Assault Breastplate info

[Doleman]

I've never tried to zone from a locked exp scroll, but I'm assuming it would. I wasn't too bummed about not getting a Behemoth Hide or Breastplate, because it took me like 50 tries before I even seen one of them, and I believe the first item he would have given to me if I did not have a full inventory was a Tiger Eye

[Bakthi]

See, that screen shot illustrates what I was saying. What good is seeing that you would have gotten an assault breastplate if there's no way to actually get it?

Because now you know there's a way for someone to get it, which may inspire more people to do this more often (or may inspire you to keep trying). Basically, it's a faster way of researching potential drops. Before I read this thread, I'd never heard of behemoth hides or angel skin coming from this thing, and I've done the full-inventory trick a dozen times, plus accepted the first thing he gave me dozens of other times.

[Missnasty]

See, that screen shot illustrates what I was saying. What good is seeing that you would have gotten an assault breastplate if there's no way to actually get it?

Because now you know there's a way for someone to get it, which may inspire more people to do this more often (or may inspire you to keep trying). Basically, it's a faster way of researching potential drops. Before I read this thread, I'd never heard of behemoth hides or angel skin coming from this thing, and I've done the full-inventory trick a dozen times, plus accepted the first thing he gave me dozens of other times.

But I already knew the Assault Breastplate was a possible reward and evokers and I heard about behe hides. Seeing possible drops doesn't really change what you will get though which is what I was getting at from the very beginning. The entire discussion was about being able to pick an item by talking to the guy and zoning to get him to change it. Not zoning was supposed to make him offer you the same item so you could effectively manipulate the game to give you the drop you wanted.

[Raineer]

The best answer is probably "that's how websites knew the full list of what the BC dropped like 18 months ago"

Now I guess you'd do that if you like pain.

[safer]

how long ago did you try this? coulda sworn it was fixed

anyways did you see a pattern with him offering drops? could be a way to somehow determine what the next item can possibly be?

[Fryte]

I've done this over a dozen times and have never seen anything of value as a reward (besides XP scroll) when I do it with only 2 people. Am I just unlucky?

[Demitrius]

If the above poster's observations are accurate, the odds of getting an AB if you don't get a scroll would appear to be about 6/300, or 2%. The observed odds of getting a scroll are around 50%. Personally, I've gotten a scroll 5 of the 7 times I've done the BC, getting Crimson Jelly the other two times. If you count the 50% scroll rate into the equation, your odds are 1%. A crappy rate to say the least, but still possible, and the other higher-quality synth items might be higher.

Now consider that 1% chance in a group of 18 people. That's an 18% chance to pull an AB out. Supposing that Angel Skin, Behemoth Hides, Cloud Evokers, Siren Hair, and other good items also drop at a 1% rate, you'll average around 1 "valuable" item in an 18-man run. Plus whatever Habu Skins and Mannequin Parts, etc., you pull out.

Again, I'm making a lot of assumptions, but this seems like a likely scenario at the moment.

[Jackyl]

If the above poster's observations are accurate, the odds of getting an AB if you don't get a scroll would appear to be about 6/300, or 2%. The observed odds of getting a scroll are around 50%. Personally, I've gotten a scroll 5 of the 7 times I've done the BC, getting Crimson Jelly the other two times. If you count the 50% scroll rate into the equation, your odds are 1%. A crappy rate to say the least, but still possible, and the other higher-quality synth items might be higher.

Now consider that 1% chance in a group of 18 people. That's an 18% chance to pull an AB out. Supposing that Angel Skin, Behemoth Hides, Cloud Evokers, Siren Hair, and other good items also drop at a 1% rate, you'll average around 1 "valuable" item in an 18-man run. Plus whatever Habu Skins and Mannequin Parts, etc., you pull out.

Again, I'm making a lot of assumptions, but this seems like a likely scenario at the moment.

No. That is a 1% chance 18 times. According to your rule of probability, if I went and synthesized a tier 0 item (let's say it's 1% chance HQ for the sake of the example) 100 times, I am guaranteed to HQ 1; this is obviously false as we all know.

[careswww]

Actually it's [1-(0.99^n)]*100%, n being the number of tries.(tries being people or attempts at it)
This will give 1% at 1 try, 4.9% at 5 tries, 16.5% at 18 tries, 63.5% at 100 tries 99,9% at 1000 tries, etc, it will never hit 100%

[geno]

Not to mention, that says nothing for the actual reward of going WITH 18 people. Technically, 18 people going solo (or 9 pairs of people) to this BC in one weeks time should yield the same results, assuming the % chance of obtaining AB or rare crafting materials is not dependent on # of people in the BC fight.

edit: referring to post before and including jackyls

[Wizrow]

Did this with one other person. I've done it dozens of times before and never gotten an xp scroll. All i get are stupid food dishs. One yesterday gave me a Cloud Evoker.

I always check the guy first, then the second person checks him. He's almost always gotten an XP scroll and i've never gotten one.


-- just throwing that out there.

[Jackyl]

Did this with one other person. I've done it dozens of times before and never gotten an xp scroll. All i get are stupid food dishs. One yesterday gave me a Cloud Evoker.

I always check the guy first, then the second person checks him. He's almost always gotten an XP scroll and i've never gotten one.


-- just throwing that out there.

Well, cloud evoker is really the best reward you can get from the loot table. (assuming you've got the resources to put the orb to use) Grats?

[aurik]

I think b.hide is the best drop, because you don't need to hire out the services of 17 other people to get your ouryu/baha2 loot.

[Jackyl]

I think b.hide is the best drop, because you don't need to hire out the services of 17 other people to get your ouryu/baha2 loot.

but you can't buy bahamut's staff or mask! :3

hehe, my linkshell actually offers a service for cloud evokers where the client keeps all drops from ouryu minus the monarch orb which we keep.

[aurik]

I think b.hide is the best drop, because you don't need to hire out the services of 17 other people to get your ouryu/baha2 loot.

but you can't buy bahamut's staff or mask! :3

hehe, my linkshell actually offers a service for cloud evokers where the client keeps all drops from ouryu minus the monarch orb which we keep.

That's a pretty good deal for people not in a LS that can make anything out of cloud evokers!

[Jackyl]

I think b.hide is the best drop, because you don't need to hire out the services of 17 other people to get your ouryu/baha2 loot.

but you can't buy bahamut's staff or mask! :3

hehe, my linkshell actually offers a service for cloud evokers where the client keeps all drops from ouryu minus the monarch orb which we keep.

That's a pretty good deal for people not in a LS that can make anything out of cloud evokers!

Yup! I tried to advertise a little on a few forums but only had a couple responses so far, sadly ._.

[Demitrius]

Let me rephrase. If the odds are 1% then you'll get .18 breastplates in 18 tries, on average. Since the possibility of getting more than one in that time exists, then the odds of getting at least one will be lower than 18%. If you try to HQ 100 times, you'll get an average of 1 HQ.

Statisticians happy? Good. More info prz lol.