3.89% T1 synthing

[Flash]

maybe i am just lucky, but all the tier 0 synths i have HQ'd are a random day random moon phase, random direction.

[Kriz]

I must reiterate, it's entirely possible to go completely horribly bad on a tier one synth.

My Prism Cape record:

First try, HQ
Next 26 tries, NQ
Friend brings enough Rainbow Cloths to make 40, all NQ
Recycle 40 NQ capes into enough for 15 more tries, all NQ
Recycle those 15 into 6 more, then 1 more, all NQ
Another Friend brings mats for 37 more, all NQ
Recycling brings in enough for 13, then 5, more, all NQ
Thinking I had to catch up with statistics, I tried 36 more, all NQ
Recycle over the 36 for a total of 10 more, all NQ

At that point, having almost bankrupted two friends and wasted all my saved up Rainbow, I decided to keep my Prism (worth, when made, 7mil, now like 1.5m) as a memento as I did sign it. I then stopped doing synths altogether, assuming that I had no luck. And yes, at the start I did the whole Darksday, Full Moon/New Moon, wear ugliest subligar available, etc.

It took me 4 months before I decided to even do another cloth synth for HQs, this time Blessed Mitts (at least they aren't a massive loss for NQ, and I can give them out). Going 1/6 on that made me happy, sometimes luck is good, sometimes not.

Cloth is great, I love the ability to make gear I want, and maybe someday HQ it. But, at the moment, at least on Valefor, I'm biding my time. Hoping that, once I acquire lots of raw mats, the eventual winter price increase will come and refill my coffers...

[divisortheory]

I've personally known worse (Solsovly did something like 0/24 t3 synths, consecutively. Statistically that's far more rare.

5/12 on T1. Top that.

Edit: 0/24 on T3 has a higher chance than 0/100 on T1.

0/100 on T1 = (.9)^100 = .00266%
0/24 on T3 = (.75)^24 = .1%

And that's if you use 10% as the HQ chance on Tier 1 instead of 7% which some people believe. For shits and giggles,

5/12 on T1 = (.1)^5 * (.9)^7 = .000478%

So you think its possible to go 0/100 m slops in one sitting with no synths in between?I would love to see that screenshot.

Chance of HQ = 10%
Chance of not HQ = 90%

Chance of going 0/100 = (90%)^100 = (.9)^100 = .0000266 = .00266% chance = 1/376.

Conclusion: Every 376 batches of 100 T1 synths, you'll go 0/100.

Please stop now, you're losing really really bad.

[aurik]

I've personally known worse (Solsovly did something like 0/24 t3 synths, consecutively. Statistically that's far more rare.

5/12 on T1. Top that.

Edit: 0/24 on T3 has a higher chance than 0/100 on T1.

0/100 on T1 = (.9)^100 = .00266%
0/24 on T3 = (.75)^24 = .1%

And that's if you use 10% as the HQ chance on Tier 1 instead of 7% which some people believe. For shits and giggles,

5/12 on T1 = (.1)^5 * (.9)^7 = .000478%

So you think its possible to go 0/100 m slops in one sitting with no synths in between?I would love to see that screenshot.

Chance of HQ = 10%
Chance of not HQ = 90%

Chance of going 0/100 = (90%)^100 = (.9)^100 = .0000266 = .00266% chance = 1/376.

Conclusion: Every 376 batches of 100 T1 synths, you'll go 0/100.

Please stop now, you're losing really really bad.

t3 is 0.5 chance to nq, not 0.75. going 0/24 is 1 in about 16 million i think?

[Raineer]

After going 0/113 on the 'best possible day and moon phase' synthing tier 11s a while ago, I too have come to the conclusion that days are bullshit. Crafting is down to the random number generator and luck.

its not possible to go 0/113 on tier 1

I went 0/90+ on 2 seperate T1's at different times, and one of those was prism capes.

[Veli]

After going 0/113 on the 'best possible day and moon phase' synthing tier 11s a while ago, I too have come to the conclusion that days are bullshit. Crafting is down to the random number generator and luck.

its not possible to go 0/113 on tier 1

I went 0/90+ on 2 seperate T1's at different times, and one of those was prism capes.

You sat down one day and synthed 90 rainbow capes and no rainbow cloth or any other tier 1 synths and went 0/90?

[Veli]

I've personally known worse (Solsovly did something like 0/24 t3 synths, consecutively. Statistically that's far more rare.

5/12 on T1. Top that.

Edit: 0/24 on T3 has a higher chance than 0/100 on T1.

