Fishing

[nibu]

Yeah the idea that 5% means it takes each and every individual person 20 times to get 1 makes my head hurt.

As does the idea that chances not taken can someone be factored in. How exactly would you factor that in anyways?

And the last one just makes me laugh. Imagine if we only used lotto winners to determine odds...

I'm saying that the THEORETICAL AVERAGE on a 5% drop rate would require someone to turn in 20 fish. Each fish has a 1/20 chance of getting the item. Yes, people will get it with less, and some with more. And yes, I realize that each fish still has a 1/20 chance even after 20+ have been turned in; of course your odds don't go up.

As for the other two remarks: Over time, and given a robust sample size, including data from people who have not yet gotten the drop will not be consequential. See: Lik and Gugru rates on wiki; if you removed all of the fish in those gutted statistics from individuals who never received the items, you won't see much of a % change. However, starting a running tally without ANY confirmed drop rate in the sample is silly. True enough, only focusing on the ONE individual with a confirmed drop (1/2) would be equally extreme and inaccurate, but I'm not advocating that either.

As for the lotto analogy: Each fisher is participating in their own lotto, with fish turned in acting as tickets. We are determining the odds based off of how many fish an individual needs to turn in on average to receive an item. Without that item being received, how are we to know the odds? With enough people, if we were only to account for those who received the item after X amount of trades, that would be the most accurate statistic. When someone else adds their X fish without getting the drop, the statistic will change towards a more accurate figure, but we won't know what that true figure is until they get their drop.

edit: Single case example, but I went 1/1207 on gugru. Thank God I wasn't the first person to get my saber shoot, otherwise people might not want to go after it...

[dasva]

I'm just going to echo byrth and say you really don't understand statistics.

How exactly is keeping a tally before determining a droprate silly when the entire point of keeping a tally? Especailly since it's clear some people (you) will be influenced by perceived droprates into throwing out meaningful data that doesn't fit your expectations. How do you purpose we determine a droprate to begin with if not a running tally?

And not counting people who didn't get any is not inconsequential. The only reason it seems that way is because with larger sample sizes throwing out a few outliers has a smaller effect.

And here is another analogy. You we have a few people pick cards out of a deck then reshuffle trying to get ace of spades. The odds are clearly 1/52 or 1.92%. Let's say we have 52 people doing it 10 times or until they get it. On average we should get 10 ace of spades pulled. Now let's say 10 people pulled all on the first try. Whoops guess we have to throw out them and bam we got 100% way off. If we counted everyone else it would be 2.32% still pretty close

Let's go to the other end of the spectrum and say no one got more than 1 and they all got it on there 10th pull if you throw out all the people that got nothing you come out with 10% odds clearly way off. If we counted the people that got nothing oh look exactly 1/52 odds

[nibu]

Sorry for the idiocy. I'm not sure what I was thinking this morning.

Looks like I need to brush up on my probability and statistics principles.

[dasva]

Anyone been trying to keep fish asleep and noticing duration is weird? Like sleep 2 is lasting 1:10-1:25. sleep 1 is 40-50 sec. Duration on each mob seems slightly different appears to be longest on the one most recently pulled up...

[nibu]

Anyone been trying to keep fish asleep and noticing duration is weird? Like sleep 2 is lasting 1:10-1:25. sleep 1 is 40-50 sec. Duration on each mob seems slightly different appears to be longest on the one most recently pulled up...

Fished up mobs increase in strength at specific intervals (I believe it's 10 minutes). It may have something to do with that, although I only know for a fact that their attack increases based on my experiences with holding the Puffer Pugil from the brigand's chart event. I'm not sure about sleep duration.

If you zone such a mob, their strength is reset once they lose aggro on the zoned player. If you re-enter the area and sleep them again, you could see whether they sleep the full duration again, and if so, that might confirm the issue. Although I realize the zone line in Vunkerl may be really far away from where you're fishing, so this may not be very convenient to test.

