Fishing

[Byrthnoth]

It's because you're doing slightly unrealistic math on the crafter end. The value of leveling a craft on expensive synths is questionable when SE will eventually add cheaper skill synths and materials are so rare that you won't get a chance to spam the synths that you can Tier 1 but your competition can't, HQ them, and sell them. For instance, leveling 2 levels at 2mil/synth loss may never be made back even with a 100% skillup rate if you can only get 2 synths worth of mats a week.
* 10 weeks : 40mil loss (this is approximately the time between updates)
* Lets say you get lucky and they don't add an easier skillup path that update:
* 10 weeks : 20 synths, 40mil expenses, 2 HQs, some of which you'll be able to sell before...
* Luck runs out this patch and now everyone is Tier 1 on your synth.

In order to break including the enhancement from the cape, you're looking at 40mil (+Cape cost/2) per HQ. Good luck getting people to pay the 40mil for two HQ abjurations that you would need to break even on synth mats, let alone 65 mil to break even including 500k fish for the cape. On top of that, you needed to have 130mil to invest and enough faith in your luck to take the leap on an N of 20 AND that SE wouldn't immediately patch in a more realistic skillup path.

This is the situation that some crafts (like Bone, Smithing, and Gold) face.

[pugnax179]

To add onto Scrynth's post, personally just went 1/4 on cape so our group is 3/26 on capes atm

time to use the cape to get all crafts to 70 and then figure out which to bring to 100(110)

[dejet]

It's because you're doing slightly unrealistic math on the crafter end. The value of leveling a craft on expensive synths is questionable when SE will eventually add cheaper skill synths and materials are so rare that you won't get a chance to spam the synths that you can Tier 1 but your competition can't, HQ them, and sell them. For instance, leveling 2 levels at 2mil/synth loss may never be made back even with a 100% skillup rate if you can only get 2 synths worth of mats a week.
* 10 weeks : 40mil loss (this is approximately the time between updates)
* Lets say you get lucky and they don't add an easier skillup path that update:
* 10 weeks : 20 synths, 40mil expenses, 2 HQs, some of which you'll be able to sell before...
* Luck runs out this patch and now everyone is Tier 1 on your synth.

In order to break including the enhancement from the cape, you're looking at 40mil (+Cape cost/2) per HQ. Good luck getting people to pay the 40mil for two HQ abjurations that you would need to break even on synth mats, let alone 65 mil to break even including 500k fish for the cape. On top of that, you needed to have 130mil to invest and enough faith in your luck to take the leap on an N of 20 AND that SE wouldn't immediately patch in a more realistic skillup path.

This is the situation that some crafts (like Bone, Smithing, and Gold) face.

SE might add more but its still going to be running you 40~100mil even once more come out.Outside it being some crazy easy item to farm for every craft the price is still going to be worth it.

getting to 100 was never cheap, getting to 110 is even more gil. To say they are going to add something to the game that makes it magically so much cheaper is a lie to yourself and others.

the cost of getting from 0~110 is still going to be in the hundreds of millions for some crafts. and the price of 100~110 will always be crazy for some crafts.

you may be right that this wont be worth it for cooking and a few other crafts but for the most part it will pay for itself.

[Byrthnoth]

SE might add more but its still going to be running you 40~100mil even once more come out.Outside it being some crazy easy item to farm for every craft the price is still going to be worth it.

getting to 100 was never cheap, getting to 110 is even more gil. To say they are going to add something to the game that makes it magically so much cheaper is a lie to yourself and others.

the cost of getting from 0~110 is still going to be in the hundreds of millions for some crafts. and the price of 100~110 will always be crazy for some crafts.

That's what I thought about Alchemy, so I ground away and leveled from 102 to 110 on Ethereal Squama synths. Right after I hit 106, they added Malison Medallions to the game (106 cap, costs about 40k per synth on my server). They also added Killer's Kilijs to the game (110 cap, costs about 6-800k depending on Scintillant Ingot prices). All it takes is 1 reasonable synth to make skilling up trivial for any craft.

