Romney gives up..

[archibaldcrane]

Now a (D) is gonna win. Woman or Half-African American, Half-Caucasian the chose is yours!

Fixed.

...grumble.

Also, did you really think that the key to a republican winning was Mitt Romney?

[Charla]

"If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror."

Nothing like going back to the tried-and-true Bush playbook by referring to the Democrats as terrorist sympathizers, eh Mittens?

I dunno, I think calling people surrenderizers might be more effective than sympathizers.

[Tyche]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

What about huckabee?

He's campaigning for VP....

[Eaglestrike]

Now a (D) is gonna win. Woman or African American the chose is yours!

Doubtful. The way things are going with all the Obama vs Clinton fighting the Dems could very likely not be "together" when the final election day comes. The only republican with a fighting chance stepping out right now gets rid of most debating and in-fighting between republicans so that they can all solidify and back their single candidate. That means that starting out, no matter if Obama or Clinton win, McCain has much more support from republicans, while Obama supporters would be mad at Clinton for winning and vice versa.

I didn't think anyone but McCain had a chance to win the national election from the republican side. I've been a Paul supporter for a long time, but I knew he had no chance to actually win, I just hope that my support and the support of others lets other candidates know some of his ideas and concepts are desired. Huckabee wasn't going to win with a religious-vote-only campaign, Romney as a mormon is going to be biased against probably moreso than a black guy or white woman from the religious front (unless they focused on spinning Obama as a muslim). My best friend is a mormon but I still make fun of her religion to her all the time, and yes I do truly care about her and she knows I do.

[evilbau]

Now a (D) is gonna win. Woman or African American the chose is yours!

Doubtful. The way things are going with all the Obama vs Clinton fighting the Dems could very likely not be "together" when the final election day comes. The only republican with a fighting chance stepping out right now gets rid of most debating and in-fighting between republicans so that they can all solidify and back their single candidate. That means that starting out, no matter if Obama or Clinton win, McCain has much more support from republicans, while Obama supporters would be mad at Clinton for winning and vice versa.

I didn't think anyone but McCain had a chance to win the national election from the republican side. I've been a Paul supporter for a long time, but I knew he had no chance to actually win, I just hope that my support and the support of others lets other candidates know some of his ideas and concepts are desired. Huckabee wasn't going to win with a religious-vote-only campaign, Romney as a mormon is going to be biased against probably moreso than a black guy or white woman from the religious front (unless they focused on spinning Obama as a muslim). My best friend is a mormon but I still make fun of her religion to her all the time, and yes I do truly care about her and she knows I do.

The republicans are not unified in backing McCain. Democrats may be divided until the nomination, but I doubt they will lose in november. They have all the new voters, the unlikely voters, I bet the independants will break for democrats. The whole GOP is tagged with bush fatigue, they are going to have a tough election.

[Xavier]

Now a (D) is gonna win. Woman or African American the chose is yours!

Doubtful. The way things are going with all the Obama vs Clinton fighting the Dems could very likely not be "together" when the final election day comes. The only republican with a fighting chance stepping out right now gets rid of most debating and in-fighting between republicans so that they can all solidify and back their single candidate. That means that starting out, no matter if Obama or Clinton win, McCain has much more support from republicans, while Obama supporters would be mad at Clinton for winning and vice versa.

Thats complete nonsense.

There have been numerous AP polls in which Clinton and Obama supporters were asked whether they would be happy if the other candidate won the nomination, and both candidates came out at roughly 70%. Its ludicrous to suggest that either the Clinton camp or the Obama camp would destroy the party if their candidate lost the nomination. Its downright ignorant. Obama and Clinton are campaigning for the nomination, neither has a clear victory yet, but that doesn't mean they are destructively fighting one another. On the contrary, they seem to be so agreeable that neither candidate has been seriously knocked down because everything has been so positive.

Thus far, except for a small bout in South Carolina, the Democratic race has been exceptionally civil. Neither Obama nor Clinton have vilified the other, and both agree on almost every issue. Their difference is in their voter base, one attracting typical democrats and the other generating excitement and brining in new voters, young voters and independents. This is an amazing situation where the Democratic party would be happy with either candidate and the polls reflect that.

Meanwhile, when McCain took the stage today after Romney announced he was dropping out of the race, he got booed by a significant portion of the audience. I don't mean to be condescending but your grasp on the political atmosphere isn't very informed.

