The Monty Hall Problem

[GRT]

nah, in mathmatics human behavior is irrelevent

Right, but then how do you postulate that 50% will choose to stay and 50% choose to switch? That prediction is baseless. Mathematics would answer the question like this: Those who stay have a

is it really? what's the probability of choosing (switch) and (not switch) without knowing which one has better result?

[Seyrr]

btw i'm ignoring the other two guys because one makes up numbers and other one is obviously a conformist idiot

Oh? Which one am I? Notice that one of those links lets you run 10, 100, 1000, or 10k trials in a row. If you're accusing me of making up numbers, I'd like to see some proof.

[Seyrr]

nah, in mathmatics human behavior is irrelevent

Right, but then how do you postulate that 50% will choose to stay and 50% choose to switch? That prediction is baseless. Mathematics would answer the question like this: Those who stay have a

is it really? what's the probability of choosing (switch) and (not switch) without knowing which one has better result?

It's a meaningless question. We're not asking "What will this room full of people we grabbed choose to do?" We're asking "What strategy gives the greatest chance of winning the car?" And that strategy is "always switch", with a 2/3 success rate.

[BarthelloSylph]

Why do you keep saying its 50/50?

Choosing between 2 doors, and guessing correctly is 50%

Switching from your original choice to the other door, after you picking originally from 3 doors then the host revealed one of the 2 doors you didnt pick as being incorrect, is 66%.

In the latter situation, even though there are 2 doors, if you SWITCH, you have a 66% of winning.

GRT, we've proven this. Can you prove otherwise?

[Enkidu]

nah, in mathmatics human behavior is irrelevent

Right, but then how do you postulate that 50% will choose to stay and 50% choose to switch? That prediction is baseless. Mathematics would answer the question like this: Those who stay have a

is it really? what's the probability of choosing (switch) and (not switch) without knowing which one has better result?

Still a baseless assumption, math does not do that.

[GRT]

nah, in mathmatics human behavior is irrelevent

Right, but then how do you postulate that 50% will choose to stay and 50% choose to switch? That prediction is baseless. Mathematics would answer the question like this: Those who stay have a

is it really? what's the probability of choosing (switch) and (not switch) without knowing which one has better result?

Still a baseless assumption, math does not do that.

math does not do "assumptions" anyway, math is a yes or no world

assumptions come from real world, and in the real world statistics study by the UCSD site, half of the people switched and half did not... so that's base enough for me

and as a result, half of everybody who participated won, making the overall winning ratio to be roughly 50%, doesn't matter how the other idiots try to twist the wording of the posts here, that remains a fact

and i'm rather satisfied by it

there's zero point on arguing about anything that's factual, especially in math, so i think this will be my last post on this subject

to whoever needs this: again, i did get pwned by people pointing out that the poll question was poorly worded, so go ahead and dance or jackoff or whatever you do when you are high, hope you have a good time :wink:

[evilbau]

nah, in mathmatics human behavior is irrelevent

Right, but then how do you postulate that 50% will choose to stay and 50% choose to switch? That prediction is baseless. Mathematics would answer the question like this: Those who stay have a

is it really? what's the probability of choosing (switch) and (not switch) without knowing which one has better result?

Still a baseless assumption, math does not do that.

math does not do "assumptions" anyway, math is a yes or no world

assumptions come from real world, and in the real world statistics study by the UCSD site, half of the people switched and half did not... so that's base enough for me

and as a result, half of everybody who participated won, making the overall winning ratio to be roughly 50%, doesn't matter how the other idiots try to twist the wording of the posts here, that remains a fact

and i'm rather satisfied by it

there's zero point on arguing about anything that's factual, especially in math, so i think this will be my last post on this subject

to whoever needs this: again, i did get pwned by people pointing out that the poll question was poorly worded, so go ahead and dance or jackoff or whatever you do when you are high, hope you have a good time :wink:

you don't make assumptions in math? lol every problem solved involves assumptions

[aurik]

nah, in mathmatics human behavior is irrelevent

Right, but then how do you postulate that 50% will choose to stay and 50% choose to switch? That prediction is baseless. Mathematics would answer the question like this: Those who stay have a

is it really? what's the probability of choosing (switch) and (not switch) without knowing which one has better result?

Still a baseless assumption, math does not do that.

math does not do "assumptions" anyway, math is a yes or no world

assumptions come from real world, and in the real world statistics study by the UCSD site, half of the people switched and half did not... so that's base enough for me

and as a result, half of everybody who participated won, making the overall winning ratio to be roughly 50%, doesn't matter how the other idiots try to twist the wording of the posts here, that remains a fact

and i'm rather satisfied by it

there's zero point on arguing about anything that's factual, especially in math, so i think this will be my last post on this subject

to whoever needs this: again, i did get pwned by people pointing out that the poll question was poorly worded, so go ahead and dance or jackoff or whatever you do when you are high, hope you have a good time :wink:

nobody cares what half the people did in a given study.

The question is "what percentage winning is the optimal strategy". The answer to that is 66%.

Edit: also rofl @ you saying that the initial choice has 0% chance of being correct. ITT we try to save face indeed.

