NFL Week 2 Picks

[Deejay]

San Diego had the same team they do now and still lost to NE in the playoffs. Add in Randy Moss, etc etc etc etc etc and you still have them losing? Wow.

[Tyche]

San Diego had the same team they do now and still lost to NE in the playoffs. Add in Randy Moss, etc etc etc etc etc and you still have them losing? Wow.

Sun, Dec 10 at Miami - L 0-21

Sun, Nov 12, NY Jets - L 14-17

Yet they beat San Diego in the playoffs! You mean to tell me that football is always predictable? You should go to bodog and hit the betting cards. Vegas has chargers +4. They give appx 3 points to the home team. So vegas thinks they are about even, and if you know more than vegas oddsmakers, and feel so strongly about it as you seem from your post, go to vegas and get a gig making spreads. Im sure the money is killer. I simply think the same as vegas, the two teams are about evenly matched, however, I think SD has much better athletes, and want this win much much more than the pats.

[Deejay]

Vegas has the Chargers +4. Holy fucking shit that's barely more than a field goal. All i'm saying is that you're going against history, things that we know, for what? Because some guys in vegas said so? Small vegas spreads mean jack and shit when it comes to predicting games. Period.

I'm not saying New England will win by a landslide, i'm saying it's dumb to bet against them when they've improved way more than SD did this offseason. Tom Brady can produce on the road, LT is coming off perhaps the worst running game of his career, and lolBellicheck didn't get suspended.

It's not even that hard to play in SD, as they've lost like 2 straight playoff home games there. This isn't oakland or seattle or pittsburgh we're talking about. It's pussy ass san diego where dreams are crushed on numerous occasions.

[tyven]

whats with people picking miami over dallas? even if newman sits again, which i hope he does, i still dont see them having much of a chance, yea yea yea suck ass eli put up 35 but that doesnt mean miami can. Trent Green probably cant throw the ball deeper than 20 yards anymore and with ronnie brown splitting carries with chatman behind that terrible offensive line i dont even see their running game being a threat. Dallas will be down their #1 corner Newman (possibly) #2 pass rusher Ellis, and ONLY true nose tackle but i still expect them to win big.

[Deejay]

whats with people picking miami over dallas? even if newman sits again, which i hope he does, i still dont see them having much of a chance, yea yea yea suck ass eli put up 35 but that doesnt mean miami can. Trent Green probably cant throw the ball deeper than 20 yards anymore and with ronnie brown splitting carries with chatman behind that terrible offensive line i dont even see their running game being a threat. Dallas will be down their #1 corner Newman (possibly) #2 pass rusher Ellis, and ONLY true nose tackle but i still expect them to win big.

Our (Giants fan) third RB on the depth chart rushed for 89 yards and 44 recieving plus a touchdown against Dallas. Eli threw for 312 and 3 TD's. He actually had a better game than Peyton did if you look at the stats.

Not saying Miami will do the same, but Ronnie Brown and Trent Green aren't exactly pushovers. Add in the fact that Miami's D is like 10x better than the NYG's.

Despite all that I still think Miami will find a way to lose, only because it's Miami.

[Boyiee]

I called the pats this weekend too, I'm a pats fan so yeah i'm biased... But I've always been an LT fan, and I love watching him play. I've seen him play quite a few times and he's amazing, but after seeing them play this year it just doesn't seem the same. LT and Gates, thats all rivers has, and rivers cracks under pressure. Unless LT has an insane game, the game goes to the pats because they can get the ball to their recievers. And LT wont be having an insane game, he cant do it against chicago and he wont against NE.

[Tyche]

Vegas has the Chargers +4. Holy fucking shit that's barely more than a field goal. All i'm saying is that you're going against history, things that we know, for what? Because some guys in vegas said so? Small vegas spreads mean jack and shit when it comes to predicting games. Period.