0/100 on T1 = (.9)^100 = .00266%
0/24 on T3 = (.75)^24 = .1%

And that's if you use 10% as the HQ chance on Tier 1 instead of 7% which some people believe. For shits and giggles,

5/12 on T1 = (.1)^5 * (.9)^7 = .000478%

So you think its possible to go 0/100 m slops in one sitting with no synths in between?I would love to see that screenshot.

Chance of HQ = 10%
Chance of not HQ = 90%

Chance of going 0/100 = (90%)^100 = (.9)^100 = .0000266 = .00266% chance = 1/376.

Conclusion: Every 376 batches of 100 T1 synths, you'll go 0/100.

Please stop now, you're losing really really bad.

That doesnt impress me and its wrong.

[Remembrance]

Synth for other people, your T1 rate will skyrocket. My record for other people since I started synthing for other people again (2 months ago)? I can't HQ anything for myself if my life depended on it.

2/3 Nomad Mantles +1
1/1 Cav Mantle +1
1/2 Dusk Trousers +1
0/2 Sniper's

I didn't read most of this thread, but I just made another aristocrat's coat, making me 3/7 no breaks at 93.4+3+3, and I believe in this so much..

If I synth for another person, I synth t1-t0 hqs like they are level one synths..

[Krandor]

I've personally known worse (Solsovly did something like 0/24 t3 synths, consecutively. Statistically that's far more rare.

5/12 on T1. Top that.

Edit: 0/24 on T3 has a higher chance than 0/100 on T1.

0/100 on T1 = (.9)^100 = .00266%
0/24 on T3 = (.75)^24 = .1%

And that's if you use 10% as the HQ chance on Tier 1 instead of 7% which some people believe. For shits and giggles,

5/12 on T1 = (.1)^5 * (.9)^7 = .000478%

So you think its possible to go 0/100 m slops in one sitting with no synths in between?I would love to see that screenshot.

Chance of HQ = 10%
Chance of not HQ = 90%

Chance of going 0/100 = (90%)^100 = (.9)^100 = .0000266 = .00266% chance = 1/376.

Conclusion: Every 376 batches of 100 T1 synths, you'll go 0/100.

Please stop now, you're losing really really bad.

That doesnt impress me and its wrong.

Multiple people just said they've gone between 90-113 on T1 synths with no HQs and the best you can do is refute with dumbass?

[Veli]

I've personally known worse (Solsovly did something like 0/24 t3 synths, consecutively. Statistically that's far more rare.

5/12 on T1. Top that.

Edit: 0/24 on T3 has a higher chance than 0/100 on T1.

0/100 on T1 = (.9)^100 = .00266%
0/24 on T3 = (.75)^24 = .1%

And that's if you use 10% as the HQ chance on Tier 1 instead of 7% which some people believe. For shits and giggles,

5/12 on T1 = (.1)^5 * (.9)^7 = .000478%

So you think its possible to go 0/100 m slops in one sitting with no synths in between?I would love to see that screenshot.

Chance of HQ = 10%
Chance of not HQ = 90%

Chance of going 0/100 = (90%)^100 = (.9)^100 = .0000266 = .00266% chance = 1/376.

Conclusion: Every 376 batches of 100 T1 synths, you'll go 0/100.

Please stop now, you're losing really really bad.

That doesnt impress me and its wrong.

Multiple people just said they've gone between 90-113 on T1 synths with no HQs and the best you can do is refute with dumbass?

When I ask if they did it all in one day same synth with no other hqs in between they dont answer. He also said the chance of that happening is 1/387 but it seems to be 1/10 on this board lol. I'm not gonna argue with you about some stupid ass shit go get a female to argue with. When most people say they went 0/90 on sniper rings they aint talking about going 0/90 overall they hq other stuff in between. I think somebody can go 0/90 on snipers but I think its hard to go 0/90 overall tier 1.

[kihre]

i am a female, and i believe he is correct. Since all of us are higher level craft, and we do actively craft a LOT, we've had a higher chance to go on a streak like this. How you put it is if one person only crafted 387 times and never crafted again.

Of course there will be more than a few crafters who have done this, possibly even 1/10 of those on these boards... because of the shear volume of crafting these people do.

[GavinBandura]

Veli, be quiet. What started as a small attack on my statement has now turned in to you trying to fight against multiple crafters. Just be quiet, seriously. Other people have shared this experience, and you're still just trying to label it as a lie. Just go and HQ some more, or go away.