[Enkidu]

nah, in mathmatics human behavior is irrelevent

Right, but then how do you postulate that 50% will choose to stay and 50% choose to switch? That prediction is baseless. Mathematics would answer the question like this: Those who stay have a

is it really? what's the probability of choosing (switch) and (not switch) without knowing which one has better result?

Still a baseless assumption, math does not do that.

assumptions come from real world, and in the real world statistics study by the UCSD site, half of the people switched and half did not... so that's base enough for me

That is just silly. That isn't a study, it's a website. If you polled the statistics wing at MIT you'd end up with ~67 winning. If you polled Mrs. Smiths 4 year old kindergarten who knows what you would get. Like I said, it's a psychological question coupled with prior knowledge.

In the end even if you assume people who don't know any better would randomly choose, you'd still end up with MORE choosing to switch, since there are a bunch of people who understand the problem.

[scrockstar]

wow 8 pages already, the only way you could get 50% is if you flip a coin after the first door is shown to you (heads switch, tails stick with your first choice). Otherwise by you sticking with the door that you first picked, the fact that you got to see what was behind one of the other 2 doors does not help you @ all. Think of it this way, by picking not to switch you render yourself in the same position as the one you started in; a 1 in 3 chance of picking the right door.

[Xfaustx]

Touche Byrd. You are correct.

I'm sure xfaustx and GRW or whatever will come together tomorrow to prove that and everything else wrong, and go on live incredible lives as breakthrough mathematicians.

Oh wait, I've got some breaking news. That was supposed to be molesters. They will become molesters. Oops.

sweet. ima be a mathmetician.





youll be my 1st molestation o.o;;

[GRT]

this is starting to bug me a little

why do some people all of a sudden become selectively blind to the question at the top after the UCSD statistics come out, and starting making up their own questions like "what's the best strategy" or "what smart people do in this case"

funnier they aren't the OP's question either:

So, do you stay, do you switch, and does it matter either way?

what do "smart" people do when there's no answer to that question in the polls? you read the polls question and answer that one

and then there's all those people who kept arguing as if 2/3 was the only answer then after those statistics come out started to go "oh, but if you switched, you get 2/3! of course you get 1/3 if you stayed!"

give me a break

and 2/3 answers neither the OP's question nor the poll question; at least i answered the OP's question the first time i posted in this thread while everyone else unsure of themselves were still arguing

and i assume whoever is insisting that the UCSD statistics are meaningless could give me an explaination to why half of the people switched and half of the people didn't and make me look like a complete ass

sigh

what bugs me even more is--i know i will indeed look like a complete ass by saying this--how many people picked 1/2 after looking at my arguements and PM me saying that they agree/support me or whatever... if you really wanted to back me up, then post in this thread! the idiots are the ones who "save face" by jumping on the bandwagon or avoid flames: this is an internet forum where we all come here to waste our time, nobody knows who you really are, what face are you trying to save anyway? if we get an even arguement like the poll suggests then there'd be a lot less comformist comments and we can really get the truth out; having posted a couple thousand times here really doesn't mean they are smarter than everyone else

but enough with the QQ, your penis doesn't get bigger if i win a forum arguements anyway, controrary to popular belief

[Xfaustx]

GRT DONT ASK QUESTIONS OR OPPOSE THEIR ANSWERS YOULL GET BANNED SIR. I SAY THIS FOR YOUR OWN GOOD.

[aurik]

enjoy flipping burgers all your life

[Enkidu]

and i assume whoever is insisting that the UCSD statistics are meaningless could give me an explaination to why half of the people switched and half of the people didn't and make me look like a complete ass

Because the statistics mean nothing. I could click Door1 on the website 1 million times and guess what, your "statistics" would look like shit. I could also switch 1 million times and again, your statistics would look like shit. The websites purpose is NOT to poll people as to whether or not they would switch or stay, it's to prove the monty hall problem by example.

I don't really understand why you believe you're right in the first place. At first your justification was just flat out wrong, then you changed it to a "mathematical" model based on baseless assumptions, then you use a website in a way in which is was not designed, and now you have the balls to say "I'm right you're wrong now stop posting lawl"? Man I love the intranet.

[Xfaustx]

enjoy flipping burgers all your life

never flipped a burger in my life and never will, cept on a grill. mmm mmm MMMM. its funny coming from you. prolly 35 and still playing video games. just ban me damn.

[Bagel]

Poor GRT

[aurik]

enjoy flipping burgers all your life

never flipped a burger in my life and never will, cept on a grill. mmm mmm MMMM. its funny coming from you. prolly 35 and still playing video games. just ban me damn.

oh sorry, cleaning tables.

[Xfaustx]

enjoy flipping burgers all your life

never flipped a burger in my life and never will, cept on a grill. mmm mmm MMMM. its funny coming from you. prolly 35 and still playing video games. just ban me damn.

oh sorry, cleaning tables.

nope. keep tryin though.

[Demosthenes11]

people don't want to ban you because they disagree with you, they want to ban you because you are fucking annoying as shit
no comprende?