Super Tuesday (and the other primaries)

[finale23]

As someone from Cuyahoga County who voted and is familiar with pretty much all of NE ohio, I think it was a dream for Obama to think he could carry Ohio.

Obama got little high profile support from Ohio politcians. (lol@Frank Jackson endorsing Obama. Considering how much of a failure mayor he is, an endorsement from him is like a death kiss)

Not to mention the blatant racism that is deep-rooted in Ohio (burned out remains from the race riots are still in Cleveland). Not trying to start a race thing, but it's sadly true, at least in NE Ohio. Ask anyone about the the race riots and most will go on a HUGE tangent about how Cleveland was destroyed because of it.

Not surprised by the Texas result, Clinton did well among Latinos and Rural White voters which is a huge portion of Texas. Obama got what, college kids and people in the inner city? Not enough to make up the difference.

My projections: Clinton winning in Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and perhaps Puerto Rico. Obama wins Mississippi, Oregon, Wyoming, North Carolina, Guam, and whatever else is left. Both still don't have enough delegates to win.

Reasons? Obama and his NAFTA fiasco does not sit well with Rust Belt state voters. Try preaching how awesome NAFTA is in the Rust Belt and prepared to be chased out of the state. Obama gets his traditional minority South and liberal Northwest support.

This means that Clinton will maks the case to super delegates that she won the states with huge electoral votes, while Obama won small electoral vote states and many states that Republicans almost always carry in the general election. Superdelegates want a winner and Clinton is nominated.

Meanwhile people forget about who the hell John McCain is because he falls out of the public eye due to the high profile Democratic Primary battles.

PS: Expect legal battles for Michigan and Florida delegates in a month or two.

i have been hearing that unless clinton wins both ohio and texas with a lanslide, she should concede for the better good of the overall party. then again, your projections make sense because clinton probably won't do what she's told after these two marginal wins and the subsequent ego-boost.

[Maxxthepenguin]

Reasons? Obama and his NAFTA fiasco does not sit well with Rust Belt state voters. Try preaching how awesome NAFTA is in the Rust Belt and prepared to be chased out of the state.

Obama never preached in favor NAFTA, he more or less is for the same thing Clinton is for now and the Canada thing was 100% bullshit. The difference is Clinton called it (and I don't remember the exact quote) one of the most important and best moments of her husband's presidency.

[Xavier]

The people who want her to concede are the people who want Obama to win, not the entire party as a whole. CNN was showing a poll all day that suggested roughly 66% of polled democrats (in their sample, obviously) believed that if Hillary won either Ohio or Texas, she should stay in the race.

She isn't -that- far behind in the delegate count and even though it'd be impossible for her to "win" the nomination with pledged delegates, its impossible for Obama to do it as well. She now stands to continue on and make the case that she has the best chance of winning in the general election.

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Thats not true about Hillary and NAFTA. Plenty of people who were around at the time have suggested that Hillary herself had serious doubts about the agreement.

And the Canada thing is not 100% bullshit, its just stretching the truth.

[evilbau]

No way is she dropping out now, Pennsylvania will be another big test. Never count out the Clintons lol

@Xav: She would be expected to win both Michigan and Florida, and they will have to think of some solution for those states, as no way they would get frozen out of the convention. Even if its something like they have to seat the delegates but they aren't allowed voting rights for the nomination is possible. But being barred completely just isn't going to happen. Very interesting. Like we need more 'unprecedented situations' this election, haha.

[kyod]

Clinton projected winner in Texas too, interesting stuff

Definitely won the Texas primary. I think the Texas caucus is likely to go to Obama but the headline tomorrow morning is still going to read "Hillary takes Ohio and Texas, Campaign Competitive Once Again" or something like that.

yeah, exactly. What I said before about the delegates for winning the caucus will put him over the top I think will hold true, but clinton will spin it as big victories. This really won't be over if they think of an alternative for Michigan and Florida.

I know both of those elections were invalid (in Michigan, she was basically the only candidate on the ballot, no one could campaign in either), but is there any reason to believe she'd actually -lose- those states if they held their primaries again? I could be entirely wrong but Michigan seems like an "Ohio" state and Florida seems like it'd have a massive elderly vote, both of which shes done well with/in.

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Neither one of them can get enough pledged delegates on their own, so I really think Hillary takes it in the long run if nothing dramatic happens. Hillary started to bloody Obama up just a little bit the past week, and he almost choked under pressure. The Clintons are going to be pulling out all the stops and I just don't think Obama will be able to compete, since hes run his entire campaign on being about "new politics" and a uniter, and if he has to get into dirty politics a lot of his likability goes out the window. Yet for every attack he tries to sidestep, ignore, or mismanages, his elect-ability takes a hit as well.

