Ulli :<

[Ryko]

How, exactly, is much of anything different? The specific people might be but the same shit goes on.

[divisortheory]

How, exactly, is much of anything different? The specific people might be but the same shit goes on.

Umm, maybe the fact that there isn't a huge gil dupe exploit right now? Do you consider that aspect of last year's inflation neglible or something?

[Narse]

I must admit, if I had to choose between a Haidate and an E. Body, I'd pick the Haidate. With the new Haidate -1, I dunno, but before that, definately. (WAR)

[aurik]

How, exactly, is much of anything different? The specific people might be but the same shit goes on.

Umm, maybe the fact that there isn't a huge gil dupe exploit right now? Do you consider that aspect of last year's inflation neglible or something?

Instead of duping gil, they're just hoarding it instead.

[Ryko]

How, exactly, is much of anything different? The specific people might be but the same shit goes on.

Umm, maybe the fact that there isn't a huge gil dupe exploit right now? Do you consider that aspect of last year's inflation neglible or something?

To a large extent yes, as different servers only had a handful of people who did such a thing. Anyone on fairy can mention the most noteworthy one, and the most she did it for was to give her fellow carpet munchers some krakens.

[divisortheory]

That's only the gil duping you know about. Notice how IGE has most servers' status as "OUT OF STOCK". That means there's no supply. Notice how before last year, you never saw an out of stock message ever?

When inflation doesn't happen at all this christmas I'll bump this thread to remind you that I was right

[Vedder]

That's only the gil duping you know about. Notice how IGE has most servers' status as "OUT OF STOCK". That means there's no supply.

I think this would lend credence to Aurik's claim that they are hoarding...

[Ryko]

That's only the gil duping you know about. Notice how IGE has most servers' status as "OUT OF STOCK". That means there's no supply. Notice how before last year, you never saw an out of stock message ever?

When inflation doesn't happen at all this christmas I'll bump this thread to remind you that I was right

How, exactly, is much of anything different? The specific people might be but the same shit goes on.

Umm, maybe the fact that there isn't a huge gil dupe exploit right now? Do you consider that aspect of last year's inflation neglible or something?

Instead of duping gil, they're just hoarding it instead.

[Coephoros]

What, pray tell, are they hording it for?

[aurik]

That's only the gil duping you know about. Notice how IGE has most servers' status as "OUT OF STOCK". That means there's no supply. Notice how before last year, you never saw an out of stock message ever?

When inflation doesn't happen at all this christmas I'll bump this thread to remind you that I was right

That's because IGE no longer keeps more than a day or 2 in stock, because the gil bannings really owned them hard.

The RMT groups however are earning in excess of 30m a day -- probably more like 50m or more -- and I can guarantee you that it is not all being purchased.

Let me put it this way, there's no way that the amount of currency physically exiting the game matches up with the sustained deflation rate given by FFXIAH. The only explanation for that is the gil must be entering artificial sinks, such as RMT banks.

And they're likely hoarding it for xmas, since IGE doesn't buy more than a small stock at any given time.

[Ryko]

What, pray tell, are they hording it for?

Holy shit there's a hole in the bucket?

[Tordall]

To Roranora and Tordall:

Both your arguments reverted back to you buying something from them. 'They all have stone, so you have to buy from them' essentially. No you don't have to buy from them. Yes you do need to buy the stones to justify them being there. They have to make gil to make money, if you don't buy it they don't make gil, they don't get paid and they don't eat. If you didn't make any money at work to buy food, would you still spend all day working there or would you go somewhere else where you could earn money?

Two years ago when RMT wasn't as prevelant, there was someone on my server who bought a lot of gil, and still does. And he admits it and doesn't think it's wrong. He didn't see how buying gil farmed by RMT encouraged the RMT farmers to keep camping NMs, Gobbue, Fish-botting, etc. A business with out a customer will not make money. If they don't make money they stop.