[dasva]

Meh doesn't matter now finally got all of them out of the water so just holding them while running an enhancing skill up script to keep me alive lol.

Another question most people I've seen on here and from personal experience have seen about 50/50 on matysa to jellyfish bites. But I saw like 2-3 posts (think you were one of them nibu) here where a couple of people have gotten much better ratios like 75/25 any idea on this? I'd love to know as that would basically increase the fish I get to bite and therefore land by like 50%

Also nibu I saw you said you once got 21 catchs for around 36 line snaps any idea how you got that good? I've always been around 3/4 sometimes a little better.

[nibu]

Hmm, odd. Here are the circumstances I was fishing under in 2010:

100 fishing, all fishing+ gear (not sure if smock or just apron was out at the time), albatross ring, seagull ring, advanced support, moghancement (or moglification, if it was out at the time). I was on the east bridge, closest to where you campaign warp in. I was not holding mobs, and was not even fishing them up; I was just letting them go from my line. Here's where I posted my original findings, but that doesn't add much more. I believe I was fishing up arrowwood log hits, despite my question in this post. I was also fishing during full moon, which, depending on how superstitious you are, may make a difference. I figured better safe than sorry.

Here's a text document I was using to keep track of my progress.

Spoiler: show

Seagull, albatross, adv. support = Message = Full song + 1/2 ( - albatross = message = gugru time (.75 song)

90% Full moon, watersday

25 minutes

Catch: 3
Line: 6

Mob: 3
Jellyfish: 0

Item: 2

------

17 minutes

Catch: 3
Line: 3

Mob: 3
Jellyfish: 2

Item: 1 (lost 1 on accident)


---

15 minutes

Catch: 2
Line: 5

Mob: 3
Jellyfish: 2

Item: 1

---
zone
93%, windsday

14 minutes

Catch: 2
Line: 0

Mob: 7
Jellyfish: 3

Item: 4

---
17 minutes

Catch: 1
Line: 3

Mob: 6
Jellyfish: 2

Item: 4

---

Iceday, 95%

15 minutes

Catch: 4
Line: 3

Mob: 4
Jellyfish: 1

Item: 3

---
16 minutes

Catch: 3
Line: 3

Mob: 4
Jellyfish: 2

Item: 4

---

zone

11 minutes

Catch: 0
Line: 5

Mob: 5
Jellyfish: 2

Item: 0

---
17 minutes

Lightningsday 98%

Catch: 3
Line: 5

Mob: 3
Jellyfish: 1

Item: 4

---
15 minutes

Catch: 0
Line: 2

Mob: 8
Jellyfish: 2

Item: 1

----
5 bait,

Catch: 0
Line: 0

Mob: 2
Jellyfish: 3

Item: 1

When I used the 40 bait I had earlier this week, I had a similar record to yours: 4 caught, 11 line snaps. I wasn't using advanced support, it wasn't during full moon, but I WAS using the -mob/+big fish rings. Unfortunately, I did not keep track of jellyfish bites during this session.

How many mobs did you fish up? I've heard there are 4 fished up mobs in that zone, but someone else also mentioned 5.

Edit: had mooching both times

[dasva]

Hmmm maybe yours was just a small outlier.

Theres 5 now though I could swear there used to be only 4. And yeah i didn't really keep track of specific things back then just how much of my bait went to matsya and since I fished up mobs with composure sneak.... Now I am fishing them up and holding them so I can easily factor out the 5 bait. I still use bait because it takes forever to get them all out. Just finished another run btw

112 bait. Ending up being 53 jelly fish, 2 release because of almost DCing messing things up, 5 monsters and 52 matsya bites. Of those matsya only reeled in 17. Up to 2/3 break rate yay



And another 0/15 for the running gag... I mean tally (yes I'm trying to sell a couple while they still sell)

[Celebrindor]

well I guess one benefit of skilling up fishing to get the cape would be at the end of the day you'd have fishing @110 with an ebisu as well ^^

that's the end of my hijack of your thread :D Either I'm gonna be a great customer of some fishermen on Leviathan, or I'll become one myself.