[sunb1ind]

He somehow thinks there's a difference between Clinton and Obama besides how they give speeches.

[Charla]

There's what, 9 more months to the election? Now think back to what we were all predicting 9 months ago (lolGiuliani).
The lesson: expect something unpredictable to happen.

[sunb1ind]

Who is "we"?

People actually thought McCain wasn't the most likely candidate? Giulliani?

[Demosthenes11]

Now a (D) is gonna win. Woman or African American the chose is yours!

Doubtful. The way things are going with all the Obama vs Clinton fighting the Dems could very likely not be "together" when the final election day comes. The only republican with a fighting chance stepping out right now gets rid of most debating and in-fighting between republicans so that they can all solidify and back their single candidate. That means that starting out, no matter if Obama or Clinton win, McCain has much more support from republicans, while Obama supporters would be mad at Clinton for winning and vice versa.

Thats complete nonsense.

There have been numerous AP polls in which Clinton and Obama supporters were asked whether they would be happy if the other candidate won the nomination, and both candidates came out at roughly 70%. Its ludicrous to suggest that either the Clinton camp or the Obama camp would destroy the party if their candidate lost the nomination. Its downright ignorant. Obama and Clinton are campaigning for the nomination, neither has a clear victory yet, but that doesn't mean they are destructively fighting one another. On the contrary, they seem to be so agreeable that neither candidate has been seriously knocked down because everything has been so positive.

Thus far, except for a small bout in South Carolina, the Democratic race has been exceptionally civil. Neither Obama nor Clinton have vilified the other, and both agree on almost every issue. Their difference is in their voter base, one attracting typical democrats and the other generating excitement and brining in new voters, young voters and independents. This is an amazing situation where the Democratic party would be happy with either candidate and the polls reflect that.

Meanwhile, when McCain took the stage today after Romney announced he was dropping out of the race, he got booed by a significant portion of the audience. I don't mean to be condescending but your grasp on the political atmosphere isn't very informed.

You are completely ignoring last election though. I bet you thought that in 2004 the dems were gonna own the election because of bush's fuckups. Shit happens, and I know a shitload of people voting for Obama that said they would rather vote McCain than hilary. I don't understand why your argument is golden but everyone else's isn't.
Or is this where you start quoting ben franklin again?

[Jimmayus]

That's a ridiculous argument, just because you know what you consider a lot of people who would rather vote McCain than Hillary doesn't mean that that is reflective of the Democratic base as a whole. I don't even understand where you could draw a comparison.

[evilbau]

Now a (D) is gonna win. Woman or African American the chose is yours!

Doubtful. The way things are going with all the Obama vs Clinton fighting the Dems could very likely not be "together" when the final election day comes. The only republican with a fighting chance stepping out right now gets rid of most debating and in-fighting between republicans so that they can all solidify and back their single candidate. That means that starting out, no matter if Obama or Clinton win, McCain has much more support from republicans, while Obama supporters would be mad at Clinton for winning and vice versa.

Thats complete nonsense.

There have been numerous AP polls in which Clinton and Obama supporters were asked whether they would be happy if the other candidate won the nomination, and both candidates came out at roughly 70%. Its ludicrous to suggest that either the Clinton camp or the Obama camp would destroy the party if their candidate lost the nomination. Its downright ignorant. Obama and Clinton are campaigning for the nomination, neither has a clear victory yet, but that doesn't mean they are destructively fighting one another. On the contrary, they seem to be so agreeable that neither candidate has been seriously knocked down because everything has been so positive.

Thus far, except for a small bout in South Carolina, the Democratic race has been exceptionally civil. Neither Obama nor Clinton have vilified the other, and both agree on almost every issue. Their difference is in their voter base, one attracting typical democrats and the other generating excitement and brining in new voters, young voters and independents. This is an amazing situation where the Democratic party would be happy with either candidate and the polls reflect that.

Meanwhile, when McCain took the stage today after Romney announced he was dropping out of the race, he got booed by a significant portion of the audience. I don't mean to be condescending but your grasp on the political atmosphere isn't very informed.

You are completely ignoring last election though. I bet you thought that in 2004 the dems were gonna own the election because of bush's fuckups. Shit happens, and I know a shitload of people voting for Obama that said they would rather vote McCain than hilary. I don't understand why your argument is golden but everyone else's isn't.
Or is this where you start quoting ben franklin again?

