
Originally Posted by
SwampdonkeyPLD
The Fairtax isn't perfect, but don't you think it's at least better than what we have now?
I'm also going skiing this weekend so I'll be back to bump the thread on Sunday, assuming you respond to this.
I'll spend a little time responding, I wasn't planning on it because its kind of a busy day at work. But no, I don't think its better than what we have now.
You seem to pick out keywords and respond based on the talking points. I was trying to address why I don't think it will result in lower prices and you responded with what the literature says about how the 'embedded costs' will disappear and will result in lower prices. I was directly responding to their supposed arguments and you go back to repeat them. On top of that I invited you to provide more evidence to convince me because I feel their assumptions and expectations are unrealistic, especially in light of looking at annual GDP growth from the 90's to today, an unprecedented period of growth for the united states. Hell, I looked them up myself:
Code:
Year GDP in billions of current dollars GDP in billions of chained 2000 dollars % Growth
1990 5,803.1 7,112.5 1.88%
1991 5,995.9 7,100.5 -0.17%
1992 6,337.7 7,336.6 3.33%
1993 6,657.4 7,532.7 2.67%
1994 7,072.2 7,835.5 4.02%
1995 7,397.7 8,031.7 2.50%
1996 7,816.9 8,328.9 3.70%
1997 8,304.3 8,703.5 4.50%
1998 8,747.0 9,066.9 4.18%
1999 9,268.4 9,470.3 4.45%
2000 9,817.0 9,817.0 3.66%
2001 10,128.0 9,890.7 0.75%
2002 10,469.6 10,048.8 1.60%
2003 10,960.8 10,301.0 2.51%
2004 11,685.9 10,675.8 3.64%
2005 12,433.9 11,003.4 3.07%
2006 13,194.7 11,319.4 2.87%
Does 10% annual growth seem likely to happen? 1.13 trillion dollars in 2007? 1.24 trillion in 2008? When the highest growth in the history of the united states is 400 billion in one year (i am using GDP in year 2000 dollars)? I don't blame them though, it was how they got their numbers to 'work'; to sell their snake oil. Especially in light of the oncoming economic troubles, the fairtax will result in an underfunded federal government.
Source BEA: http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm or directly to stats released: http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls
You keep saying 'many economists' but as I pointed out, it is a minority of economists. The number doesn't matter, they are far in the minority and pretty far away from the general consensus. Of course the minority opinion could be right, and the fact its a minority opinion isn't the basis for my stance, but based on what I know, it doesn't seem right to me. And other economists I respect don't think so either. Take all astronomers and I'm sure you will find a group among them that believe Aliens have been visiting us regularly and that the government is covering it up (lolguartz). Does the fact that 'many astronomers' believe this make it inherently credible because it is within their field of expertise? As aurik mentioned: Where is the money going to come from if the rich only get taxed on what they spend rather than what they earned (a smaller amount)? I'm not even touching on cap gains. Currently untaxed income due to tax evaders and blackmarket transactions is unlikely to make up the shortfall. There will also be new ways to evade paying taxes, and its anyone's best guess as to which one is worse.
Here is a 5 minute scenario (watch out, its more complex now
). I discover a new widget and get a patent in the United States. I could:
A) Create the company in the United States and manufacture widgets and sell them here, with the retail tax (at a supposedly lower cost than without the FairTax).
B) Create the company in China, and sell them there, then repatriate the money to the United States, with (yay) no cap gains. If the widgets are success, I could always either create a US company to tap that market, or sell the Chinese widgets in the US and pay the retail tax, with no greater risk or cost than if I had started in the US to begin with.
Of course, there are international tariffs and maybe the corporate climate in China is not the best for the manufacture and selling of widgets, but you can see that you are not creating an incentive to keep this business in the United States. This is in regards to investment. In regards to spending, why wouldn't you spend your ('higher') wages in say, Canada, which doesn't have a hefty retail tax. You buy an American product in Canada. Will the prices be artificially inflated in Canada to make prices comparable to the tax paid in the US? I don't think so. No company will make their product less competitive in other countries to match prices in the U.S. All thanks to the 'embedded tax savings', they are more competitive abroad but have less of an incentive to drive sales in the U.S. Does this all sound a little ridiculous? This is why I don't think the cost to bring products to market will magically drop the same percentage as the retail tax. If it does, people will buy it elsewhere.
Deleted my point about unbalanced tax burden because aurik already said it pretty clearly.