Super Tuesday (and the other primaries)

[Amele]

it certainly seems to be working pretty well in the primary, despite the 'other team' not playing by it. *shrugs*

early word has Obama winning wyoming by a 30 point spread. by the by. he's now "won" twice as many as hillary (more or less, depends on how you count texas really.)

Comparing current primary wins with electoral votes, Obama has 193 currently. Clinton has 219, but 263 if you count Florida and Michigan. Alot of Obama's wins are in traditionally red southern states. Clinton could easily take the swing states of Ohio and Florida, whereas I'm pretty sure Obama couldn't.

For me, it's all about who can win in the general election. I'm not convinced Obama could.

so you really think that dem strongholds like NY, CA, etc that Clinton won in the primary are ever going to vote for McCain in the general? if you look at the states that are actually theoretically 'in play' he's way ahead.


edit: Evilbau please. how about jumping in on the hit job that the harper gov't did on his nafta position? how about the plants in her town hall meetings to throw softball questions? how about the aide that was fired for disseminating the shamefully false viral emails about him being a muslim? how about the statements mischaracterizing his present votes? What about the mailings in NH that attempted to use those present votes to mischaracterize him as weak on pro-choice, when Chicago's Pro-choice for America organization gives him a 100% rating? what about "change you can xerox" when in the exact same debate her closing statements are a crib of Edwards and Bill? hell. what about the fairy tale comments or comparing his win in SC to Jesse Jackson? what about the insult 40 states strategy or the attempt to sue to have the NV caucuses in Las Vegas closed after the union endorsed him instead of Clinton?

neither candidate is particularly free from sin here but don't try and act like they're both trying to play fair.

[SwampdonkeyPLD]

Hillary's campaign has done nothing of the sort. Please, don't get me started on this.

Go ahead, provide some proof. Insinuating someone isn't experienced enough to handle being president is hardly playing dirty.

You know what is?

"Today we are a nation at war. And Barack and Hillary have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror: They would retreat, declare defeat.
And the consequence of that would be devastating. It would mean attacks on America, launched from safe havens that would make Afghanistan under the Taliban look like child's play. About this, I have no doubt.
...
If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Sens. Clinton or Obama would win. In this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror
...
And one of the things we believe in is that we cannot allow the next president of the United States to retreat in the face of evil extremism."

- Mitt Romney

That's playing dirty? That's just rhetoric.

Playing dirty is Hillary darkening Obama's skin color in one of her ads to make him appear more black.

[kyod]

it certainly seems to be working pretty well in the primary, despite the 'other team' not playing by it. *shrugs*

early word has Obama winning wyoming by a 30 point spread. by the by. he's now "won" twice as many as hillary (more or less, depends on how you count texas really.)

Comparing current primary wins with electoral votes, Obama has 193 currently. Clinton has 219, but 263 if you count Florida and Michigan. Alot of Obama's wins are in traditionally red southern states. Clinton could easily take the swing states of Ohio and Florida, whereas I'm pretty sure Obama couldn't.

For me, it's all about who can win in the general election. I'm not convinced Obama could.

so you really think that dem strongholds like NY, CA, etc that Clinton won in the primary are ever going to vote for McCain in the general? if you look at the states that are actually theoretically 'in play' he's way ahead.

Do you really think that Republican strongholds such as the southern states Obama won would ever vote go democrat? See, I can toss it right back. Clinton has wider appeal among states, as shown in the recent primary, whereas Obama only gets the high population centers.

[Olo401]

That's playing dirty? That's just rhetoric.

Playing dirty is Hillary darkening Obama's skin color in one of her ads to make him appear more black.

There's actually a shitload of debate as to whether that was intentional or it was distortion from the television recording. Unfortunately the video used in the ad doesn't lend specific credibility to either side. Unfortunately Clinton's campaign has used so much innuendo and factual distortion that you just can't tell for sure what's not their doing and what is.

