Month Eight: Crashing Out Over A Podcaster

[Salodin]

Have we been saying the admin is dumb? Like, sometimes we write flippantly and exaggerate, but has anyone actually doubled down on "these guys are dumb and don't know what they're doing"?

Cause they're pretty good at Project 2025 tbh

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[Mertron]

i don’t think people in the trump admin/circle are dumb

i think they’re incompetent

this gets reinforced any time i hear about their lawyers in court

[Tyrath]

You gotta have a certain level of incompetence in you to be a white supremacist/nazi

[Tymon]

Anyway, if you want my opinion with no election's rigged commentary..

I think the GOP is trying to make upcoming elections a referendum on "good vs. evil" where they are the good guys and the other guys are big bad meanies that always get in their way. They are the Toon Squad and the Democrats are the Monstars.

Why do you ask? Is the GOP voting base really that stupid? Uh, yeah. For sure they are, absolutely. So knowing that, making demonstrably false statements all the time is at best irrelevant since none of those people consume any media that will actually tell them that. At worst it's a good thing since those false statements do exactly what I said above, which is turn the elections into a NFL game where you want your boys to score and theirs to fumble, no matter what. This becomes easier to believe the more you're around ordinary Republicans. Not terminally online Groypers and 4channers trolling on Reddit with -150k karma. Not bots posting on Facebook or Xitter. I mean the boomers sitting at the sports bar. The evangelicals that pack megachurches out by the thousands. I could go on. The more you listen to those people, digest what they're saying and what they believe, and see the media they consume, it becomes really clear that these seemingly very dumb political decisions may actually not be so dumb.

[Tyche]

In Why would he believe he is in a precarious political position when everyone loves him and everything he does is massively successful and America is winning every day?

Lastly, as far as Trump losing elections based on actions he took (or didn't take), there are a couple examples: the 2018 midterms and the 2020 election. In the 2018 midterms the GOP got steamrolled for pretty generic and historically common reasons. Unpopular POTUS in an election with his name not on the ballots. It really felt like in that year that their heart wasn't in it. As for the 2020 election, he lost, barely mind you, despite being impeached and completely fucking up the response to the biggest health crisis in a century. His policies directly killed thousands, the overwhelming majority of whom supported him. Despite that, the highest turnout in years, and voting accessibility at an all time high, he still barely lost. A few counties in a few states away.

It is, again, plainly obvious that the strategies that the GOP has historically employed, even under Trump, are not what they are doing right now. So, while it is certainly fair to posit election outcomes based on past history, to claim with any kind of certainty that "X data means Y is fucked" is enormously naive. Things are different this time and will be next year, too. That doesn't mean that you throw up your hands, say it's rigged, and give up. It does mean that you have to see the forest for the trees and strategize how best to prevent it.

I think we have a lot of fundamental disagreements about the election, history, and/or I feel like you're confusing campaigns and elections with serving.

I don't think any of the elections have been "different", just how he's ran the office. The politics of the elections hasn't really changed, and I don't believe we will ever agree that he's susceltible to unpopular policy. There's nothing unusual about Trump winning in 2016 after a highly polarizing black Democrat held office for 8 years. I don't think it's unusual that he lost a huge amount of seats after how he conducted himself in office. Not surprised he lost the next election after juicing up the Democrat enthusiasm. Not surprised he won again in 2024 after every headline in the first 10 months of that year was about economic inflation. I will be surprised if Dems lose next year, even if 10 seats are gerrymandered. It seems we have a difference of opinion on voter trends and election outcomes. I think we believe at severely differing degrees of severity/illegality at which they'll try to "rig" the election. I also don't believe Trump is delusional enough to think he's not in a politically fraught position. He knows and has acknowledged the uphill battle in the house.

[Melena]

While I'm not putting my eggs in the "Maybe he'll stroke out or something" basket, one thing people don't seem to realize is that Trump has something all those others like Steven Miller and such don't have, and that's charisma. Trump is literally the only one holding up that entire house of cards, and when/if he dies, you are going to see a huge power vacuum, as all of them have at least 1 unforgiveable flaw within MAGA Universe. Whether it's the race of the person they married, their opinion on Israel, etc. No one is going to rally up the entire base.

And if the base isn't motivated, they are going to go right back to their non voting ways. For better or worse, Trump has increased the amount of people voting, both for and against him. And if they stay away, any rigging is going to be so blatantly obvious, even Roberts won't be able to let that slide.

