
Originally Posted by
Shamaya
For example, I've been HQ'ing brigandines for profit on and off for about 6 months now. I've probably gotten maybe, mmm, 20 HQ's in that time. I've gotten 3 HQ's in a row once. I've gotten 2 HQ's in a row 4-5 times, at least (this trend also occurs when I'm profit-HQ'ing other synths). I may have simply experienced odd chance in doing so. But the probability of it happening, assuming the system was quite random, is low. The chance of me HQ'ing 3 brigs in a row, assuming my HQ rate at tier1 was 10%, should be 1/1000, no? (.1^3, aka 1/10 * 1/10 * 1/10), and 1/100 for HQ'ing 2 in a row. I wouldn't be stretching things if I said I've HQ'ed about 20 brigandinss in 200 synths. Given the number of synths that I've done, it'd seem that either (1)I've just gotten 'lucky', since my probability of landing those multiple HQ's in a row so many times was quite improbable, or (2)there are elements in the game that make it such that the system is not quite as random as it could be (I would say completely random, but due to determinism and technical limitations, computers can't be "completely" random). It's not just synthing really. I've experienced odd chance like this in other instances in the game. It seems like a lot of people that play (that I know of, at least) have these odd experiences of chance at a rate that would seem to exceed probability, fairly often.