Droprates...

[Osede]

Good example with the casino. Also of course for people who are camping Argus the likelihood of it not dropping 20000 times in a row is very, very low. :>

off topic

err casino, depends on which. From my professor experience on the probability function for the casino, he told us that the slot machine it self has a some sort of probability software, which if you know the software well, you can estimate/predict when it gonna jackpot or close to it. Well, this one of the reason why most of casino they not allow the casino related worker to play in the casino.

That professor got a friend who work for the slot machine software in Las Vegas, then he went to alantic city to use the info to try on those slot machine there. Well, he did win quite amount of money(millions?). But he is stupid enough that he use his actual name to register for hotel etc, end up they found that he is one of the software programmer for the casino machine, then all his winning money had to return lol

[Nikko]

Weird timing for me since i've been camping argus pretty hardcore for the past two weeks. 0/3 on argus and 1/3 on LK... during the same two weeks two people went 1/1 on argus, two people went 0/1 on argus, one person went 0/2 on LK, and two people went 0/1 on LK.

Argus total: 2/7

LK total: 1/7

After a really depressing claim loss yesterday followed by a drop for someone else, the bottom line is this camp is gay.

[Septimus]

If you flip a perfectly balanced coin a dozen times and it lands on heads every time, what's the probibility that it will land on tails?

And the only part that matters:

[...] you flip a perfectly balanced coin [...] what's the probibility that it will land on tails?

In no part of that was it mentioned that the coin was not double-headed... People keep presuming fair chances, but it's not always like that.

[Demosthenes11]

Good example with the casino. Also of course for people who are camping Argus the likelihood of it not dropping 20000 times in a row is very, very low. :>

off topic

err casino, depends on which. From my professor experience on the probability function for the casino, he told us that the slot machine it self has a some sort of probability software, which if you know the software well, you can estimate/predict when it gonna jackpot or close to it. Well, this one of the reason why most of casino they not allow the casino related worker to play in the casino.

That professor got a friend who work for the slot machine software in Las Vegas, then he went to alantic city to use the info to try on those slot machine there. Well, he did win quite amount of money(millions?). But he is stupid enough that he use his actual name to register for hotel etc, end up they found that he is one of the software programmer for the casino machine, then all his winning money had to return lol

My HS calc teacher does this all the time. He always stays in high roller suites when he goes to reno or vegas and he only plays slott machines. He said he uses something call modular mathematics thats makes it really easy, but it was way over our heads lol. During a typical weekend, he makes about 15K

[Yutuyu]

In no part of that was it mentioned that the coin was not double-headed... People keep presuming fair chances, but it's not always like that.

Except in the situation where the coin IS double-headed, all of statistics, discussion, and thought is completely useless. Which is why people assume the coin has seperate things on each side. Because if it didn't, where's the trial? Where's the experiment?

There is none.

[Yutuyu]

Good example with the casino. Also of course for people who are camping Argus the likelihood of it not dropping 20000 times in a row is very, very low. :>

off topic

err casino, depends on which. From my professor experience on the probability function for the casino, he told us that the slot machine it self has a some sort of probability software, which if you know the software well, you can estimate/predict when it gonna jackpot or close to it. Well, this one of the reason why most of casino they not allow the casino related worker to play in the casino.

That professor got a friend who work for the slot machine software in Las Vegas, then he went to alantic city to use the info to try on those slot machine there. Well, he did win quite amount of money(millions?). But he is stupid enough that he use his actual name to register for hotel etc, end up they found that he is one of the software programmer for the casino machine, then all his winning money had to return lol

My HS calc teacher does this all the time. He always stays in high roller suites when he goes to reno or vegas and he only plays slott machines. He said he uses something call modular mathematics thats makes it really easy, but it was way over our heads lol. During a typical weekend, he makes about 15K

Modular arithmetic is the study of division and watching the remainder. You're actually only interested in the remainder of the calculation.

Say that every 2000th use pays out a jackpot. Then you number the customers that use the slot machine.

The 1st user would get some payout. The 2000th would get the jackpot. So would the 4000th. In general if the number of the user you are is perfectly divisible by 2000, you will win the jackpot (bear in mind that the number > 0).

Thus when...

Number of User mod 2000 is congruent to 0, jackpot occurs. You can probably use modular arithmetic to calculate what the 2000 is, or a range where the jackpot falls in.

[Doc]

In no part of that was it mentioned that the coin was not double-headed... People keep presuming fair chances, but it's not always like that.

Except in the situation where the coin IS double-headed, all of statistics, discussion, and thought is completely useless. Which is why people assume the coin has seperate things on each side. Because if it didn't, where's the trial? Where's the experiment?

There is none.

Right, it's called a "fair coin" technically though I think. Which is the kind of coin that people are referring to (heads and tails side with equal chance for either to flip).

[Yutuyu]

Right, it's called a "fair coin" technically though I think. Which is the kind of coin that people are referring to (heads and tails side with equal chance for either to flip).

By double headed (if you read his post before that) he was refering to having the same image on both sides, not having 2 sides. Any coin has 2 sides, by definition. A coin which has the same image on both sides is not fair, and it's no experiment either, it will always land on the same "image."

[Doc]

Right, it's called a "fair coin" technically though I think. Which is the kind of coin that people are referring to (heads and tails side with equal chance for either to flip).

By double headed (if you read his post before that) he was refering to having the same image on both sides, not having 2 sides. Any coin has 2 sides, by definition. A coin which has the same image on both sides is not fair, and it's no experiment either, it will always land on the same "image."

I should've been more clear but I was agreeing with you. I was referring to the coin that some guy talked about flipping a dozen times or something.

[Yutuyu]

Ah, sorry.

[Septimus]

In no part of that was it mentioned that the coin was not double-headed... People keep presuming fair chances, but it's not always like that.

Except in the situation where the coin IS double-headed, all of statistics, discussion, and thought is completely useless. Which is why people assume the coin has seperate things on each side. Because if it didn't, where's the trial? Where's the experiment?

There is none.

If you play 3-Card Monty one would expect to win 33% of the time, but chances are you won't. Going back to the example of the coin flipped a dozen times, each time coming up heads- you have a 0.00002% chance of seeing that happen. Which is more likely- that it just happens to come up heads 12 times when someone is showing a demonstration of probability with coin flips or someone is giving probability a helping hand? Just because something appears fair doesn't mean that it is.

The experiment is in Psychology, not probability.

[Cadena]

I just want to see people stop arguing and learn the difference between chance and probability. It literally is grade school math.