Almighty Apkallu: Found, and then lost again.

[TacoTaru]

On my 2nd boat ride now, still nothing

I'm also Thf/Blm so if it pops I'm gonna have to put up spikes and lulz it to death.

[fantasticdan]

It had not popped on Alexander when I was riding. I checked memory programs. :/

Did no one else ride after maint on any other server?

You check for the missing apkallu (#7 or w/e)?

[Treacherous]

Yeah.

06 Apkallu (One that never pops)
07 Apkallu (Pops, and popped)
16 AlmightyApkallu

#6, or #7 if you prefer not counting from 0, has not popped.

[Pergo]

koga, i'm pretty sure i posted somewhere in the original thread that i've tried curing the apkallu, it's been tested =p

and about the lucky egg/4leaf bud w/e stuff, at the festival, SE said that luck isn't an actual stat in the game lol

[Airenn]

It had not popped on Alexander when I was riding. I checked memory programs. :/

Did no one else ride after maint on any other server?

You check for the missing apkallu (#7 or w/e)?

Nothing but the crabs, pugil and kraken, as I said.

So far, the APkallu8 has popped, I think, still no AA, so 6/7 (same one) stillno pop.

[TacoTaru]

Trip 5 or 6, I lost count and still no bird. Last two trips have popped on Apkallu on each. Only one who's been riding the boat on Ragnarok.

*Edit*
Quick edit about the killing all enemies as they pop theory; I've been doing that and have only seen the two that I just mentioned pop, and they were the first to pop on each trip. As much as I wish it was a lead, I don't think it is. Third wind weather as of now and I can't kill the elementals I don' think so I haven' bothered. Neither apkallu popped in weather either.

*Edit2*
Almost three hours in and I gotta leave, but I noticed my hate was not reseting anymore when the boat docked. The last time I rode I killed about 5-6 before and I engaged and it immediately used frigid shuffle. Another popped right at the end but we docked before it could use any TP moves.

[ozz]

about thunder weather-- boat ride i was just on was thunder, but no elemental popped

[Lyriane]

Well, granted this is becoming painfully obvious as time goes on and the only pops are those which nobody has seen. But I just reread SE's little open letter again and focused on the FIRST answer instead of the other two, as I had on each previous time. This jumped out at me:

We believe the reason that none have ever encountered him before is that while many adventurers ride the ferry to Nashmau, most either warp back to their Home Points on the mainland, or return to Al Zahbi via the Alzadaal Undersea Ruins.

When I actually take that and think about it logically, and by logically I mean actual formal logic this says "Not B implies Not A".

(!B -> !A) == (A -> B)

Now, the great thing about logic is that it is not open to interpretation. Given that Not B implies Not A, it is logically equivalent to say that A implies B. By saying the former, SE has literally said:

If people use the boat more, you will see AA.

Now I'm not claiming that SE is not mistaken about him working, and I'm not ruling out special conditions of timing. It's possible their testing consisted of some magic debug command that forces him to the top of the "pop queue" whereas on every REAL server he's waiting behind Apkallu #7, which is broken and never pops because oopslol we didn't ask them to test that one, just the NM. It's also possible that he is on some bizarre calendar-related pop timer. It's even still possible that there's some requirement like "X consecutive rides have people on them" or "more than X people on the boat" going JUST by this statement.

However, this does effectively rule out all pop methods which require player action OR inaction. Coupled with the evidence of pops shortly after maintenance, which helps rule out those last two conditions, this strongly indicates a simple timed pop.

At least, that's how I read it.

[Spekkio]

Well, granted this is becoming painfully obvious as time goes on and the only pops are those which nobody has seen. But I just reread SE's little open letter again and focused on the FIRST answer instead of the other two, as I had on each previous time. This jumped out at me:

We believe the reason that none have ever encountered him before is that while many adventurers ride the ferry to Nashmau, most either warp back to their Home Points on the mainland, or return to Al Zahbi via the Alzadaal Undersea Ruins.

When I actually take that and think about it logically, and by logically I mean actual formal logic this says "Not B implies Not A".

(!B -> !A) == (A -> B)

Now, the great thing about logic is that it is not open to interpretation. Given that Not B implies Not A, it is logically equivalent to say that A implies B. By saying the former, SE has literally said:

If people use the boat more, you will see AA.