[Olo401]

Do you really think that Republican strongholds such as the southern states Obama won would ever vote go democrat? See, I can toss it right back. Clinton has wider appeal among states, as shown in the recent primary, whereas Obama only gets the high population centers.

Some of them, yes. Of the states Bush carried in 2004, I'm pretty sure Obama can win Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Ohio, Montana, Iowa, Alaska, Georgia, and Florida if they don't get tangled up in voting booth bullshit again. I would include Louisiana in this list if there wasn't so much disruption and resettling of the population from Katrina.

[Correction]

That's playing dirty? That's just rhetoric.

Playing dirty is Hillary darkening Obama's skin color in one of her ads to make him appear more black.

There's actually a shitload of debate as to whether that was intentional or it was distortion from the television recording. Unfortunately the video used in the ad doesn't lend specific credibility to either side. Unfortunately Clinton's campaign has used so much innuendo and factual distortion that you just can't tell for sure what's not their doing and what is.

Didn't Clinton send out pamphlets using the 'Obama wearing a turban' image? That bitch is dirty.

[archibaldcrane]

Didn't Clinton send out pamphlets using the 'Obama wearing a turban' image? That bitch is dirty.

That's what the Drudge report said, but Clinton denied it. It's unclear whether it's true or not.

[evilbau]

edit: Evilbau please. how about jumping in on the hit job that the harper gov't did on his nafta position? how about the plants in her town hall meetings to throw softball questions? how about the aide that was fired for disseminating the shamefully false viral emails about him being a muslim? how about the statements mischaracterizing his present votes? What about the mailings in NH that attempted to use those present votes to mischaracterize him as weak on pro-choice, when Chicago's Pro-choice for America organization gives him a 100% rating? what about "change you can xerox" when in the exact same debate her closing statements are a crib of Edwards and Bill? hell. what about the fairy tale comments or comparing his win in SC to Jesse Jackson? what about the insult 40 states strategy or the attempt to sue to have the NV caucuses in Las Vegas closed after the union endorsed him instead of Clinton?

neither candidate is particularly free from sin here but don't try and act like they're both trying to play fair.

All of that is relatively clean except for the muslim email and that person was fired. Playing dirty is mischaracterizing present votes? you really think thats negative politics? Both candidates are on the record saying this primary has remained civil and the reality backs it up. They aren't 'free from sin' but this hasn't gotten very negative yet, you guys have skewed perceptions of what 'playing fair' is. Compare it to Mitt Romney's primary campaign leading up to Super Tuesday or Swiftboating/'Flip-Flopper' of 2004.

That's playing dirty? That's just rhetoric.

Well, yes its rhetoric, but it was a concession speech. It was his chance to exit the race with some dignity and instead he takes a parting shot at democrats. I think its really poor taste to equate voting Democratic with supporting terrorism or surrendering.

[evilbau]

I think you guys are getting caught up in the changing tone of this primary. I think the run up to Pennsylvania will become increasingly negative but everything up to this point has remained relatively positive. I think March 4 was the turning point, and things will get more negative from this point on, but its like you guys are re-writing history. They haven't released the attack dogs on each other yet.

[archibaldcrane]

Whoever wins had better be ready, because the Republicans aren't going to play nice. McCain knows this all too well - anyone remember his illegitimate black baby from the 2000 North Carolina primary?

[Kuya]

Whoever wins had better be ready, because the Republicans aren't going to play nice. McCain knows this all too well - anyone remember his illegitimate black baby from the 2000 North Carolina primary?

Ilegitimate black babies is pretty much what America was founded on. He really should have been proud.

[Maxxthepenguin]

Hillary's campaign has done nothing of the sort. Please, don't get me started on this.

Go ahead, provide some proof. Insinuating someone isn't experienced enough to handle being president is hardly playing dirty.

You know what is?