Maybe it's different on your server. On my server people are actually buying the rare/ex items from RMTs because they have the choice between buying the Autumnstone from the RMTs or buying the rare/ex item from the RMTs. Also, one of the more notorious linkshells on my server 'farms' sky buy buying pop-items and just going up there to pop gods (don't think arguing with that group will change their behavior). As a consequence of both of these, the RMTs will get gil either from the LS that's buying the pop-items from them or will get gil from the people who's only hope is to buy the rare/ex drops from them.

Therefore, at least on Alexander, RMTs benefit from simply preventing anyone else from getting autmnstones. They don't actually need 'legit' players to buy them to keep there income coming.

[Faranim]

1. RMT make Gil
2. RMT mules get banned
3. Deflation!

The gil situation is the same as always. People with 100 crafts have enough gil to get around, and slowly make enough income to buy nice items. People with no crafts, and limited/no time to farm, are poor and never have any money. ( I fall into the 2nd category)

The problem (at least for me), is the compounded effect of:
1. Limited play time
2. Guarnateed competition on everything profitable
3. Items I have are losing value, items I want continue to rise in price

I would probably be better if I was doing ENM, ISNM, Assault, and BCs on a regular basis, but I don't even have the time to do those anymore. I don't even know what I'm going to do once I run out of gil. I don't have any items which can be sold for gil, since everything I own is rare/ex or used too regularly to sell (Haubergeon, etc).

There's not much we as players can do to fix the problem. Either you suck it up and spend a lot of time crafting/farming to get the gear you want, or you just accept that there are items in the game which you will never obtain. Fortunately, ToAU has been adding lots of new rare/ex gear which isn't completely useless, and is obtainable by everyone with enough time/effort.

[divisortheory]

If they are hoarding it, then the reason they are hoarding it is because they can't sustain the rate at which they made gil last year with the exploits and they want to be "prepared" anyway. And I seriously doubt they are making 30m per day, or even per week. There's been Speed Belts, Kraken Clubs, and Alky Bracelets out in Rolanberry for weeks now on the same RMT mules, they keep dropping in price. The same Autumstones are still there. There's been a pair of Alky Bracelets on an RMT mule that are down to 14 million and sitting there for over 2 weeks and still hasn't sold.

Last christmas there was infinite supply (literally). That caused IGE to starting buying it for less and less, which allowed them to sell it for less, which caused more people to buy it, which created an acceleration of falling prices and increased demand.

This year there is limited supply. Even if they are hoarding it, their supply will run out fast and we'll quickly be right back to where we are.

[Machazareel]

They make 30m a day easily, you have to remember that they also have several 100+3 crafting mules and a ton of gardening mules. They make a vast amount from that alone.
They horde it now because during this current period of time, IGE will not buy mass quantities.
However, once christmas rolls around, it is likely that they'll be able to sell much larger quantities to IGE because the demand will rise due to people getting more money. This in turn will cause a larger flow of gil into the economy and inflation will ensue.

I'm pretty sure it won't be as bad as last year, but I'm also pretty sure that there's going to be a noticable impact on the server economy as a result.

[Stilgar]

HOARDING is the correct spelling. GJ Aurik and Divisortheory. You can't hord something, or even horde something, excepting perhaps if you play WoW.

[aurik]

If they are hoarding it, then the reason they are hoarding it is because they can't sustain the rate at which they made gil last year with the exploits and they want to be "prepared" anyway. And I seriously doubt they are making 30m per day, or even per week. There's been Speed Belts, Kraken Clubs, and Alky Bracelets out in Rolanberry for weeks now on the same RMT mules, they keep dropping in price. The same Autumstones are still there. There's been a pair of Alky Bracelets on an RMT mule that are down to 14 million and sitting there for over 2 weeks and still hasn't sold.

Last christmas there was infinite supply (literally). That caused IGE to starting buying it for less and less, which allowed them to sell it for less, which caused more people to buy it, which created an acceleration of falling prices and increased demand.

