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  1. #1

    Normal Assault ??? Statistics

    I thought it would be interesting to track the rate at which ??? items are appraised into different things. From now on, whenever you do assaults, respond to this thread and post the name of the assault, the ??? item you received, and what it was appraised into.

    when I say from now on, I really mean from now on. Not an assault you did two weeks ago, or even yesterday.

    And don't lie, because it will only skew the statistics for no good reason.

    Once I start getting a few I'll post a link to the excel spreadsheet I'm using to track it.

    If you get a ??? Box, just say it was a box. Don't care much what was inside it, since I don't think it's possible for ??? Boxes to be anything other than garbage.

    Finally, if you are going to post anything, you must post everything. If you do 3 assaults and get 1 cool item and 2 shit, don't only post the cool item and leave out the shit. That messes up the results.


    Statistics:
    http://kalia.ultimals.com/Assault-Drops.xls

    Cond. % is the probability that, assuming you already got the designated ??? item (e.g. ??? Sword, ??? Axe, etc) it will be appraised into the specific item.

    Overall % is the probability that, assuming you start the mission from scratch, you will end up with the specific item in question.

    Placement Tracker: @P21 Mon Apr 23, 2007 10:04 pm
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  2. #2
    Motherfucking
    NOSTRADAMUS

    I was an asshole once and Im really sorry

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    Really want that Divisor Ring don't you :D
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  3. #3

    Quote Originally Posted by Wulfgang
    Really want that Divisor Ring don't you :D
    lol just wanna track em for everything. I know the Ex appraisals are rare as fuck, I just wanna be able to put a number to it.
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  4. #4

    I like this idea. Might as well mention where you appraised it (Al Zahbi, Whitegate or Nashmau) and whether or not the assault was level-capped, and if so to what cap. You want us to report when we get ice crystals and gorget+1s, or just the good stuff?
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  5. #5

    Quote Originally Posted by Suiram
    I like this idea. Might as well mention where you appraised it (Al Zahbi, Whitegate or Nashmau) and whether or not the assault was level-capped, and if so to what cap. You want us to report when we get ice crystals and gorget+1s, or just the good stuff?
    Well crystals only come from the ??? Box, and I don't care about those other than the fact that you got a ??? Box as opposed to a ??? Something Else. But Gorget+1s would come from a ??? Neckpiece, and yea I'm interested in those since I'm curious if there are multiple tiers of rarity like there are with mining, or if there's just "fucking common" and "fucking rare".
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  6. #6
    Banned.

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    People should try appraising in nashmau too, to see if there is any difference
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  7. #7
    Melee Summoner
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    Did Ilrusi Atoll, Golden Salvage 3 times.

    ??? Earring -> Bone Earring
    ??? Earring -> Silver Earring
    ??? Earring -> Storm Earring

    *edit: Appraised in Whitegate if it matters.
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  8. #8

    Quote Originally Posted by Suiram
    I like this idea. Might as well mention where you appraised it (Al Zahbi, Whitegate or Nashmau) and whether or not the assault was level-capped, and if so to what cap. You want us to report when we get ice crystals and gorget+1s, or just the good stuff?
    btw, there's too many variables if you include all of that stuff. People can mention it so that it's recorded here in case someone else wants to analyze those variables, but for the purposes of the spreadsheet I'm using (hard to track n dimensions of variables with a 2 dimensional spreadsheet) I'll just assume that neither appraisal location nor level cap matters. I think everyone does level 75 cap anyway.
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  9. #9
    Campaign
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    I don't remember exactly what we got, but from getting my 20k points from Preemptive Strike, we got 1 Storm Torque. So, pretty much 1/~20 (It's a piece of crap, but only storm item I've really got. ;/). All of them done in whitegate, all by me.
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  10. #10
    Relic Weapons
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    sheep assault, appraised in whitegate
    1 box
    2 daggers: spark dagger, kyofu
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  11. #11
    Chram
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    Counting Sheep

    ??? dagger > Kyofu
    ??? dagger > Katars

    Azure Experiments

    ??? Ring > Brass Ring
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  12. #12
    Canada
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    Preemptive Strike

    ??? Necklace -> Feather Collar


    Golden Salvage

    ??? Box -> worm
    ??? earring -> beetle earring
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  13. #13

    Updated the OP with an XLS spreadsheet. It's fairly basic right now, but as the number of reports start growing I'll add automatic calculations for probabilities, standard deviations, confidence intervals, etc etc.
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  14. #14
    the whitest knight u' know
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    Golden Salvage:
    (Whitegate)

    ??? Box = Little Worm
    ??? Earring = Beetle Earring
    ??? Earring = Beetle Earring
    ??? Earring = Shell Earring
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  15. #15
    Banned.