Yep, he's backed himself into a huge corner. Whatever he does, it won't help him. He also has shown his noviceness with one of the members of his campaign talking to Canada and him having no idea about it. He should have gotten rid of that person immediately, which would have shown strong leadership. But he did nothing, which makes him appear weak. And like you said, if he starts attacking Clinton then he throws "new poltics" out the window and he'll lose people.

And Michigan is in a worse financial state than Ohio, if I remember right. Aside from Detroit and maybe Grand Rapids, I'd expect Clinton to win there with the same, if not better margins if they held the election there. And yeah, Florida would go the same.

Obama never preached in favor NAFTA, he more or less is for the same thing Clinton is for now and the Canada thing was 100% bullshit. The difference is Clinton called it (and I don't remember the exact quote) one of the most important and best moments of her husband's presidency.

The Canada thing may be bullshit (I disagree), but voters in Rust Belt states now identify him with NAFTA. Not exactly good in places such as Northern Indiana, Western Pennsylvania, Northern Kentucky, and West Virginia.

[Xavier]

No way is she dropping out now, Pennsylvania will be another big test. Never count out the Clintons lol

@Xav: She would be expected to win both Michigan and Florida, and they will have to think of some solution for those states, as no way they would get frozen out of the convention. Even if its something like they have to seat the delegates but they aren't allowed voting rights for the nomination is possible. But being barred completely just isn't going to happen. Very interesting. Like we need more 'unprecedented situations' this election, haha.

I just can't imagine that, if its a difference of just a handful of delegates, that Hillary would be denied delegates she would have genuinely won all things being equal. They are going to -have- to find a solution because thats a ton of voters who have just been ignored.

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@kyod: Couldn't agree more. Obama should have immediately reprimanded or fired his adviser for meeting with an Canadian official, instead he just looked like he wasn't in control and didn't know what to do. That, coupled with the "red phone" ad Hillary started running just raised doubt about this persons ability to actually lead.

If anyone saw the past two SNL, there were a few lines that I couldn't agree with more. The first came during a Weekend Update in which Tina Fey humorously said that Hillary Clinton may be a bitch, but "bitches get shit done!". The second came during the opening last Saturday, and had Amy Poehler (as Clinton) saying:

All right, energy policy. The big oil companies are quite happy with the status quo. They're earning record profits and pretty speeches are not going to make them give up power. It's going to take a fighter, not a talker. Someone who is aggressive enough, and relentless enough, and demanding enough to take them on. Someone so annoying, so pushy, so grating, so bossy and shrill, with a personality so unpleasant, that at the end of the day the special interests will have to go, 'Enough! We give up! Life is too short to deal with this awful woman! Just give her what she wants so she'll shut up and leave us in peace!' And I think the American people will agree, that someone is me.

[Charla]

Proving once again that SNL politics is way more fun than real politics.

[wyrmtung]

If it weren't for the last two SNL's then I don't think Clinton wins on Tuesday. Obama was the sexy choice by bandwagon celebrities until someone in show business finally said "enough of the madness."

Thank god for these two wins. I was afraid that the Republicans would get their wish of running against Obama.

[Demosthenes11]

If it weren't for the last two SNL's then I don't think Clinton wins on Tuesday. Obama was the sexy choice by bandwagon celebrities until someone in show business finally said "enough of the madness."

Thank god for these two wins. I was afraid that the Republicans would get their wish of running against Obama.

uh the republicans would rather run against hillary - she is unelectable.

[Epincus]

Gore ran in 2000...

[Xavier]

If it weren't for the last two SNL's then I don't think Clinton wins on Tuesday. Obama was the sexy choice by bandwagon celebrities until someone in show business finally said "enough of the madness."

Thank god for these two wins. I was afraid that the Republicans would get their wish of running against Obama.

uh the republicans would rather run against hillary - she is unelectable.

The Republicans will absolutely tear Obama apart in a General Election. He will emerge so bloodied, so battered, so diminished, that his appeal of being "above it all" will just completely disappear. Hillary has a real advantage of already having been the target of substantial abuse and of being a bitch, someone who won't take shit.

Its not that I don't think Obama can win, but I don't think Hillary is unelectable.

[Olo401]

This election is definitely the biggest boon for politics junkies ever. This is only going to make our processes better as voter turnout climbs as a result of the excitement over supertight races. I actually can't wait to witness a brokered convention.

I'm a political junkie and this election is making me wonder if the Democratic Party is going to survive the next year. The problem is that there's a major fight going on right now between Obama and Clinton supporters among members of the online base - lots of Obama supporters are put off by Hillary's use of negative ads and rhetoric, and lots of Clinton supporters are put off by the "cult of Obama", the fact that he's black, and what they see as "the nerve of a MAN getting in the way of the FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT". Clinton's supporters have even gone so far that they've started using all-or-nothing tactics - echoing stuff that's been proven false like the whole Rezko thing and the look-Hussein-he's-muslin nonsense.