"Today we are a nation at war. And Barack and Hillary have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror: They would retreat, declare defeat.
And the consequence of that would be devastating. It would mean attacks on America, launched from safe havens that would make Afghanistan under the Taliban look like child's play. About this, I have no doubt.
...
If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Sens. Clinton or Obama would win. In this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror
...
And one of the things we believe in is that we cannot allow the next president of the United States to retreat in the face of evil extremism."

- Mitt Romney

That's playing dirty? That's just rhetoric.

That's some dirty fucking rhetoric... what happened to treating people fairly?

[SwampdonkeyPLD]

Dunno, but all we have to do is start hoping for it, I'm sure.

[Vandole]

me and some of my friends are going to the obama speech tomorrow in jackson, mississippi tomorrow, i'll take some pics.

[Maxxthepenguin]

Dunno, but all we have to do is start hoping for it, I'm sure.

How about holding people responsible for what they say.

[Olo401]

Didn't Clinton send out pamphlets using the 'Obama wearing a turban' image? That bitch is dirty.

That's what the Drudge report said, but Clinton denied it. It's unclear whether it's true or not.

I tend not to believe anything sourced directly to Drudge. He's lower than Fox/News Corp. when it comes to sliming people.

[evilbau]

Something that has come out recently which cracks me up..

The '3 am' ad uses stock footage of a 8 year old girl sleeping, and it turns out the 8 year old is in reality a 17 year old who has come forward as an Obama supporter lol

http://www.newsweek.com/id/120274

[Amele]

it certainly seems to be working pretty well in the primary, despite the 'other team' not playing by it. *shrugs*

early word has Obama winning wyoming by a 30 point spread. by the by. he's now "won" twice as many as hillary (more or less, depends on how you count texas really.)

Comparing current primary wins with electoral votes, Obama has 193 currently. Clinton has 219, but 263 if you count Florida and Michigan. Alot of Obama's wins are in traditionally red southern states. Clinton could easily take the swing states of Ohio and Florida, whereas I'm pretty sure Obama couldn't.

For me, it's all about who can win in the general election. I'm not convinced Obama could.

so you really think that dem strongholds like NY, CA, etc that Clinton won in the primary are ever going to vote for McCain in the general? if you look at the states that are actually theoretically 'in play' he's way ahead.

Do you really think that Republican strongholds such as the southern states Obama won would ever vote go democrat? See, I can toss it right back. Clinton has wider appeal among states, as shown in the recent primary, whereas Obama only gets the high population centers.

This is why I said 'in play'. Olo already addressed this: in short - yes, there are states that realistically are not going to vote democratic in 2008. of those states that are winnable, Obama has won nearly all of them (only OH, AR, and NM come to mind for states he lost that might be winnable in 2008.) and I wouldn't count him out of any of those, especially if Richardson were his running mate.

I have trouble seeing Hillary carry any states that Kerry didn't beyond OH and AR, and she's very much at risk of losing MN, WI, and NH. (to be fair, Obama is at risk of losing NH too.)

I'm not sure what you mean by 'wider appeal among states' considering he's won 29-14 (ok, 28-16 if you give her TX, and FL - where he won the TX delegate count and FL was stripped so is functionally 'No Contest'.) he's blowing her out in states as varied demographically as Minnesota, Wyoming, Connecticut, and Georgia. her only wins with a margin >10% are states that border one of her two 'home' states (OK, AR, TN, NY, RI, MA) and she has only one win with a margin >25% (AR) he has 13 with a >25% margin (AK, WA, ID, CO, KA, NB, ND, MN, IL, HI, GA, SC, VA)

[SwampdonkeyPLD]

Didn't Clinton send out pamphlets using the 'Obama wearing a turban' image? That bitch is dirty.

That's what the Drudge report said, but Clinton denied it. It's unclear whether it's true or not.

I tend not to believe anything sourced directly to Drudge. He's lower than Fox/News Corp. when it comes to sliming people.

Where does he slime people?

[Correction]

Drudge was right about Monica Lewinski. He's not completely wrong about everything and that's not bad for a tabloid reporter.