Now I'm not claiming that SE is not mistaken about him working, and I'm not ruling out special conditions of timing. It's possible their testing consisted of some magic debug command that forces him to the top of the "pop queue" whereas on every REAL server he's waiting behind Apkallu #7, which is broken and never pops because oopslol we didn't ask them to test that one, just the NM. It's also possible that he is on some bizarre calendar-related pop timer. It's even still possible that there's some requirement like "X consecutive rides have people on them" or "more than X people on the boat" going JUST by this statement.

However, this does effectively rule out all pop methods which require player action OR inaction. Coupled with the evidence of pops shortly after maintenance, which helps rule out those last two conditions, this strongly indicates a simple timed pop.

At least, that's how I read it.

unfortunately your logic to rule out a pop fails because riding the boat may merely be one of several necessary conditions to spawn the NM. only McDonalds has a big mac. let us assume the statement is changed to read, "we believe the reason that nobody has eaten a big mac is because while everyone eats, few customers eat at McDonalds." if i chose to eat at McDonalds, i could select the big mac or the chicken sandwich. merely eating at McDonalds is not sufficient to imply that a big mac will follow. can anyone tell i'm hungry as i write this? ^^

[Jeryhn]

brb sirloin burger

Fuck McDonalds.

[Thevaultdweller]

unfortunately your logic to rule out a pop fails because riding the boat may merely be one of several necessary conditions to spawn the NM. only McDonalds has a big mac. let us assume the statement is changed to read, "we believe the reason that nobody has eaten a big mac is because while everyone eats, few customers eat at McDonalds." if i chose to eat at McDonalds, i could select the big mac or the chicken sandwich. merely eating at McDonalds is not sufficient to imply that a big mac will follow. can anyone tell i'm hungry as i write this? ^^

People eat at McDonalds?

[/derail]

[Khamsin]

By the way, this is the other spot in memory I was referring to. This doesn't show HP or mob name or any other information, but is just a condensed list of mob IDs. If it's popped, its there. If it hasn't, it's blank (00's).

http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g2...ro/aastep8.gif

Note the red cells are the mob IDs that are present, and the blue ones are blank. As you can see in this screenshot, no mob before Apkallu #8 has popped (all the fished up mobs plus Apkallu #7), and neither has Almighty Apkallu (the last blue cell in the list).

[Psion]

wait... perhaps his spawn condition is that enough people have to ride the boat? at least, when i read SEs statement thats how i saw it. by either enough people riding the boat at once, or by a few people riding the boat every time, with no boats going empty, AA wont be lonely and will come to play? perhaps you can get some freinds to test it with you and ride the boat constantly heh. let us solve this mystery! :bagel: (man these smilies are fun)

[Napukin]

with no boats going empty

Dozens of us have ridden the boat and warped to Nashmau to get on the next. This cannot be the case. It has to be a wonky timed spawn with a crazy window.

[Pergo]

A friend of mine claimed that it jumped onto the ship and walked around for about twenty seconds before jumping back into the sea. He said it happened about five or so days ago, right after the boat had taken off. He ran up to the deck and charmed/uncharmed a kraken and then saw it. He didn't attack it because he heard figured it would have killed him. He said it was the size of a small hume.

If this is true then it's probably a timed spawn and despawn resets the timer. Something like 72 hours after 'death'.

this may come out wrong, but i'm going to go out on a limb here and completely believe you. if this is the case, that means it requires no action performed on the boat and quite possibly no action done by him...

can you or your friend answer a few questions like :

-was he camping it?
-did he recently kill any apkallu?
-was he only one on the boat
-lolmoonphase
-ect.

any help is very much appriciated :D

[TacoTaru]

It doesn't seem possible to start off with high hate moves and insane defense for the apkallu on the boat, no matter what you did in Zhayolm a minute earlier.

I just noticed this in the debunked theories and while Zhayolm/A. Reef doesn't effect your hate, it IS possible to start the boat ride with high levels of hate. As I noted yesterday, on my last boat right I engaged an Apkallu and it used Frigid Shuffle right off the bat. I'm not sure if this was saying only from Zhayolm is this true or you can never start the boat right with hate, but I did not spam any magic or JAs on it, I engaged hit it a few times, it hit me then frigid shuffled.

