Fishing

[Taint]

0/15 total now

[Forewarned]

1/8 on shaper's

[Byrthnoth]

Summing this thread (oh whatever, all the reports. Bias be damned, so this estimation is probably going to be high), we're 15/1138 (1.3%, 0.7% to 2.1%) so far.

Spoiler: show

Nibu - 0/24
Taint - 0/15
Kord - 0/2
dasva - 1/54
Yeager - 0/1
Luis - 0/55
Kari - 1/9
cdgreg - 1/40
coder - 1/17
coder's friend 1 - 1/3
coder's friend 2 - 0/12
Mafai - 1/19
Buffy - 0/62
Renzy - 1/75
dejet - 0/14
Diomer - 1/47
Diomer's mule - 0/41
Diomer's friend - 0/34
Scrynth - 1/9
Ganukay - 1/80
Dirac - 1/1 (wouldn't have been reported if 0/1, but it's included anyway)
Kembot - 0/176
Julian - 0/25
Scrynth's friend - 1/23
pugnax - 1/4
Byrth - 0/63
Michelob - 1/30
sluggo - 0/9
Forewarned - 1/8
errantfish - 0/55
Damane - 0/30
Reg - 0/7
Renzy's Alt - 0/45
Funkz - 0/40

Updated down to here: http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/493...=1#post5350160

[Michelob]

Since I saw you listed unconfirmed data from Coder's rates, I went and asked him myself (I know him from my days on Midgardsormr). He said from the Matsya's he has fished up for himself and friends so far, 1/17(his personal shawl), 1/3, and 0/12.

Not including these?

[cdgreg]

My friend's name is Dirac if you would like to make it more official looking. For the record I will report any lsmate success whether it be 1/1 or 1/900

[errantfish]

0/55 here so far for what it's worth.

[Diomer]

1/47 in total:

Spoiler: show

http://www.gwcdn.com/albums/images/5...4fd4000a74.jpg

0/41 on my main character after that.

[dasva]

Edit nvm

[Kari]

Turned in some more.
My previous count was 0/1.
I'm now 1/9. ^^

[Buffy]

Turned in some more.
My previous count was 0/1.
I'm now 1/9. ^^

I mean this in the kindest possible way.

<^> you.

[Kembot]

1/47 in total:

0/41 on my main character after that.

I hate you!

Also, update on my progress:

0/153

[cdgreg]

I hate you!

Also, update on my progress:

0/153

That's ridiculous. Also 1/12 on skill up since getting the cape. At nearly 1m a synth with little to no chance of selling the NQ...Yafuckinghoo

[dejet]

When I get time I really want to work on a bell curve for this cape. Something just does not seem right. 50% of the group(15) have got the cape way under 100.

we are talking

14/418= 3.3%(take away the 1/1 and 0/x as with any bell curve) if it was a 1% rate we would expect to see under .25% for the rest of the group. Numbers just are not adding up as of now. the sample is to small and to many people are going to give up at 0/9 and 0/30 and what not.
I no im the dick who said you can not throw a state away ~_~(hell im throwing away the 1/1 I fought for and it break the cruve) but I forgot that average is not everything we cant use the 0/x and 1/1s as it messes with the curve.

this is an equation and thus has to fall into some equal curve, by the look of it it be closer to 3% then the 1% we are thinking. forcing it into a curve should bring us close to the real answer as this is not random and based off something. Unless SE is throwing random numbers into it that is and its not like everything else that throws a number out of x.

[Byrthnoth]

Or maybe people report when they go 1/9 but don't report if they go 0/9. You'll note that Kari updated their total when they got the cape, not when they turned in their 8th fish. How many others out there have turned in a few dozen fish and not bothered reporting back? I think you could probably do something with the distribution of reports, but it wouldn't likely push it up. The odds of going 0/153 on a 3% drop is 1%. The odds of going 0/153 on a 1% drop is 21%.

I'm still sticking with 1-2%, closer or further from 1% depending how pessimistic I'm feeling at the moment.

[dejet]

Will find out as more numbers drop in but the curve should not lie as it is an equation; chopping off the 0s and 1s should give us a closer value. When I get around to making it ill post it.

and we will also have more numbers to play with too; at the time work is owning me ~_~;

I do understand that we do not have all the numbers(and we wont ever); so really me and you could fight on this back and forth forever; lets post findings and just leave it at that lol

the only reason a fight would change would be if the values posted where closer to 1~2%(and 2% is not out of the realm once the numbers are crunched, 1% seems unlikely tho)

edit: is the 1/2 a curve breaker as well?

[Michelob]

The odds of going 0/153 on a 3% drop is 1%. The odds of going 0/153 on a 1% drop is 21%.

And yet no one else has reported a personal rate of worse than 1/80. If the shawl is truly a 1% drop rate I think we would be seeing a lot more people with much worse rates.

[Buffy]

0/62 now after tonight's fish.

I have five crafts 100+....

Zaldon gonna need lube when he gets done with me.

I'm really frustrated.

[Byrthnoth]

And yet no one else has reported a personal rate of worse than 1/80. If the shawl is truly a 1% drop rate I think we would be seeing a lot more people with much worse rates.

Except for this guy:

I hate you!

Also, update on my progress:

0/153

and this guy:

1/47 in total:

Spoiler: show

http://www.gwcdn.com/albums/images/5...4fd4000a74.jpg

0/41 on my main character after that.
1/88 total

[dasva]

I'm pretty sure his no one else meant no one but the first guy. He does sorta have a point though. You'd think we'd have more people that would take more than that. But with people giving up or not there yet we don't really know if they would have so meh.

[Michelob]

I had Okiro down for 1/47 and 0/41, not 1/88, and yeah my use of the word "else" implied after the 0/153 that was being referred to in the quote. With a 21% chance of going 0/153, you'd think we would be seeing that more often.