[Mafai]

1/19

Spoiler: show

http://www.lmxvii.net/mafai/2012.07....08_Selbina.jpg

[dasva]

grats you lucky bastard

[Mafai]

Too bad guildwork doesnt show low lvl items so it can be on my feed

[Taint]

Grats!

[dasva]

So the 2 I put up on the ah right before turning in my last batch yesterday sold pretty quick for 1 mil each. I feel less bad for all the time wasted now lol

[dejet]

I have about 200 CC to turn in. Going to fish up a few more tonight. In the morning I plan to go for the Matsya, whatever I get will be sold on the AH. Target price is going to be 2million.

None are posted as of now if that holds true to the morning I feel I might get that going price(3 sold for 1million today)

If they sell for 2million I plan to aim for 2.5million and keep raising it up. They are going to be a rare fish that most will not bother fishing. If you fish matsya on my server lets price fix this SOB.

going to see how far I can push E-rod fish up too have 8 lik to sell right now holding out till stock is out, think about this; there will be a much higher demand for it if this cape pulls in gil like it seems it might.

[nikia]

Please forgive me if I overlooked any info but wanted to ask advice on skilling fishing to 26~30 so I can start "Inside the Belly" quest.

I know very little in the way of fishing and just spent 8 hours give or take fishing in Port Jeuno with Lugworms and Halcyon Rod. I got roughly 1.6 Skills the whole time and guess also hit the 200 catch cap I read about.

Is there a better way to do the skills just to get to 26?

Any insight or locations, bait, etc would mean the world. As it stands right now I absolutely hate fishing. . .
Thank you folks.

[Buffy]

Just went 0/20 on Matsya I fished up this week. Zaldon doing his Zaldon thing again I see....

[Buffy]

Please forgive me if I overlooked any info but wanted to ask advice on skilling fishing to 26~30 so I can start "Inside the Belly" quest.

I know very little in the way of fishing and just spent 8 hours give or take fishing in Port Jeuno with Lugworms and Halcyon Rod. I got roughly 1.6 Skills the whole time and guess also hit the 200 catch cap I read about.

Is there a better way to do the skills just to get to 26?


Any insight or locations, bait, etc would mean the world. As it stands right now I absolutely hate fishing. . .
Thank you folks.

Nebimonite, shrimp lure, lake in SSG is probably going to do more for you. Everything to hard to fish up will be..........too hard to fish up.

[cdgreg]

I have about 200 CC to turn in. Going to fish up a few more tonight. In the morning I plan to go for the Matsya, whatever I get will be sold on the AH. Target price is going to be 2million.

None are posted as of now if that holds true to the morning I feel I might get that going price(3 sold for 1million today)

If they sell for 2million I plan to aim for 2.5million and keep raising it up. They are going to be a rare fish that most will not bother fishing. If you fish matsya on my server lets price fix this SOB.

going to see how far I can push E-rod fish up too have 8 lik to sell right now holding out till stock is out, think about this; there will be a much higher demand for it if this cape pulls in gil like it seems it might.

I swear you live on a server with no other fishermen. There were atleast 10 fishermen at fountain of kings yesterday, and on Odin the sale market will be flooded if anyone actually sells one for 1m each.

Excuse the quality, I don't play my main character on that laptop or use a web browser, so cell phone pic on 1983 laptop was the best I could do. You get the point I'm sure

[nibu]

I swear you live on a server with no other fishermen. There were atleast 10 fishermen at fountain of kings yesterday, and on Odin the sale market will be flooded if anyone actually sells one for 1m each.

Excuse the quality, I don't play my main character on that laptop or use a web browser, so cell phone pic on 1983 laptop was the best I could do. You get the point I'm sure

Jesus. The most I've seen at the same time on Carbuncle is about 5 (including myself). Usually only around 2 others. And for full moon today, it was just myself for an hour or so.