About every other patch they've added new synths and armor sets (hi Dux) and such that make leveling crafts cheaper. Pretending 100-110 is going to be some tremendous grind for the rest of the game's lifetime is deluding yourself more than assuming you only have a few patches before they make your hard-won skill points easy to get. I'm just hoping I break even on my expenditure before they add the killer skillup synth for Alchemy that lets people break tier on Gages and Doublet -1s.

[dasva]

See but it is more realistic to assume current values then to assume some magical cure all aid later on. And at the same time not increase the cap with even more crazier stuff.

Also notice somethings like Dux mail which does indeed help you skillup a little better but when it came out was around 500k synth. Which if you assume the 1/4 skill up rate is 20mil a lvl while lets say 1/2 for with cape as ever screenshot I've seen is decently over that it would've saved you 10 per lvl. And that's with the newer cheaper synth. Of course now with my server spamming Hahava for reasons I still don't understand the synth is only about half that hell befouled ingots are npc'd half the time now but that's still like 4 mil saved per lvl.

It also only goes to lvl 107 which if you want to go on the logic of what SE might do spree imply that SE thought that was good enough for bonecrafters and just leave getting to 110 the same despite the fact that it is the hardest next to gold to obtain items for. Or the fact that goldsmithing before those updates was by far the worst in cost and availability and they did nothing.

Hell even your alchemy which by far got the best out of that deal is still hurting. 600k a synth for 4 lvls is still 96mil at a 1/4 skillup rate. And then theres your own admission that spending some extra gil now and getting there first has some benefits. But yes I suppose if you want to take the lets wait for SE to fix this vs getting the cape and grinding instead of grinding with cape vs w/o then it would be slightly different numbers.

[Byrthnoth]

Well, 106 -> 107 is Hexed Coifs for Alchemy, and you can be Tier 1 (1mil/synth loss, ~20mil/HQ profit)
107->108 is Hexed Gages, and you can Tier 1 (1mil/synth loss, ~20mil/HQ profit)
108->109 is a Tier 0 grind, so this is where you'd save some gil
109->110 is Hexed Doublet, and you can Tier 1 (1mil/synth loss, ~30mil/HQ profit)

So for Alchemy you end up profit synthing your way through 106->110. There's little incentive to speed it up because you're already being approximately optimally efficient with your materials. You can make higher tier synths slightly faster if you skill up faster and maybe get better variety to sell, but if you have the bank roll then you don't need to and a 110 synther is no more profitable than a 107 synther if they're both making Hexed Gages. Shaper's Shall would never pay itself off with only 1 level of loss.

[dasva]

Are those actually selling all that well? And what about all the crafts that aren't that lucky? Also that 1 lvl grind is still a 40mil investment and considering how low the price of fish has gone...

[Byrthnoth]

Saving 20mil would justify 200k/fish.

I leveled to 110 on mostly Tier 1 synths and only have 3 unsold HQs in my bazaar. When they sell, I'm going to approximately be breaking even for the whole venture even without server transferring my NQs and dumping them.

[dasva]

Assuming a 1% turn in rate. But judging by posts it should be higher than that. I mean we've seen plenty of people get it under 20 and only like 1 or 2 go over 50?
What about crafts that can't t1 skillup? Or ones that have trash hexed gear? What if your HQs don't sell or drop in price a bit due to it being easier to skillup now? What if SE got tired of little fixes here and there for individual crafts and shawl was their fix to the difficulty of lvling up?

[dasva]

And regardless of the what ifs of long term and possibly future updates and such selling them for less than 400-500k right now will definitely be a loss for fishers unless they somehow gimp haks while you are fishing

[Byrthnoth]

Well . . .

Assuming a 1% turn in rate. But judging by posts it should be higher than that. I mean we've seen plenty of people get it under 20 and only like 1 or 2 go over 50? - It might be 2%, but it's not 5%.

What about crafts that can't t1 skillup? - They're fucked, generally because they also can't get ingredients for the few synths that make it worth going over 100.
Or ones that have trash hexed gear? - Why would they level to 110 if their hexed gear is shit? Also, even if the stats suck people will still pay for a white box.
What if your HQs don't sell or drop in price a bit due to it being easier to skillup now? - If they don't sell, why did I level Alchemy to 110? 20mil for a 1mil/ingredients synth isn't ahmahgahd T0 profit, it's 2006 Tier 1 profit. I make about 50% profit in exchange for risking the shirt on my back. This is a similar profit margin to Heca Mittens/Leggings at the 75 cap before Angel Skin became common, and that was without a monopoly.
What if SE got tired of little fixes here and there for individual crafts and shawl was their fix to the difficulty of lvling up? - This could be, but it seems unlikely. SE is big on the whole "one hand doesn't know what the other is doing" thing.