This year there is limited supply. Even if they are hoarding it, their supply will run out fast and we'll quickly be right back to where we are.

Don't doubt how much RMT are making. If they get an Ulli stone once a day, and that's conservative, that's at least 5m gil in their pocket. On Asura, they spam ENMs with 100+ toons, they camp amemet, sozu, etc around the clock, they have a stranglehold on boroka, roc, serket, cassie, simurgh, jody, all the SSG nms, they do dynamis for coins and synth materials, they mass produce threads, ingots, medicines, foods, hell they even mass-ga farm in EP+ zones like SSG simply for seals, which they turn into stylets, kriegsbeils, etc.

Well, with IGE rationing how much it will buy to minimize their risk, basically the RMT zombie hordes are making far more than they can actually sell. They're forced to hoard it because, well, what else are you going to do with all that gil?

It will sell eventually; just because they haven't realized $$ from the gil today doesn't make it a less valuable asset. They might as well keep farming them and expanding their operations as long as they're turning a net profit.

To some degree they've become victims of their own impact on the economy. Less gil in circulation means lower prices: the high-end stuff they are trying to sell at high prices simply won't sell anymore, or will sell for a lower price. But on the other end of the scale, the more that 1m gil will get you in game, the more people will be willing to pay for it, which means they can sell their money for more.

But you're right, unless there is a dupe or other exploit to create a ton of money quickly, we're not going to end up with an infinite loop like we did last year. We'll just revert to June economy in the period of about a week, and then stop.

[Coephoros]

Let me put it this way, there's no way that the amount of currency physically exiting the game matches up with the sustained deflation rate given by FFXIAH. The only explanation for that is the gil must be entering artificial sinks, such as RMT banks.

I think this better explains the deflation:

1. A gargantuan pool of money was deleted last year timing with the first severe price drop. The currency continues to exit en masse with each new set of bannings. If SE has banned 100 accounts per server every 60 days, and those accounts had even a modest 20 million gil average per account (at current market value at the time of banning), that 2,000 million gil by itself would exceed the 30m per day you purport to be horded by RMT.

2. The available pool of items to buy has expanded. So not only is there less gil, but it's spread around more things.

3. There are more sources of materials, and more alternatives to gear. Supply has been driven up, and demand has been driven down. So the already decreased, thinned-out pool of gil has been saturated by more options for your buying pleasure.

Maybe RMT really are hording gil. I'd feel sorry for them if I gave a shit about RMTs, because they're not going to be doing anything with that gil for a while except through private buyers. But regardless, their hording of gil is not going to have anything other than a minimal increase in prices over the holidays.

[raginbull]

aurik do they own charybdis on your server as well?

[aurik]

Let me put it this way, there's no way that the amount of currency physically exiting the game matches up with the sustained deflation rate given by FFXIAH. The only explanation for that is the gil must be entering artificial sinks, such as RMT banks.

I think this better explains the deflation:

1. A gargantuan pool of money was deleted last year timing with the first severe price drop. The currency continues to exit en masse with each new set of bannings. If SE has banned 100 accounts per server every 60 days, and those accounts had even a modest 20 million gil average per account (at current market value at the time of banning), that 2,000 million gil by itself would exceed the 30m per day you purport to be horded by RMT.

2. The available pool of items to buy has expanded. So not only is there less gil, but it's spread around more things.

3. There are more sources of materials, and more alternatives to gear. Supply has been driven up, and demand has been driven down. So the already decreased, thinned-out pool of gil has been saturated by more options for your buying pleasure.

Maybe RMT really are hording gil. I'd feel sorry for them if I gave a shit about RMTs, because they're not going to be doing anything with that gil for a while except through private buyers. But regardless, their hording of gil is not going to have anything other than a minimal increase in prices over the holidays.

I think most people have way way less than 20m gil now, the average banstick triage would probably look more like 300 mil per server.

25+ amemet skins sold on asura yesterday alone, 100% from RMT sources. That's almost 5m just from 1 NM in 1 day.