[Salodin]

And if they stay away, any rigging is going to be so blatantly obvious, even Roberts won't be able to let that slide.

Lol

Lmfao even

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[Emphasis]

Hearing notice from some big wigs that apparently Democrats likely sweep tonight.

[Tyche]

I think the nuances of our positions boil down to if you believe a long documented history of election consequences and outcomes continue, or if we see unprecedented cheating produce a history-defying outcome. I'm not convinced they can pull that off. Maybe with a more moderate president that doesn't live off chaos. Until then, as Archi said, "if tomorrow, why not now". It's game theory 101. If the cheating is as transparent as you believe, why wait for Dems to startegize around it and potentially curb it's effectiveness? Why not cheat in the special elections? Why not in the mayors race?

[Sirious]

It's legitimately the only confusing part. They just move so slow. They shouldve skipped right to the concentration camps but they keep screwing around and waffling and wasting time.

It is mildly baffling. Doesn't make any sense to keep acting like you have time to waste.

If they continue delaying, everyone might eventually, pretend to start fighting back.

I can only assume they expect the morons to hand it to them, before the last resort being take it. It's a feasible plan, the voters are retarded, but not a risk I would take.

[Tyrath]

It's really not that baffling. It's boiling the frog. If you do it all at once the frog jumps out. You gotta slowly strip things away one norm at a time.

[Sirious]

The issue with that analogy is these frogs are too stupid to jump out, no matter what you do.

BUT if you keep trying to slow boil them, they will figure it out.

[Karbuncle]

Idk i feel like if Trump in week 1 had the Military deployed to all 50 states declaring Martial law and cancelling future elections until the "illegals" were eradicated, even the dumbest frogs might realize they're being boiled.

But yah, I'm also just leaning toward "They're incompetent".

[Tyche]

Idk i feel like if Trump in week 1 had the Military deployed to all 50 states declaring Martial law and cancelling future elections until the "illegals" were eradicated, even the dumbest frogs might realize they're being boiled.

But yah, I'm also just leaning toward "They're incompetent".

But if you're position is it doesn't matter....then it doesn't matter.

[Tyrath]

Literally no one has that position.

Well maybe Sirious does, idk.

[Salodin]

https://x.com/ABC/status/19857536542...ICjSmPp6w&s=19

Is this post-worthy? Asking for a friend

The only way things change is if people suffer for their actions. The business class suffering majorly in this shutdown is enough to get the ball rolling on opening the gov

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[Meresgi]

Been hearing from some folks that they have heard Schumer and others might move to end shutdown after tonight, obviously who knows if anyone actually heard ANYTHING legit but they better not. Especially if Dems sweep tonight.

[Tymon]

Considering Bernie and some other progressive senators were out making very angry statements about capitulating today that does sound pretty accurate to me.

There is probably a coalition of moderates willing to bend the knee. Fetterman, Kelly, a few others. Don't need too many more.

[Salodin]

I think the nuances of our positions boil down to if you believe a long documented history of election consequences and outcomes continue, or if we see unprecedented cheating produce a history-defying outcome. I'm not convinced they can pull that off. Maybe with a more moderate president that doesn't live off chaos. Until then, as Archi said, "if tomorrow, why not now". It's game theory 101. If the cheating is as transparent as you believe, why wait for Dems to startegize around it and potentially curb it's effectiveness? Why not cheat in the special elections? Why not in the mayors race?

Because this is mostly local elections and not national? IDK man, seems kinda relevant. He doesn't need to cheat and win with an 80% popular vote. He needs to win by .1%, and the closer it is the better. Why try and make it super obvious? You seem to be making assumptions about something you don't even agree with and then presenting it as our claim.

The "cheating" has many flavors you completely hand wave. ICE fucking up voting stations and scaring away voters next year, defending or pressuring certain polls to close early or not open, sending the wrong ballots, never sending out mail in ballots, all absolutely count as "cheating" but for some reason (correct me if I'm wrong) you seem to assume this cheating is gonna be in the excel spreadsheet they use to tabulate votes. I think they're good enough at this to be more insidious, and cruel.

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[Meresgi]

Considering Bernie and some other progressive senators were out making very angry statements about capitulating today that does sound pretty accurate to me.

There is probably a coalition of moderates willing to bend the knee. Fetterman, Kelly, a few others. Don't need too many more.

Wouldn't be surprised, why would Dems push the advantage at all lol. Just bend over and pretend like anything was accomplished!