[Monkfish]

I've gone as far as 0/84 on tier 1 in a row with no other synths in between then giving up (I didn't even desynth, m slops aren't really worth the desynth and I just NPC them)

It's feasible to go 0/100+, painstakingly expensive and improbable, but not impossible. Similar to me sitting in Port Sandy and HQing 3/12 darksteel sheets when on tier0 </cry>

My theory on things would be to do small size samples, and stop as soon as you're above the odds (can't when you 0/100+, but still).

My understanding is that the whole crafting system is rigged in a way for people wanting more. That would mean giving players little or no control at all in the outcome of the synth. The only control that we have on the outcome is how high we are above the cap of the synth... Anything outside of that is a "make believe" factor that shares similarities with slot machines which makes people think that they have an advantage over the system.

[divisortheory]

That doesnt impress me and its wrong.

...

When I ask if they did it all in one day same synth with no other hqs in between they dont answer. He also said the chance of that happening is 1/387 but it seems to be 1/10 on this board lol. I'm not gonna argue with you about some stupid ass shit go get a female to argue with. When most people say they went 0/90 on sniper rings they aint talking about going 0/90 overall they hq other stuff in between. I think somebody can go 0/90 on snipers but I think its hard to go 0/90 overall tier 1.

It was like 1AM when I typed that, and as Aurik and a few others pointed yet, yes my numbers were wrong. Let me fix them.

0/24 on T3 = (.5)^24 = .000006%
0/100 on T1 = (.9)^100 = .00266%
5/12 on T1 = (12;5) * (.1)^5 * (.9)^7 = 792 * .00000478 = .0038 = .38%

Unfortunately for you, my number for 0/100 on T1 wasn't wrong.

I think somebody can go 0/90 on snipers but I think its hard to go 0/90 overall tier 1

Go back to your fucking College Algebra class and bitch about how the instructor is a faggot and an idiot who doesn't know what he's talking about while you proceed to get F's on your pop quizzes about how to graph linear functions in the XY-plane, because you clearly don't know shit about math.

Feel free to come back with a retort, but this discussion is over because you fail at the most fundamental level since you don't understand basic concepts of probability and statistics. In particular, that if you take a random subset of sample points from a larger sample, if the original sample and the method of generating your subset both follow the same distribution, the resulting sample set follows the same distribution as well. Essentially what you are saying is that you think it's possible and impossible for the exact same thing to happen.

I tried not to be rude until now, but your ignorance is fucking astounding, even in the face of tons of people presenting specific examples to the contrary of what you're saying.

[Tekki]

Im 2/hmm 30ish on snipers? And those 2 were within 4-5 snipers of each other, and early on. Right now im working on easily a 0/10-15 streak

[Raineer]

When I ask if they did it all in one day same synth with no other hqs in between they dont answer.

Sorry I don't camp the board when I'm at home.

After going 0/113 on the 'best possible day and moon phase' synthing tier 11s a while ago, I too have come to the conclusion that days are bullshit. Crafting is down to the random number generator and luck.

its not possible to go 0/113 on tier 1

I went 0/90+ on 2 seperate T1's at different times, and one of those was prism capes.

You sat down one day and synthed 90 rainbow capes and no rainbow cloth or any other tier 1 synths and went 0/90?

Yes, and 0/68 another day. No HQ's at all, and I don't buy rainbow cloth so that added another 2 synths per prism cape try, didn't HQ any of them either (on the 0/90 day), on the 0/68 day I did HQ like 2 cloths.

[GavinBandura]

Yes, mine were all on the same day. Today I just went 0/36 on slacks and 0/28 on prism capes and smashed two more cursed slacks. My oh my, crafting doesn't like me at the moment, hehe.

[divisortheory]

When I ask if they did it all in one day same synth with no other hqs in between they dont answer.

Sorry I don't camp the board when I'm at home.

The reason nobody answers is because it's irrelevant, if he understood math he'd realize that.

[Neosutra]

I think most people, like veli, REALLY have no idea what an independent random variable is.

Alot of people i talk to think that if i am doing a 1/12 HQ synth, that if i HQ the first 11, the chances of me HQing the 12th synth is OMG really high, when infact the chance of HQ is still 1/12.

Its not really a hard concept, and its pretty much common sense, but i find myself explaining it to people over and over.

Most people only ever get to deterministic mathematics, and they are even bad at that, its one reason why US is loosing its technology edge.

[DoliantheBard]

Most people only ever get to deterministic mathematics, and they are even bad at that, its one reason why US is loosing its technology edge.

I'm not taking sides on this discussion, just pointing out something funny.