[NEW]Speed Belt/O. Kote/CC/Striders/Serket Ring

[Priran]

http://www.uploadfile.info/uploads/88b9483fe2.jpg


shitshitshitshitshitshit

[Khamsin]

As for testing, it should be fairly simple. Go farm beehive chips as a non-THF or /THF until you get 10 stacks, then go as THF without armlets or knife and farm until you get 10 more stacks. Then farm 10 more stacks with just armlet, then 10 more with just knife. And finally, 10 more with armlets and knife.

Then we can see what TH really does, and whether its worth having for Fafnir, Dynamis, Timmy, Cerb, Khimaira, etc. assuming that they increase drop rates of Ridill, AF2, gaiters, algol and hauteclaire the same +% as was seen for beehive chips.

But then again, that's pretty much what was already done in the spreadsheet linked above, only with greater birds instead of bees. While it would be nice have different test mobs to see if the +% is consistent among them, even the bee test alone would be too much for a single THF to perform on their own without pulling their hair out.

Since there's no such thing as personal luck factors or anything, any two THFs should be the same if they equip the same gear. So all those tests could probably be performed by 5 different people at the same time, or even 10 people each farming half the amount, rather than 1 person farming a total of 50 stacks of chips. Unless, of course, Avesta wants to do it.

[Jeryhn]

Isn't this all assuming there's such a thing as "TH4"?

For instance, most job traits start off at a set value, and when the character continues to level the job, the effects of these traits become enhanced (Clear Mind is a perfect example).

When it comes to Treasure Hunter, there are two different traits (Treasure Hunter and Treasure Hunter II). Its entirely feasible that both traits effect drops, but in different ways (for instance, one could effect quantity of drops, and the other could effect quality).

Secondly, the Assassin Armlets and Thief Knife both say "Treasure Hunter +1". Does this mean it only enhances the effects of Treasure Hunter I, or the effects of both traits?

[divisortheory]

Secondly, the Assassin Armlets and Thief Knife both say "Treasure Hunter +1". Does this mean it only enhances the effects of Treasure Hunter I, or the effects of both traits?

I don't think it matters really. TH4 is just a pseudonym to what could more correctly be written "Treasure Hunter +2". It doesn't matter whether it applies to Treasure Hunter I, or Treasure Hunter II, or both since if you can equip any piece of gear with Treasure Hunter+ on it, you are guaranteed to have both traits (TH1 and TH2) anyway. Comparing "TH2" to "TH3" and "TH4" is still perfectly valid, because it's impossible to have TH3 without TH2, and it's impossible to have TH4 without TH3. Therefore each one is guaranteed to be stronger (in some sense) than all of the previous ones.

[Don Katsu]

Thread derailed again haha

I'll be trying to gather a group for Scarlet King KSNM today or tomorrow. I'll let you know how it goes. If someone has already tried this BC over 12 times since update please speak now <.<

[safer]

Since there's no such thing as personal luck factors or anything, any two THFs should be the same if they equip the same gear.

you mean my wild rarab tail / 4leaf bud / lucky egg ive had in my storage since forever dont mean anything!??!?!!?

to stay on topic though... a few of us are doing the cardian KS and seasons greetings tonight.. i'll report back anything i find out

[Bagel]

I hate meritting w/ THFs at Nyzul, not because of any lolTHF stigma or positioning issues, but because I lose more seals because of all the extra feathers and beaks dropping.

[shihei]

except i dont need some idiot doing tests since that will not always be the same result for each person.
luck factor is the number one factor for drops.

Do you understand the relationship between "% chance of drop", "luck", and "different results for each people"? Your quote above is probably the dumbest shit I've ever heard.

i don think you do if you have to ask that. just cause some guy did some tests doesnt mean you are going to have the exact same result with or without using the same data. knife or not.
We all can read what the job traits do in the menu. thank you. we can also read right on the knife it gives a +1 like so many of the other items in the game do. +1.
Useless. idk it seems to be good for derailing atleast.
and for getting drops i would say

[shihei]

it is not too far fetched to think ppl can have different luck factors.
like some thf going 1/1 on pre-update knife. and some 1/111+.
kinda like how crafting can be. different times. moon phases.

[Khamsin]

it is not too far fetched to think ppl can have different luck factors.
like some thf going 1/1 on pre-update knife. and some 1/111+.
kinda like how crafting can be. different times. moon phases.

Maybe things like moon or time affect luck, its hard to say. But nobody is ever lucky or unlucky on a personal level as far as game coding goes. Sure, you may lot two-digit numbers for your next 10 dynamises, and you may bust your next 10 synths in a row on full moon lightsday. Anything that utilizes random numbers can turn out that way, and maybe you were just unlucky the same as you would be if you lost a coin toss 10 times in a row. But I highly doubt there's any hidden factor in the game mechanics that influences random chance events by some personal karma factor. If you bust 10 synths in a row and lot two-digit numbers in dynamis, its just a coincidence and not because the random number generator was more inclined to screw you than anyone else.

[divisortheory]

Do you understand the relationship between "% chance of drop", "luck", and "different results for each people"? Your quote above is probably the dumbest shit I've ever heard.

i don think you do if you have to ask that. just cause some guy did some tests doesnt mean you are going to have the exact same result with or without using the same data. knife or not.
We all can read what the job traits do in the menu. thank you. we can also read right on the knife it gives a +1 like so many of the other items in the game do. +1.
Useless. idk it seems to be good for derailing atleast.
and for getting drops i would say

Ok, let me spell it out for you. If an item has a 1% drop rate, you need to be lucky in order to get the drop. However, with a large enough sample size, the you will be lucky often enough that the results are meaningful. Therefore, even though different people will get different results, the % chance of drop is still the same for them.