It's reached the point where people are saying they won't even vote for the other candidate in the general election. I'm at that point too - if Hillary somehow manages to pull off a Red-Sox-style comeback and win the nomination, I'm voting for either the Green or Libertarian party candidate and I'm changing my voter reg to independent.

[Olo401]

If it weren't for the last two SNL's then I don't think Clinton wins on Tuesday. Obama was the sexy choice by bandwagon celebrities until someone in show business finally said "enough of the madness."

Thank god for these two wins. I was afraid that the Republicans would get their wish of running against Obama.

uh the republicans would rather run against hillary - she is unelectable.

The Republicans will absolutely tear Obama apart in a General Election. He will emerge so bloodied, so battered, so diminished, that his appeal of being "above it all" will just completely disappear. Hillary has a real advantage of already having been the target of substantial abuse and of being a bitch, someone who won't take shit.

Its not that I don't think Obama can win, but I don't think Hillary is unelectable.

I have to disagree with this, because all the scare tactics and negative advertising her campaign is using will only make Obama's campaign that much more prepared to take out Johnny McBush in November. On the other hand, if Hillary gets the nomination all the people who crossed over to vote for Obama in the primaries will either disappear or vote for McCain.

[Xavier]

If it weren't for the last two SNL's then I don't think Clinton wins on Tuesday. Obama was the sexy choice by bandwagon celebrities until someone in show business finally said "enough of the madness."

Thank god for these two wins. I was afraid that the Republicans would get their wish of running against Obama.

uh the republicans would rather run against hillary - she is unelectable.

The Republicans will absolutely tear Obama apart in a General Election. He will emerge so bloodied, so battered, so diminished, that his appeal of being "above it all" will just completely disappear. Hillary has a real advantage of already having been the target of substantial abuse and of being a bitch, someone who won't take shit.

Its not that I don't think Obama can win, but I don't think Hillary is unelectable.

I have to disagree with this, because all the scare tactics and negative advertising her campaign is using will only make Obama's campaign that much more prepared to take out Johnny McBush in November. On the other hand, if Hillary gets the nomination all the people who crossed over to vote for Obama in the primaries will either disappear or vote for McCain.

I'd agree except the scare tactics seem to be working. And if they're working for Hillary, who isn't that dramatically different from Obama, imagine how effective they're going to be for McCain vs. Obama. On top of that, in the past week Obama has been faced with real criticism and hasn't exactly shown he has superb leadership skills.

I'm expecting a gigantic ultimate bloody showdown in the coming month.

[Charla]

I'm expecting a gigantic ultimate bloody showdown in the coming month.

Or someone from the party could step in (Ted Kennedy would work, but he might not want to) and go "guys, quit it. Can we have a little unity around here?"

[Norelco]

At this point I'm pulling for Hillary. Obama is mostly fluff delivered in an exquisite package.

[Xavier]

I'm expecting a gigantic ultimate bloody showdown in the coming month.

Or someone from the party could step in (Ted Kennedy would work, but he might not want to) and go "guys, quit it. Can we have a little unity around here?"

Ted Kennedy did step in and Obama didn't even carry his state.

ONLY GORE CAN SAVE US NOW.

[Olo401]

I'm expecting a gigantic ultimate bloody showdown in the coming month.

Or someone from the party could step in (Ted Kennedy would work, but he might not want to) and go "guys, quit it. Can we have a little unity around here?"

Ted Kennedy did step in and Obama didn't even carry his state.

ONLY GORE CAN SAVE US NOW.

There's quite a few party notables that haven't endorsed yet.. Dean, Gore, Edwards..

Personally I'd like to see someone like Noam Chomsky make an endorsement.

[Xavier]

I'm expecting a gigantic ultimate bloody showdown in the coming month.

Or someone from the party could step in (Ted Kennedy would work, but he might not want to) and go "guys, quit it. Can we have a little unity around here?"

Ted Kennedy did step in and Obama didn't even carry his state.

ONLY GORE CAN SAVE US NOW.

There's quite a few party notables that haven't endorsed yet.. Dean, Gore, Edwards..

Personally I'd like to see someone like Noam Chomsky make an endorsement.

Howard Dean absolutely will not endorse a candidate, it would be a huge conflict of interest, and hes said as much. Yesterday he said he didn't even take a Presidential ballot in Vermont for that very reason.

Gore, Edwards, and I think Bill Richardson would make for huge endorsements to sway the election. The only way this is going to resolve itself is if one of the candidates starts winning states by huge margins, otherwise its going to take one of them stepping down or a super delegate decision/brokered convention.

[evilbau]

Bill Richardson won't endorse because hes on the short list of veep choices