Official Tests on Crafting Theories

[Elmer the Pointy]

My friend got me this book on crafting for FFXI. It's like a database of recipies and materials, but interspersed within them are some Crafter's Columns segments. In these, the group that made this book tests various crafting theories to see their actual results.

Some of this will be common knowledge and some might be OFN, but I thought I'd share anyway.

[Elmer the Pointy]

Does direction have any effect on crafting?

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft1p1.jpg

For the first test, they tried to find the effects of the cardinal directions on crafting results. They say the differences between NQ/HQ/Break were negligible, varying only slightly. It is their belief that facing different directions has no relation to whether your synth will HQ or break.

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft1p2.jpg

- 300 attempts each
- Clothcraft 96 – Chocobo Fletchings
- Moon: 50% waning
- Lightning Day
- Wind Crystal
SouthEast: Wind , North: Dark

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft1p3.jpg

1st row is SE, second is N
Last 3 columns are percetages: NQ, HQ, break

[Elmer the Pointy]

Is crafting related to the current day!?

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft2p1.jpg

For the second test, they check the effects of the current day on crafting results. Again they find the deviation is too small to say it has any real effect.

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft2p2.jpg

- 300 attempts each
- Clothcraft 96 – Chocobo Fletchings
- Moon: 50% waning
- Facing North
- Wind Crystal
Weak element: Earthday
Neutral: Windday
Strong: Iceday


http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft2p3.jpg

1st row: Weak , 2nd row: Neutral , 3rd Row: Strong

[Elmer the Pointy]

What kind of boost do furniture effects give?

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft3p1.jpg

This test involves the use of furniture elemental aura to reduce the amount of ingredients lost when breaking a synth. They test at three different levels: none, weak and very strong. It seems beneficial to have an aura of some sort, but between weak and strong there is much less difference.

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft3p2.jpg

- 300 attempts each
- Cooking 10 – Apple Juice
- Lightningday
- Moon: 50% Waxing
- Facing North
- Mog House Aura: None, Weak, Very Strong

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft3p3.jpg

1st row: None , 2nd row: Weak , 3rd row: Very Strong
1st column: Total lost , 2nd column: Average lost per synth

[Elmer the Pointy]

Is the myth about the Full Moon true!?

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft4p1.jpg

Here they test to see if moon phases will affect crafting results. They specifically write about Full Moon, where they believe it becomes easier to both HQ and break a synth.

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft4p2.jpg

- 300 attempts for each moon phase
- Clothcraft 96 – Chocobo Fletchings
- Lightningday
- Facing North
- Moon Phases: New, Full, 50% Waxing and Waning

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft4p3.jpg

1st Row: New Moon , 2nd Row: Full Moon , 3rd Row: 50% Waning , 4th Row: 50% Waxing
失敗 = break

[Elmer the Pointy]

Is the success rate of Desynthing affected by Crafting Support?

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft5p1.jpg

This last test is seeing if you Desynthing results will change if you get Support from the guild. They find in the end that does not significantly raise your chance of success, but it will help lower the chance of losing the item you are working on.

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft5p2.jpg

- 300 attempts each
- Leathcraft 60 – Leather Vest
- Moon: Quarter Moon Waning
- Windday
- Facing North
- Support: With , Without

http://www.cactusleaftl.com/ffxipics/craft5p3.jpg

1st Row: With , 2nd Row: Without
失敗 = break
ロスト個数 = total lost
ロスト率 = percentage lost

[Elmer the Pointy]

The pictures are all up now! Moving to Crafting...

[Runningdemon]

I find a few of the results they posted as goofy. I know for sure I see about 5% more HQs than what those guys show on what I call good HQ days, even more so on the best days. Heck, even on my bad days I hit 47% (today) HQs, which is better than their posted stuff.

In addition, let's take their sample size of 300 and not that it ignores time of day and has no way of correcting for moon effects on the %.

Anyway, I find the info very laughable, the sample size is far too small and not organized well enough at all to account for multiple factors.

For a realistic study, you'd need 100 synths in a given unique set of variables to get a good baseline. And as far as I can tell from the latest data I am collecting that means 112000 synths to get a reliable working baseline. (14000 if you do not believe that time of day is a factor) That includes all variables that move around you, time, moon, day, etc. Then once you get that baseline, you can do another 800 or so correcting for moon/time/day differences to get the directional influences.

Anyway, way I see it, to get what i'd call reliable data, you'd need 113000 runs of the same synth across all moons/days/times, not the 3-4k it looks like they did.