By your logic, all testing is utterly meaningless, all drops are determined by magical forces that don't follow normal laws of statistics, and even if they did, it would still be worthless because statistics itself is worthless.

kinda like how crafting can be. different times. moon phases.

At least I know I don't have to read any of your future posts. I bet you're a direction / elemental resistance guy.

[Septimus]

it is not too far fetched to think ppl can have different luck factors.
like some thf going 1/1 on pre-update knife. and some 1/111+.
kinda like how crafting can be. different times. moon phases.

Maybe things like moon or time affect luck, its hard to say. But nobody is ever lucky or unlucky on a personal level as far as game coding goes. Sure, you may lot two-digit numbers for your next 10 dynamises, and you may bust your next 10 synths in a row on full moon lightsday. Anything that utilizes random numbers can turn out that way, and maybe you were just unlucky the same as you would be if you lost a coin toss 10 times in a row. But I highly doubt there's any hidden factor in the game mechanics that influences random chance events by some personal karma factor. If you bust 10 synths in a row and lot two-digit numbers in dynamis, its just a coincidence and not because the random number generator was more inclined to screw you than anyone else.

I've said it a billion times, and I will keep on saying it. I think that everyone has a personal luck number for any given day. If you have a high luck number for that day you will get good stuff while farming and get many HQs and skill ups. If you have a low luck number for that day you will get crappy things while farming and lots of broken synths.

At least that is what it seems like to me...

[Vedder]

Abjurations are a fixed drop rate, ~75% single-drop, ~25% double drop, and one of Kirin's abjurations is "none".

Did not know that... I totally believe you, but how do you know that? I guess someone, somewhere did a study.

So this makes the Kirin adj. droprate ~60.9375% single-drop, ~18.75% double-drop, and ~20.3125% no-drop?

[Sagacious Sundi]

I bet you're a direction / elemental resistance guy.

Okay, direction I get, but people think elemental resistance does something? If there were skilldowns for breaking stuff, then I could understand them decreasing that. Or do they mean wearing Resist Fire+ will help when using ice crystals on Firesday or something? >_>

Also, I remember someone suggesting Cactuar Suave earlier. That also fits the whole "the speed belt battle must use Clotho orbs" theory.

[TheDiscoBiscuit]

Kinda along the lines of what Sept said. For certain things, there surely are elements (not literally) that have an impact on other things. But I do think some people tend to be overly ambitious in trying to "figure out" the "secret" to said craft/item/drop, whatever. While many things can be statistically tested, I do think FF players like to add alot of rumors/heresay to things that are simply based on luck. Like Kalia's tests for TH. One person can go out and get results that match exactly to what he did. Another can go out and get very poor results that make his data look superficial. Yet another can go out and defy all odds and have a 100% rate. There's alot we can 99.9% declare set in stone, while that .1% leads to threads like this. Stats can back you up, or call your bluffs. Too much randomness in FF to say one way or another, imo. Which also makes playing the game fun. If we knew all the answers, what would we have to try for?

[aurik]

Abjurations are a fixed drop rate, ~75% single-drop, ~25% double drop, and one of Kirin's abjurations is "none".

Did not know that... I totally believe you, but how do you know that? I guess someone, somewhere did a study.

So this makes the Kirin adj. droprate ~60.9375% single-drop, ~18.75% double-drop, and ~20.3125% no-drop?

based on someone's tracking of about 40ish kirins plus the associated subgods

[Eltia]

TH is hard to measure since the dawn of time, because:

- it is hard to keep only the TH variable while everything else constant; mobs you sample are not necessary the same level; elements of day, moon phase and weather could change;
- large sample size takes too much time to gather with other people running around, dynamis, limbus, savages, BCNM, nature's call, etc.
- number of people in your alliance affects overall drop rate. (I believe this has been confirmed by SE? The more people you have, the more likely an increase in number of drops.)
- the definition of TH1 and TH2 are inherently ambiguous.

So in short, let's just focus on a way to get answers from SE instead unless someone is willing to dedicate months to gather test data. Just my 2 cents.

[Jaffar]

every time this thread gets an orange dot next to it, my hopes of a belt drop pic goes up... only to be disappointed :/

[Khamsin]

One person can go out and get results that match exactly to what he did. Another can go out and get very poor results that make his data look superficial. Yet another can go out and defy all odds and have a 100% rate. There's alot we can 99.9% declare set in stone, while that .1% leads to threads like this. Stats can back you up, or call your bluffs. Too much randomness in FF to say one way or another, imo.

While one person can flip a coin 50 times and always get heads, and another can flip the same coin 50 times and always get tails, if you graph the number of times it happens versus other outcomes, you'll find it is very rare. Statistics is all about calculating errors, variances, deviations, correlation, confidence, and basically just better equips us to be able to judge whether or not we can trust our data.

We can look at a decent sample size and not be afraid that we're only looking at a fluke lucky (or unlucky) streak based on various checks and calculations you can perform on the data set. The confidence level and interval, for example, can be an indication of whether our sample size is large enough.

Since random is random whether using a perfectly weighted die in real life, or farming drops or crafting in FFXI, we can use what we know about random outcomes and probability to find information about FFXI mechanics with some degree of confidence. If the data set is just a rare fluke, then it should be apparent in the various statistical analyses you can perform on it.

This is, of course, assuming that there are no hidden factors beyond simple random numbers and probability at play, and that every event is independent with the same chance of an outcome as any other of the same event performed under the same conditions.

[jPuff]

Yeah. So since this topic has absolutely nothing to do with Speed Belt/O. Kote/CC/Striders/Serket Ring anymore (again) can we lock any and all threads related to these topics until someone has actual info? The thread reached a new low when someone suggested that Speed Belt might drop from Ix'NMs now =|