[Khamsin]

It doesn't seem possible to start off with high hate moves and insane defense for the apkallu on the boat, no matter what you did in Zhayolm a minute earlier.

I just noticed this in the debunked theories and while Zhayolm/A. Reef doesn't effect your hate, it IS possible to start the boat ride with high levels of hate. As I noted yesterday, on my last boat right I engaged an Apkallu and it used Frigid Shuffle right off the bat. I'm not sure if this was saying only from Zhayolm is this true or you can never start the boat right with hate, but I did not spam any magic or JAs on it, I engaged hit it a few times, it hit me then frigid shuffled.

What did you do before the boat ride? I know people have posted before saying they've attained max hate in Zhayolm, only to warp to Nashmau and board the boat and find the Apkallu on board back to using Yawn with normal defense.

[Pergo]

zhayolm/arrapago > boat within 10min didn't show any kind of hate difference.

on the rides where i've killed every apkallu, 90% of the time they use yawn and yawn only.
there have been a few rides where apkallu used fridgid shuffle, but then you'd get one on the next ride and it would be back to yawn... i'm not sure if this is something special or maybe one sometimes gets a little more pissed off than normal.

[Yaggi]

Have you tried attaining maximum Apkallu hate by killing just the birds that spawn on the boat? I rode the boat about 6 times last night, and after a few kills they started to use some other move besides yawn, i forget what it's called, it wasn't frigid shuffle. maybe once you attain maximum hate on the boat, almighty will come out and spawn. This would take a while of riding the boat, and i don't know how quickly hate is lost, but it seems like a feasable idea if it hasn't been tested multiple times in the past. I'm gonna try to do this everynight to see if i can build maximum apkallu hate on that boat. Maybe you can kill apkallus both ways for the hate, but the NM will only spawn coming back from nashmau. There are still ideas that haven't been explored, lets make sure we get the easy ones that are right in front of our faces out of the way, before we conjure up more crazy ideas about how this guy spawns. Goin to work, will try to spawn him again tonight after dynamis. Good luck everyone.
--Yaggi, Lakshmi

[Lyriane]

unfortunately your logic to rule out a pop fails because riding the boat may merely be one of several necessary conditions to spawn the NM. only McDonalds has a big mac. let us assume the statement is changed to read, "we believe the reason that nobody has eaten a big mac is because while everyone eats, few customers eat at McDonalds." if i chose to eat at McDonalds, i could select the big mac or the chicken sandwich. merely eating at McDonalds is not sufficient to imply that a big mac will follow. can anyone tell i'm hungry as i write this? ^^

Okay, granted there is a distinction between necessary and sufficient conditions. However, before we get to that your analogy is somewhat flawed and doesn't match up in this respect with what SE said. Eating a big mac is a voluntary action that can fail even if all the prerequisites are met. You can order one, take it to a table, unwrap it, and still not eat it. Going to McDonalds and not getting a big mac in your statement is only equivalent to something like... AA being up and you decide not to kill him. I don't know, but it's not close enough for the same logic to apply. Whether or not a big mac is available to be ordered would be closer. "We believe the reason the clerk looks lost when you asked for a big mac is that you are in Gamestop and not McDonalds." Go to mcdonalds and ask clerk for big mac, and that particular problem is solved.

So, necessary v. sufficient. In this logical relationship (contrapositive), there IS actually an implication of sufficiency, if there is an implication of sufficiency in the antecedent. So, is there?

A non-implicative statement from SE would read: "You haven't seen AA, and you're not riding the boat." This merely states facts, and this makes no connection whatsoever.

A statement that implies necessity but not sufficiency would read: "You cannot see AA without first riding the boat." If this is all you read into the first statement then yes, it's not sufficient. However, I submitted in my first post that the first answer contains more information than this.

A statement that implies sufficiency would read: "You have not seen AA, therefore you must not be riding the boat (enough)." They know you're not riding the boat because you haven't seen him. The fact that you haven't seen him is sufficient to say you are not riding the boat (enough). Therefore, the contrapositive is also sufficient.

In fact, several people ARE riding the boat quite a lot, so SE telling us that we're not wouldn't make any sense. They must think we're not riding (enough to see him) because we haven't seen him.

That's what I noticed, and was trying to say. Given that, the original statement holds. SE's statement technically says that nothing besides being there has any bearing on popping AA, and if that's not the case then they literally lied to us. XD