119th U.S. Congress: Good LORD what is Happening in There?

[Tymon]

The Dem candidate in MTGs old district, the most conservative in GA, overperformed +25. Lost -12, last election was -37.

The WI Supreme Court also had an election where the liberal candidate won +20, a +10 swing since only a year ago.

[Salodin]

People talk about swing this, huge swing that, who cares unless it changes the outcome of the election. Way too much copium about huge electoral swings that have zero tangible benefit to Democrats. Some have been beneficial, but I see too much cheering online in the races that Democrats still lost.

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[Tyrath]

The swings are predictors for other places which aren't as deeply red.

[Salodin]

The swings are predictors for other places which aren't as deeply red.

Yes I understand that, but even then I see people celebrating a loss as copium cause "look how far we've come since the last election cause they're unpopular like we said they were!" isn't as strong a flex as people pretend it is

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[Kaslo]

Yes I understand that, but even then I see people celebrating a loss as copium cause "look how far we've come since the last election cause they're unpopular like we said they were!" isn't as strong a flex as people pretend it is

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Hating on it is an even smaller flex tbh

[Tyrath]

Don't think anyone is trying to flex with the swings anyway lol

[synistar]

The observed partisan swing is a snapshot of the electorate that may be a relevant data point in statewide races. Polls are a small snapshot of a sample size that bother to answer surveys, pick up the spam phone call, or open the door to Cream Soda so he can get a bit of extra cash for hitting his canvasing metrics and/or step count.

Course it doesn't matter as much if turnout is complete shit because "Did Not Vote" is still the most popular choice.

[Anoat]

I think it's more an indicator that people are showing up to vote if Donald Trump is on the ballot and then they just go down ballot checking all the R boxes. If Don ain't on the ballot, they don't bother showing up to vote.

[Tymon]

Fine by me. Worship your king fellas. He did tell you you never had to vote again afterall.

[Qalbert]

obviously no idea HOW they were voting but I did early voting on the gerrymandering amendment here in VA at like 11am yesterday and the line was like 20 minutes long two weeks before the actual day so who knows

[Tyrath]

I think it's more an indicator that people are showing up to vote if Donald Trump is on the ballot and then they just go down ballot checking all the R boxes. If Don ain't on the ballot, they don't bother showing up to vote.

I think it's part of it but it's not the whole story for these massive swings. I forget the source but I saw that only Dems have flipped seats in special election since Trump got re-elected

[Krandor]

The party that is in power losing elections is not exactly a new dynamic

Edit : had an extra not in there

[Tyrath]

Yes, this is perfectly normal times we are living through.

[Salodin]

The party that is in power losing elections is not exactly a new dynamic

Edit : had an extra not in there

Yes, this is perfectly normal times we are living through.

He said it first; at the ballot box everything has been mostly common. The in party almost always loses seats. Although the point swing is larger than we're used, they're not even losing a crazy amount on seats, and certainly not enough to change anything sans a sweep in the midterms. Republicans haven't even started overtly lying in national ads or cheating yet.

Their policies have certainly been polling very bad. That bad polling has not resulted in enough actual power change, at least not enough power change to change those policies.

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[Tyrath]

The amount of seats flipped during special elections and the margins have been anything but normal. But ok.

The midterms are literally the first time "actual power change" can happen. The fuck you want before that?

[Yabby]

I think he’s just saying not to get carried away expecting some overwhelming “blue wave” that completely pushes Trump out. At best, they might flip the House and force a lame-duck situation, but beyond that, the overall landscape probably doesn’t shift much.

These swings feel significant right now, but if there’s one consistent pattern, it’s that people have short memories. In a lot of cases, the final few weeks leading up to the election end up having the biggest impact on the outcome.

[Mrbeansman]

The amount of seats flipped during special elections and the margins have been anything but normal. But ok.

The midterms are literally the first time "actual power change" can happen. The fuck you want before that?

Obviously Jeffries should hold Congress hostage at gunpoint otherwise he's just "frowning disapprovingly".

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[Yabby]

I will say I hope i'm wrong.

[Obsidian]

Obviously Jeffries should hold Congress hostage at gunpoint otherwise he's just "frowning disapprovingly".

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I assume there's some area between his current sternly worded letters, and a mass shooting, that he still has room to operate in.

[Tyrath]

I will say I hope i'm wrong.

I mean I don't see prices or shitshows getting better