....you're going to alienate the people who would come out.

It fucking sucks, cuz yeah it's gonna hurt everyone. But we all saw it coming. She kept on keeping on with Israel doing their shit, telling us she was more Biden (Which people were now sick of) and had messaging like Hilary that was basically "Vote for me because i'm a woman (of color!)" which no one cares about, they want to know what you're going to do for them.

Hindsight 20/20 but I think sticking with the "GOP are weird" and getting Walz out there way more would have been a huge benefit, fuck spending any time or money with Liz Cheney.



I agree with this and I think it actually impacts the far left too. Progressive leftists want to be able to buy a house, car, feed themselves etc etc and are usually struggling the most when it comes to all this shit. We don't need to argue about "What's the right % of diversity when it comes to a Netflix adapation!" when we have people going homeless constantly.

So, I'm replying to this here (but in response to tyrath in the other thread asking me what the campaign fucked up with, since the post is who knows where, and a lot of above^ is the sentiment I share).

There are so many factors that became major issues, but I guess I'll agree: I'm of the mind that it was the centrist stuff was really bad. There are a lot of progressive policies that are popular with the country overall but dems decided that trying to appeal to the center-right was the way to go. Bandying about liz cheney like she was a fucking trophy was abysmal, to me, and was a microcosm of a message that accomplished several, shitty things at once.


A. it sent a message that it would be more of the same. probably the biggest reason (imo) that she even picked up the slack so quickly was because she was seen as not-biden for a good amount of time, particularly with the walz pick. And then the DNC happened and she was out there talmbout lethal fighting forces and putting republicans and former trumpers out there instead of even giving a crumb of time for someone to speak for the palestinian side. And this was ABSOLUTELY FUCKING INSANE to me, because the people who were most wanting to hear about a new message and new change don't want more of the same.


B. as such, that then sent a non-message about appealing to the things that are indeed popular: the war on gaza, being a prime example, as things that americans generally want to see ended. getting immigration squared away. When fox news shows a poll saying 56% of americans supports a legalization process for long-time residents, but you instead buck the trend and try to double down on more shitty republican things, you're not getting the message out that people want to hear. But this was basically due all to her wanting to stay centrist on things that people didn't want more of to begin with. Also, i think the gaza/israel thing is really its own topic but her dismissiveness of people supporting gaza from the jump was fucking tragic, from the admonitions to not giving them enough engagement. I brought it up before and never got around to elaborating, but I think she could have bridged (some of) the gap in a way that made sense. I think sometimes people feel it's really binary, like just a bit more engagement and not treating gaza supporters like children is tantamount to sending israel to the 20th level of hell.


C. in terms of other things that people wanted to hear? I think the messaging on economy was a bad one to start, and this was in-part due to a lot of what was going out there being like "oh trump is this and that" rather than really putting the hammer down on what kamala could do. When biden jumped off the train, most of what people wanted to hear was more about kamala and her policies. This was absolutely clear based off of numerous polls and discussions with focus groups, i mean like over and over and over. But their campaign either didn't get the message, or got it and didn't put enough weight into it. yes, she did highlight some things, but not enough, and this was pretty evident when it very late in the campaign she started talking about executive actions she'd take for black-owned business - which only came about because of the warning signs all over the place when it came to support from black men.


D. and that leads me to my next thing, which is, there were warning signs from the get go, non-stop, all over the place, and it just did not feel like the campaign took heed. If you are a politico reader, then you would know that (seemingly) every single week there was a new article about "warning signs for kamala with this group, that group, this state, that state." And while i always wanted to just believe it was democratic bed-wetting, there was a very clear, consistent thread connected over the past few months. Black men and latino men were not giving her the same support that they were for biden. And strategically, there were larger warning signs that the campaign wasn't utilizing the knowledge and experience of some of local strategists in the way they needed to. On monday there was a super informative article about the latino population in reading, PA, which basically talked about how there was a lot of support lacking for kamala, in a place that got little attention from the dems (though ironically they visited reading the day before). But I bring these warning signs up because it felt so obvious which audiences needed to be addressed, and going back to what people wanted to hear? These groups just didn't get enough of that. They didn't get enough of what could be done for them. They got a LOT, though, about why trump was shit, and too much (imo) about abortion. And while that shit makes sense to us, that's not the shit that makes sense to the average male who lacks in self-awareness. Ironically i would also add that one thing i did not see coming was the amount of support that young males 19-29 would shift towards trump, and while I think politico was prescient in capturing the flags with black/latino male voters, i can't recall just how much they captured the stuff with the 19-29 males.

and btw, the part about abortion i do think is my own hindsight to an extent, but at the same time i could not help but feel like it was a button pressed for far too long. I did mention it before the election, and there is a bit of irony in that i believe many people here did not see it as the biggest deciding factor in 2022 (if i'm not mistake, tyrath, you were the one who was like, uh, no, actually that was the biggest difference). But when the vast majority of the stuff people mention in early polling is "i want to hear more about the economy! i want to hear more about policy!" then maybe follow that, right?

E. more about what i think was important to hear was what was mentioned above: MORE of this "they're weird" stuff. MORE of walz getting out there. I mean there was a segment of him on the news talking to college-aged voters and he was great, and actually convinced some of them about what was what. But after the DNC, it felt like their greatest weapon was brought to heel. He seemed really neutered and I think particularly this occurred during kamala's first interview. If i'm being nitpicky, i truly cannot help but wonder if things would have been better if she responded to the question about race with trump being obsessed with it, her bringing up obama, herself, mexicans, etc, and letting walz go hog-wild with that. Being weird is one thing, but adding obsessed to it? Really simple messaging by walz gave the campaign a lot of ammo, but they didn't build on that. What i'd also add was that i did think it became very hard for her to differentiate herself from biden given she was the literal VP, but she still should have tried.




i will disagree in the part about kamala putting out votes for her because she was a woman of color, as i think she very clearly was trying to avoid that (at least from her own mouth).

anyway, those are mostly my reasons and i don't think much of it is mmqb, because it's all the shit that bothered me from the start. i'm sure i missed some stuff. and i'm sure we could talk about how biden completely screwed up everything from start to finish, but then that in itself truly is hindsight being 20/20, and is a totally different topic.