I'll post my new data once I can, but have revamped my whole database of recorded synths for what I believe is a new important factor and cannot convert the old synth data to the new format for inability to identify the factor on my old synths.

[Runningdemon]

Make that 16800 if you don't believe in time 135400 if you do, had my math a little off.

[Keno]

Amazing, thank you for finally debunking these myths.

[Tekki]

Ill admit that direction doesnt seem to play a factor on my side. But I can garuntee you that day does, and moon can effect what you are synthing. Right now Ive synthed so much that I tend to synth whenever the hell I want but when I am deliberate with my synths, I have better, more consistent success. My biggest concnern is synthing on day I deemed from experience as "high break risk" days for that particular synth and crystal. There sample size really is pretty small, but thans for the read Elmer.

[kamalii]

I'm one of those off the wall people that believe in full/new moon, but it depending on the craft and the time of day. And, recently, I had a friend synth a Weskit for me when I asked him to (Windsdsay New Moon). When he crafted during the daytime hours, he was 0/7. After 20:00, he went 2/3 Genie.

Now, it could have been that the randomness caught up with him, and we got lucky. But, thats why I time my crafts to be during certain Vana hours. Of course, I have yet to craft a Dalma -1, damnit (0/7, 4breaks)

[Koga]

Very nice information. Thanks again Elmer :D

[mikazuki]

runningdemon is correct the statistical analysis of the people who did that test is weak, i understand the limitations in sample size but because SE are SE it's likely rates change by 1% if at all, 300 tests would therefore show as only -+3, and error would make it difficult to spot that, if they did 1000 test synths instead of 300 then it would be reasonable data.

they seem to have shown neutral day reduces break rate, strong day moves hq to higher tier, while the nq rate does not vary. grouping the hqs into one % is not helpful.

their directional synths are no good, why haven't they faced into ice and earth? again though they show nq rate doesn't vary, but dark seems to have moved hqs up in tier.

the moghancement data seems correct and reasonable, but why does it state total lost as greater than the sample size? what am i missing here.

the moon interpretation seems good but they should have ordered the rows new > waxing > full > waning, that might reveal a further trend.

[Elmer the Pointy]

the moghancement data seems correct and reasonable, but why does it state total lost as greater than the sample size? what am i missing here.

I took a look to make sure this wasn't my error and figured it out. Each of the 300 synths of Apple Juice uses 4 apples. (right?) So that means those numbers are out of 1,200 total ingredients.

[mikazuki]

thanks, i could see the figures were sensible but not what they represented.

[brezick]

Crafting Theory.

Select items
Hit Ok
(Hidden /Random)
If Skill Level - Synth level > 50.1 Then
If Random > 501 = HQ
If Random < 50 = Break
Else NQ
EndIf
ElseIF Skill Level - Synth level > 30.1 Then
If Random > 666 = HQ
If Random < 50 = Break
Else NQ
EndIf
ElseIF Skill Level - Synth level > 10.1 Then
If Random > 899 = HQ
If Random < 50 = Break
Else NQ
EndIf
EndIf


Nothing else matters.

[Gere]

http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?f ... =41;page=1
This guy came to a similar conclusion.

And if I remember my statistics correctly (which I probably don't) a sample size of 300 would give them a margin of error of + or - 5%.

[Zragnarok]

IMO, the only way to know if all those factor have some effect on crafting is to craft the same item, at the same time ( exact moon phase, exact time, exact elemental day, etc. ) and do it more than 2 times lol. It's the only way to know if at, for example, 20:06, on lightsday full moon, you will HQ or have more chance to HQ. But it would take so much time and the same exact time ingame would happen at so random times IRL that it's really hard to do this lol Maybe someday, when I have more time, I could do this and share the results.

Edit : And I don't believe much in those test and facts because they didn't consider so much factor. It's impossible to find the formula or how it works by making this. You need to try different times and different situations and they didn't.

[Varg]

I gave up on all these superstitions a long time ago. Occam's razor (paraphrased)- often the simplest explanation tends to be the best one. I also feel that since every interview done with anyone from SE that has this question is answered by giggles and 'secrets are best left secrets' indicates they did no such thing and love the fact that you're giving their staff more credit than they're worth for designing such an 'in depth and tricky' craft system. If a day is about to turn - do I wait? sure, but there's no way I'm waiting to do large chunks of synths at specific times/moons when past experience, time and again, has shown that to be a waste of time and sometimes sleep.