I'm not saying New England will win by a landslide, i'm saying it's dumb to bet against them when they've improved way more than SD did this offseason. Tom Brady can produce on the road, LT is coming off perhaps the worst running game of his career, and lolBellicheck didn't get suspended.

It's not even that hard to play in SD, as they've lost like 2 straight playoff home games there. This isn't oakland or seattle or pittsburgh we're talking about. It's pussy ass san diego where dreams are crushed on numerous occasions.

ROFL, you do realize that the chargers are a 4 point UNDERDOG! Not a four point favorite, chargers +4 means the bet is you get the chargers score +4. And they are playing in new england, so I don't really understand what the fuck you are trying to say. For someone who knows so much about oddsmakers predicting games, you sure do not know shit about spreads, or this upcoming game it seems for that matter. At least know where the fuck they are playing before you try a legitimate argument.

http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/2364/patsgj9.jpg

Edit: Heres a graphical representation of line shifts in this game. What this is saying is that the pats opened @ a 3.5 point favorite. It dipped down to a 4 point favorite because about 90% of all bets were coming in on the pats (lines shift when mass bets go onto a single team). Pats bet percentages began to dip so the line went back to 3.5 (which is where it stands now) and the pats are getting about 65% of all the bets. So to be honest, I'm going against vegas. Well, technically, vegas knows how to run lines. Historically, when there such a huge disparity in bet margins, vegas bankrolls from the lesser prevailing. (hence, vegas really thinks the chargers will cover 3.5). There is a reason sportsbooks in casino's exist. They aren't going bankrupt by paying out 65% of their bets.

Editx2. Something interesting I guess I can share. 92% of people are betting on the bengals to cover -6.5. 89% betting colts cover -7. 96% bet the saints to cover -3.5 (vegas makes a killing off the saints because so many people bet with emotions and not brains). 94% bet the cowboys to cover -3. Now I should point out that all these bets are on the favorite, not the underdog. In the past 20 years, Theres only been 1 season in the NFL where if you did nothing all season but pick underdogs to cover, you lost money. Evey other season you profitted by doing nothing but betting on every underdog all season long.

[tyven]

the game will come down to the san diego linebackers and whether or not they are able to generate consistent pressure on tom brady, if merriman and phillips are wreaking havoc in the backfield then brady wont be able to spread the ball and the chargers will have more than a real shot. the patriots dont have an absolute beast like the bears did in Tommy Harris, and adalius thomas and mike vrabel =! urlacher and briggs. i dont expect LT to have a monster game but he should be a little bit more successful running the ball than he was last week. im not trying to say the chargers are a lock to win, but im really not gonna be surprised if they do.

edit: i dont know much about spreads but i BELIEVE the home team is spotted 3 points, which means this could pretty much be a wash if played on a neutral field.

[Shadowstalker]

Gonna go with the chargers winning just because Bill Bellichick can't spy on them.

No, seriously. It's gonna be a hell of a game.

Panthers fan, don't mind me:

I thought David Carr was gonna start by week 5, (when they actually play a good team.) He very well could, but I see the Panthers easily going 4-0 considering they play lolHouston, (the only team I see them losing against,) lolWehadadogkillingQB (atl,) and lolTB and he'll keep his spot.

Of course... It's the panthers, and who fucking knows, I'm sure someone is going to get hurt in the next 3 weeks. *grumble*

[Skyylya]

http://tombradycheats.ytmnd.com/

[Tristam]

The San Diego - NE game could go either way as I see it, this is football not rocket science, and they're both amazing teams with great recent regular season history at least. Would I be surprised if SD won? Not at all, but did I put my money on NE? Yup.

Miami on the other hand is weird. Isn't their defense's average age like 32? I don't see this team pulling off any amazing upsets. True they've played lights out at some really random times the past two years (like vs. NE), but you can't bank on that happening week to week.

[Mizango]

The denver game was a perfect example of how buffalo can play their hearts out and stay in it for the entire game, only to find some way to lose at the end.

LOL, spoken like only a true Buffalo fan knows how. Well done.