As far as Haks, you guys have to sense that a nerf is coming at some point. Haks and Blinkers are both going to die in some patch and SE will act like they never knew about them. The only question is whether they'll accompany it with bans.

[dejet]

why would they ban people for NPCing? lol this is not like you bought them then sold them back to a NPC at a higher price

its SE's NPC price.
I wont be wasting my time on fishing this for others after I get mine

1mil is my breaking point on this fish I wont budge unless someone was to come to me and say ill buy 50 at 700k and even then I might say no lol

[Byrthnoth]

Ask the gardeners?

[dasva]

Some people lvl just for fun. Or for the later recipes that are decent or for the non torque craft to get to a lvl to t1 something decent. Shawl will definitely alot. And they might nerf it but until they do it this is worst if you sell for under 500k. But for the here and now potential future nerf has 0 bearing on how much money you would be fishing up hak's.

I don't really see a nerf coming though. If they nerf every npcable you can buy with cruor then I'll get worried. But I don't see them going after people making 100k/hr after they went thru all the trouble of lvling fishing and making ebisu before they go after 2 day old lvl 30 mules making 400k/hr

[Michelob]

It might be 2%, but it's not 5%.

I don't know, I'd be leaning more towards 5% than 2%. Our group doing Matsyas has seen rates of 1/9, 1/30, and 1/4 so far (seeing those 3 in a span of 26 trades). Even with a 5% drop rate, going 1/100 is fully possible, just not likely. Going to be doing a lot more and keeping track so we shall see, I guess.

[Julian]

Just to kinda +1 on to what some people have said.

New synths will make skilling up easier/cheaper, there's no denying that. But also keep in mind that we could see a skill increase to 120/80 soon, maybe, and possibly even higher, so the cape is still a good investment assuming that ever happens, which it probably will, at least I think.

I personally don't really care how much they cost. I'm just fishing to get me a cape, and maybe one for my mules. If I were able to sell them for 700k~1mil each, cool, if not, also cool, just means I wont have to go through the trouble of Matsya fishing again.

[Rooney]

1mil is my breaking point on this fish I wont budge unless someone was to come to me and say ill buy 50 at 700k and even then I might say no lol

I think you've missed the point. Most crafters are not willing to pay that price per fish. Yeah, they'd probably save that much going 100-110, but that doesn't change the fact that they're not willing to pay that much.

If your fish are not selling, get yourself a cape and go back to haks.

(I'm all for making a profit however you can, but if the fish aren't selling, the fish aren't selling)

[Michelob]

I think you've missed the point. Most crafters are not willing to pay that price per fish. Yeah, they'd probably save that much going 100-110, but that doesn't change the fact that they're not willing to pay that much.

If your fish are not selling, get yourself a cape and go back to haks.

(I'm all for making a profit however you can, but if the fish aren't selling, the fish aren't selling)

Matsyas started off at 500k on Phoenix and have since risen to 700k and sell pretty fast.

[Kembot]

I'm being punished for going 2/51 on my Ebisu Rod (Opal Silk 1/11 Saber Shoot 1/40)

0/99 on Shaper's Shawl so far...

I've fished up ~85 and bought the rest @300-500k each.

[dejet]

I think you've missed the point. Most crafters are not willing to pay that price per fish. Yeah, they'd probably save that much going 100-110, but that doesn't change the fact that they're not willing to pay that much.

If your fish are not selling, get yourself a cape and go back to haks.

(I'm all for making a profit however you can, but if the fish aren't selling, the fish aren't selling)

Trust me I am with you, I have said I wont be fishing them unless they sell at 1mil a pop. the time and effort that goes into fishing them is just not worth it in my book unless I get that crazy good price.

I plan to get myself one and thats it. I dont have any craft to 100 yet(outside fishing) so it will be worth it for me to get. most of my sub crafts are at 60 still(from way back) so thats a lot of work to be done on my part.