Mad Bomber data collection

[Suiram]

It was SW room.

[Khamsin]

It was SW room.

Right you are.

[mackerel]

We have 14 of 168 days reported, and no conflicting results yet. I'd like to see more data points, particularly reinforcing/conflicting reports on the days already noted. I will start maintaining the original post with a list of days and sightings.

[Faranim]

We have 14 of 168 days reported, and no conflicting results yet. I'd like to see more data points, particularly reinforcing/conflicting reports on the days already noted. I will start maintaining the original post with a list of days and sightings.

Uhhh... last time I checked FFXI only has 8 days. Where does 168 come from?

[Imitarate]

84 moon phases, doubled because each moon phase has two different days it can occur on. Waxing Gibbous 71%, Waning Crescent 36%, etc etc.

[tymora]

83% Darksday - Bomber on West side, south room

[divisortheory]

I have no fucking clue what this chart is talking about, can someone make a better one, perhaps with a few words?

[Hiruke]

I have no fucking clue what this chart is talking about, can someone make a better one, perhaps with a few words?

I would, but not enough reliable data to care. Several people who bothered to list all the correct information were not 100% of its veracity, and some may have listed the day/moon of zone entry while others may have listed the day/moon of when they opened the door to either path (this should in most cases be the same, but since it was brought up, I can only imagine either someone in this thread actually managed to enter a zone at the end of one day and entered the path on another... or maybe they're just thinking about it way too hard). A few others apparently think saying POP or NO POP without even bothering to say which path they were on is in any way useful at all.

So unless more folks take it seriously enough to post accurate information, you'll have to verify it all yourself, anyway. If the data here is to be believed, btw, it would seem that on Windsday, from 25% to 100%, Mad Bomber will not pop on the West side. That seems incredibly odd to me. Of course, so is the fact no one has reported seeing Mad Bomber at all on a Windsday.

[Suiram]

We actually had mad bomber pop on west side last windsday we went (93%? moon something like that). I think maybe let's all start over. Only use data collected from this point forward, and everyone post only for runs that the gameday where you entered was the same as the game day you chose the east or west path (so if it's 23:00 when you're about to go in, wait 3 min before entering if you want to post here). Post the game day element, moon phase (including waning or waxing), the RL date/hour in EST, whether or not Mad Bomber was up in the path you took, if it was whether it was in the North or South room of that path, and how many people were in your alliance.

I figure this is similar to Dynamis where for the most part a lot of runs are concentrated around the same times, so the best we can hope for is a few runs where different groups on different servers enter at the same time and get a conflicting result (implying it's random), or a series of identical results (suggesting a pattern of some sort).

[Sagacious Sundi]

What I'm nervous about is that some people screwed up and maybe said the wrong side/day/moon phase/something. Also, maybe time plays a factor? Bombs usually either appear in only A) Foggy whether (Low amount of bombs) B) Cool, dark areas (Low amount) C) Volcanic areas/their home (High amount). Fog would make the most sense of the 3 in this situation, but it might not be fog itself. Rather, fog only appears in morning/evening (or just morning) hours such as 1:00-7:00, right? So, maybe that plays a role.

[divisortheory]

Or maybe everyone said the right side, and he's just random?

[Sagacious Sundi]

Or maybe everyone said the right side, and he's just random?

Yeah, I'm leaning towards it being random. (Forgot to include, "this is assuming this isn't random" in my previous post.) But I think I just want to hope it isn't.

EDIT: Now I remember what I wanted to say in my original post: "But what I'm more nervous about is it being completely random..." but then that time idea popped up.

[mackerel]

We have yet to get a second report on any one game day/moon%. It is too soon to tell if the theory has any merit. I don't think starting over is the answer, we just need more data.

[Hiruke]

We actually had mad bomber pop on west side last windsday we went (93%? moon something like that). I think maybe let's all start over. Only use data collected from this point forward, and everyone post only for runs that the gameday where you entered was the same as the game day you chose the east or west path (so if it's 23:00 when you're about to go in, wait 3 min before entering if you want to post here). Post the game day element, moon phase (including waning or waxing), the RL date/hour in EST, whether or not Mad Bomber was up in the path you took, if it was whether it was in the North or South room of that path, and how many people were in your alliance.

I figure this is similar to Dynamis where for the most part a lot of runs are concentrated around the same times, so the best we can hope for is a few runs where different groups on different servers enter at the same time and get a conflicting result (implying it's random), or a series of identical results (suggesting a pattern of some sort).

The easiest way to resolve this is if a single LS has the resources to send multiple groups at the same time. That way, there's no confusion over whether the data is correct, and the moon/day/etc. will all be the same. If identical results occur a little too often, there may be something to it. If conflicting results occur, then that means there is either another factor involved or there's nothing to it at all.

I don't know about other folks, but a lack of people with THF leveled who are interested in going makes doing such not really worth my while. (The non-THF run wouldn't dig it, naturally.)

I imagine unless someone makes this their pet project, we won't get enough hard data until Salvage is "easy" enough for everyone else to join in.

[Sci]

Another possibility could be what the game clock is when you open the door. e.g. Open the door on an odd time, pops East. Even time, pops West.

But that sort of thing would need to be tested by the same person on different runs to account for differences in lag and when they mark the time down as well. As long as someone can be consistant in their measurement method, then they can vary their times and collect some useful data.

[mackerel]

There are many other possible variables, and it could be totally random. Still, for now, there's no contradicting data to the theory that it pops on a certain side for each day/moon%. More data please!

[Myria]

waterday 5% no pop

edit: west side

sorry, I just always assume west side because you'd be nuts to start east

[Suiram]

waterday 5% no pop

A few others apparently think saying POP or NO POP without even bothering to say which path they were on is in any way useful at all.

[Narse]

Watersday, 62% Waxing, popped in the SW room.

[Khamsin]

waterday 5% no pop

edit: west side

sorry, I just always assume west side because you'd be nuts to start east

Well, in that light, does any of this data collecting even matter if no one is ever going to go east for Mad Bomber once this is all figured out? lol