LOL, you can almost feel the years of pain on the page with that example. The Bills are always a sentimental favorite of many people.

[Andarvi]

LT will definately have a better game in NE than he did last week (where he still had a pretty decent fantasy week). People underestimate the intensity of his vendetta against the pats. The type of person and player is his, when he feels disrespected, whether you think he was or not, hes going to show his displeasure on the field.

And saying hes not the same LT after one game? he didnt play the preseason and his first game back was against the best defense in the NFL. Yeah he wasnt up to his usual calibur, but its one game, and i assure you he will only get considerably better from a 25 rushing yard outing.

[Deejay]

Vegas has the Chargers +4. Holy fucking shit that's barely more than a field goal. All i'm saying is that you're going against history, things that we know, for what? Because some guys in vegas said so? Small vegas spreads mean jack and shit when it comes to predicting games. Period.

I'm not saying New England will win by a landslide, i'm saying it's dumb to bet against them when they've improved way more than SD did this offseason. Tom Brady can produce on the road, LT is coming off perhaps the worst running game of his career, and lolBellicheck didn't get suspended.

It's not even that hard to play in SD, as they've lost like 2 straight playoff home games there. This isn't oakland or seattle or pittsburgh we're talking about. It's pussy ass san diego where dreams are crushed on numerous occasions.

ROFL, you do realize that the chargers are a 4 point UNDERDOG! Not a four point favorite, chargers +4 means the bet is you get the chargers score +4. And they are playing in new england, so I don't really understand what the fuck you are trying to say. For someone who knows so much about oddsmakers predicting games, you sure do not know shit about spreads, or this upcoming game it seems for that matter. At least know where the fuck they are playing before you try a legitimate argument.

Edit: Heres a graphical representation of line shifts in this game. What this is saying is that the pats opened @ a 3.5 point favorite. It dipped down to a 4 point favorite because about 90% of all bets were coming in on the pats (lines shift when mass bets go onto a single team). Pats bet percentages began to dip so the line went back to 3.5 (which is where it stands now) and the pats are getting about 65% of all the bets. So to be honest, I'm going against vegas. Well, technically, vegas knows how to run lines. Historically, when there such a huge disparity in bet margins, vegas bankrolls from the lesser prevailing. (hence, vegas really thinks the chargers will cover 3.5). There is a reason sportsbooks in casino's exist. They aren't going bankrupt by paying out 65% of their bets.

Editx2. Something interesting I guess I can share. 92% of people are betting on the bengals to cover -6.5. 89% betting colts cover -7. 96% bet the saints to cover -3.5 (vegas makes a killing off the saints because so many people bet with emotions and not brains). 94% bet the cowboys to cover -3. Now I should point out that all these bets are on the favorite, not the underdog. In the past 20 years, Theres only been 1 season in the NFL where if you did nothing all season but pick underdogs to cover, you lost money. Evey other season you profitted by doing nothing but betting on every underdog all season long.

Holy crap lol, my bad. For some reason I thought the game was being played in San Diego. I'm a noob when it comes to point spreads as I still think they don't mean anything when predicting games. Thanks for that little lesson lol.

[Daahan]

The Giants and Packers game is pretty good so far and so is the Colts and Titans.

[XxSlusherxx]

only one earily game in Minnesota

[Akiyama]

Texans playing tough today and might get on the good side of this challenge. Colts are wooping butt, and wow. The Saints really really suck o.O

[Headspace]

Where's that Cincinnati Defense from last week?

Edit: fucking ridiculous

[Akiyama]

I call a fluke on last week. I think Baltimore was just as bad on offense as Cincy supposedly is good on defense. >.> Still.. up 1 on Cleveland? That's bad. TB destroying NO 21-0.. Houston up on Carolina. Some odd games so far.

Edit: Ok.. Cleveland up 27-21. Wtf, lol

[Headspace]

Derek Anderson's getting so much time in the pocket. I hope next half gets more interesting on the defensive side.