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    Did a lot of assaulting and i really do say that even with a large pool of data id bet good money that +1s were about 10-20% and ex are about 5%
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  16. #16
    Sea Torques
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    over the past 6 days my appraisals from Azura Experiments have been:

    ??? Box > Phalaenopsis (flower)
    ??? Ring > Orichalcum Ring
    ??? Box > Ice Crystal
    ??? Ring > Brass Ring
    ??? Box > Ice Crystal
    ??? Footwear > Leather Highboots

    I think that was the correct order we got them in. I didnt see this thread on time to get them written down on time.
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  17. #17
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    Evade and Escape

    ??? Dagger -> Kyofu
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  18. #18
    HABS SUCK!!!!!
    Sepukku is my Hero
    Therrien's Cum Dumpster

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    Ilrusi-Lamia Box-unkown
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-Tsurara
    Mamo-Agent Box-Imp Tea Leaves
    Peri-Bridge Box-Rotten Quiver
    Peri-Bridge Box-Rotten Quiver
    Leb-Assassin Box-Bomb Ash
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-White Rock
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    Leuj-Rabbits Box-Pohalenopsis
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    Peri-Bridge Box-Bone Chip
    Mamo-Morale Box-Eggplant
    Peri-Bridge Polearm-Sickle
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Hatchet
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Silver Obi+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Silver Obi+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Enthralling Gold Obi
    Mamo-Morale Box-Sage
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-White Rock
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Prominence Axe
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Furnace Tabarzin
    Mamo-Morale Sword-Uchigatana+1
    Peri-Bridge Box-Rotten Quiver
    Mamo-Morale Sword-Uchigatana+1
    Peri-Bridge Box-Cleaning Tool Set
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Peri-Bridge Polearm-Sickle
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Hatchet
    Peri-Bridge Box-Igneous Rock
    Mamo-Morale Box-Eggplant
    Peri-Bridge Box-dunno
    Leb-Dahaks Dagger-Kyofu
    Leb-Dahaks Box-Red Rock
    Mamo-Morale Sword-Kagiroi
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Tomahawk+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Talisman Obi
    Leb-Assassin Polearm-Holly Staff +1
    Mamo-Morale Box-Eggplant
    Peri-Bridge Polearm-Sickle
    Leb-Assassin Polearm-Spark Spear
    Leb-Assassin Polearm-Brass Zaghnal
    Mamo-Morale Box-Wild Onion
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Hatchet
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Leb-Assassin Axe-Pickaxe
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Prominence Axe
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Ilrusi-Lamia Foot-Ash Clogs
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-Tsurara
    Ilrusi-Lamia Bow-Crossbow+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-trash
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-trash
    Ilrusi-Lamia Bow-Longbow+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Talisman Obi
    Mamo-Morale Box-trash
    Ilrusi-Lamia Bow-Crossbow+1
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Ilrusi-Lamia Footwear-Ash Clogs
    Ilrusi-Lamia Footwear-Bronze Leggings+1


    yup, all that, not ONE rare/ex piece...zilch...nada...
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  19. #19

    This is data you've been recording for a while? If so I'll put it down, if its' just kinda remembered, guessed, and not sure I'd rather not.
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by NynJa
    Ilrusi-Lamia Box-unkown
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-Tsurara
    Mamo-Agent Box-Imp Tea Leaves
    Peri-Bridge Box-Rotten Quiver
    Peri-Bridge Box-Rotten Quiver
    Leb-Assassin Box-Bomb Ash
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-White Rock
    Leb-Dahaks Dagger-Hushed Dagger
    Mamo-Agent Polearm-Spark Spear
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Hatchet
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-Pohalenopsis
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Talisman Obi
    Peri-Bridge Box-Bone Chip
    Mamo-Morale Box-Eggplant
    Peri-Bridge Polearm-Sickle
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Hatchet
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Silver Obi+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Silver Obi+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Enthralling Gold Obi
    Mamo-Morale Box-Sage
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-White Rock
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Prominence Axe
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Furnace Tabarzin
    Mamo-Morale Sword-Uchigatana+1
    Peri-Bridge Box-Rotten Quiver
    Mamo-Morale Sword-Uchigatana+1
    Peri-Bridge Box-Cleaning Tool Set
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Peri-Bridge Polearm-Sickle
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Hatchet
    Peri-Bridge Box-Igneous Rock
    Mamo-Morale Box-Eggplant
    Peri-Bridge Box-dunno
    Leb-Dahaks Dagger-Kyofu
    Leb-Dahaks Box-Red Rock
    Mamo-Morale Sword-Kagiroi
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Tomahawk+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Talisman Obi
    Leb-Assassin Polearm-Holly Staff +1
    Mamo-Morale Box-Eggplant
    Peri-Bridge Polearm-Sickle
    Leb-Assassin Polearm-Spark Spear
    Leb-Assassin Polearm-Brass Zaghnal
    Mamo-Morale Box-Wild Onion
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Hatchet
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Leb-Assassin Axe-Pickaxe
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Peri-Bridge Axe-Prominence Axe
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Lugworm Belt
    Ilrusi-Lamia Foot-Ash Clogs
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-Tsurara
    Ilrusi-Lamia Bow-Crossbow+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Box-trash
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-trash
    Ilrusi-Lamia Bow-Longbow+1
    Leuj-Rabbits Sash-Talisman Obi
    Mamo-Morale Box-trash
    Ilrusi-Lamia Bow-Crossbow+1
    Mamo-Morale Polearm-Spark Spear
    Ilrusi-Lamia Footwear-Ash Clogs
    Ilrusi-Lamia Footwear-Bronze Leggings+1


    yup, all that, not ONE rare/ex piece...zilch...nada...
    Quote Originally Posted by divisortheory
    when I say from now on, I really mean from now on. Not an assault you did two weeks ago, or even yesterday.
    Is there an Infinite Tag Hack we don't know about, or did you just not read his whole post?

    Doing nine Periqia Assaults later today. I'll post the results.
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