[6souls]

If you think the RFK Jr vote would've gone to Harris I got a bridge to sell you

Did I say that?

[Mrbeansman]

That's a lot of words up there when the only reason that matters is that 40% of the people in this country are shit heads that need to be put in death camps.

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[Byrthnoth]

If only we could agree on which 40%! Can I get some national unity here?

[Drai]

That's a lot of words up there when the only reason that matters is that 40% of the people in this country are shit heads that need to be put in death camps.

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I mean...it's probably because people say shit like this that they vote for the opposite side you're on right? And no, you're not the only one that says shit like this, but it turns out people don't like being told to kill themselves for existing.

[Fiye]

Did I say that?

I took it as implied. Sorry been seeing a lot of flailing online

[Tyrath]

I mean...it's probably because people say shit like this that they vote for the opposite side you're on right? And no, you're not the only one that says shit like this, but it turns out people don't like being told to kill themselves for existing.

I too vote for fascists because of a few dumb comments on the internet.

Also most of the violence, including the attempted insurrection came from the other side. Not sure how you look at that and then a dumb comment like above and act like they are on the same footing.

[Obsidian]

I mean...it's probably because people say shit like this that they vote for the opposite side you're on right? And no, you're not the only one that says shit like this, but it turns out people don't like being told to kill themselves for existing.

Which democrat groups are out there telling people to kill themselves?

[Tyche]

Donald Trump ran a fucking AWFUL campaign with one of the worst closing messages in history.

We're arguing over if Shapiro was the right choice. Trump could have given the VP to Andrew Tate and not lost a single vote. He already had the least popular ever.

The campaign Democrats ran wasn't the issue.

[Drai]

Which democrat groups are out there telling people to kill themselves?

doesn't specifically have to be "Dem groups" anyone considered by the right to be "Left" counts, and I dunno if you've seen the state of social media over the last, like, decade or so, a LOT of Left and Far Left people tell people on the Right and Far Right to kill themselves all the time, I'm not saying I agree with it, but it's a fact it happens and it's also a fact it's a factor.

The Right reacts to insults by voting harder, the Left seems to react to Insults by just not showing up to vote.

[Andalusian girls]

i understand the political maneuver of outreach towards lost demographics but also it is very funny people think a moral justification for voting in an ontologically evil political group is that people were mean to other people on the internet

i know this guy, great guy, respects his mom, pets dogs, has a black friend, great great guy, but a purple haired reddit avatar told him to check his privilege so he decided to support deporting 10 million immigrants genocide in Palestine and the institutionalized oppression of women

[Fiye]

Donald Trump ran a fucking AWFUL campaign with one of the worst closing messages in history.

We're arguing over if Shapiro was the right choice. Trump could have given the VP to Andrew Tate and not lost a single vote. He already had the least popular ever.

The campaign Democrats ran wasn't the issue.

I mean I'd argue Shapiro would have possible been a better pick than Walz because of the platform Kamala was running but like ??? there so much shit to untangle from the last 16 years that ended up here today. Like Dems need to never do a fucking coronation primary ever fucking again holy shit.

[Athas]

We can't condemn Dem's for center-right messaging and then claim it's too hostile to white males, like those two things are not compatible.

[Tyche]

Democrats literally sat out and protested because Kamala couldn't solve the Israel - Palestine Conflict. That's not a campaign issue.

[Andalusian girls]

i'd also like to see examples of exactly where the Democratic Party was sending out hostile messages towards white males

white males in America are being lost culturally first, then politically, and as usual the concept of 'to the privileged equality feels like oppression' rings true

[Karbuncle]

doesn't specifically have to be "Dem groups" anyone considered by the right to be "Left" counts, and I dunno if you've seen the state of social media over the last, like, decade or so, a LOT of Left and Far Left people tell people on the Right and Far Right to kill themselves all the time, I'm not saying I agree with it, but it's a fact it happens and it's also a fact it's a factor.

The Right reacts to insults by voting harder, the Left seems to react to Insults by just not showing up to vote.

I used to think this way too but I assure you, nobody who's convinced to vote in Donald Trump because of mean comments on the internet was ever /not/ going to vote Donald Trump. They just use that as an excuse or justification to make themselves feel or look better.

If being mean online is really their political swing factor, Donald Trump and his MAGA wouldn't win an election ever.

[Fiye]

Democrats literally sat out and protested because Kamala couldn't solve the Israel - Palestine Conflict. That's not a campaign issue.

It is when you got Bill Clinton and Richie Torres going out there campaigning in Michigan and giving pro israel messaging. Like you don't have to salt the damn wound

[Salodin]

It's literally everything. Caring too much for Palestine when she could have just said Israel has a right to defend itself against persistent terroristic threats. She could have said inflation is too high and she's gonna do something about it. She could have made it clear she isn't ambivalent to illegal immigrants and we should do something about it. Joe could have dropped out sooner and let a primary process play out where Kamala could have lost that too and we wouldn't have been stuck with a candidate that couldn't reach the end of the nomination process the last time we had one.

She definitely could have made it a point to say she isn't left, cause that's already holding her back. Shit, while she's at it she should have tried convincing people she wasn't a woman, cause that held her back too.

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