The democats do not have it locked up but Xavier has it right. You invoke '04 but McCain does not have the support of the Republican base, which Bush could always count on no matter how much he fucks up (he still has 30+% job approval). Those Republicans don't like McCain. He isn't liked by the party faithful, the Rush Limbaughs and his listeners, the Evangelicals, etc. Kerry was a weak candidate, the alternative to Howard Dean when he fucked up. His message stemmed from bush hate when half the country didn't hate him. He didn't have a good message.

Voter turnout for Democrats is surging, new voters especially. I really don't see most independents going for McCain even if they like him the most among the Republicans. Neither Democratic candidate has gone negative except maybe hillary and bill for a bit there calling out Obama's credentials. She scaled that back real quick once she saw the backlash. No guarantee it'll be civil in the future but so far its been clean, moreso than Romney-McCain. If Obama wins the nomination, Hillary supporters will flock to Obama, they aren't going to sit it out like many Republicans are saying right now (they refuse to vote for McCain). Its questionable that picking a running mate to show that he's a 'real conservative' will even work.

You gotta look at it realistically, and right now, its looking tough for McCain. In light of any kind of analysis, your comments like "If McCain is Repub candidate, McCain will be the next president" just sound downright uninformed.

[Charla]

Who is "we"?

People actually thought McCain wasn't the most likely candidate? Giulliani?

We being mostly the media in this case:

As of September 2007, most polls showed Giuliani to have more support than any of the other declared Republican candidates, with only Senator Thompson and Governor Romney showing greater support in some state polls.[222] Specifically, state-by-state polls for the 2008 Republican nomination show that Giuliani polls ahead of all other candidates in a majority of states including the delegate-rich states of California [223], New York [224] and Florida[225]

@demo: the lessons of 2004 would mostly just reinforce my point that you can't make accurate predictions at this point.

[thestalkmore]

Who is "we"?

People actually thought McCain wasn't the most likely candidate? Giulliani?

Uh, back when McCain's campaign was flat out BROKE people thought he was going to drop out. Giulliani was definitely a forerunner.

[Xavier]

There was a direct correlation between exposure and Giulliani in the polls. The more people got to know him the less likely they were to support him. Playing off of Senator Biden's dead on remark, there is only so much you can do when every sentence is just "a noun, a verb, and 9/11."

---------------------------------------------

If I insinuated that I don't like McCain or that I don't think McCain can win, that wasn't my intention. I've posted in other threads that I like him. I consider myself an independent, principally because both parties have some policies that are just bat shit insane. My point was that the summation given of the Democratic Party was just flat wrong.

I certainly don't believe my opinions are necessarily superior to others, but I absolutely feel that my arguments are far more substantial than say, yours, because my posts are quite a bit more focused than ridiculous blanket statements like "If McCain is Repub candidate, McCain will be the next president," or "torture is fine as long as it isn't used on me."

[sunb1ind]

Who is "we"?

People actually thought McCain wasn't the most likely candidate? Giulliani?

Uh, back when McCain's campaign was flat out BROKE people thought he was going to drop out. Giulliani was definitely a forerunner.

That's true, but I was mostly going off of the debate reactions. the reports of him early on starting out "broke" is exaggerated. I don't think he was every worried about getting sponsors, to say the least.

[evilbau]

Plus his private life of failed marriages and an estranged son is such that most republicans won't get behind him for values reasons. In hindsight, he wasn't a strong candidate.

[Xavier]

Its hard to say if things would have gone differently, but in hindsight his strategy of ignoring Iowa/New Hampshire and betting the farm on Florida was obviously a failure of an experiment.

[pohibaba]

The democats do not have it locked up but Xavier has it right. You invoke '04 but McCain does not have the support of the Republican base, which Bush could always count on no matter how much he fucks up (he still has 30+% job approval). Those Republicans don't like McCain. He isn't liked by the party faithful, the Rush Limbaughs and his listeners, the Evangelicals, etc. Kerry was a weak candidate, the alternative to Howard Dean when he fucked up. His message stemmed from bush hate when half the country didn't hate him. He didn't have a good message.

Voter turnout for Democrats is surging, new voters especially. I really don't see most independents going for McCain even if they like him the most among the Republicans. Neither Democratic candidate has gone negative except maybe hillary and bill for a bit there calling out Obama's credentials. She scaled that back real quick once she saw the backlash. No guarantee it'll be civil in the future but so far its been clean, moreso than Romney-McCain. If Obama wins the nomination, Hillary supporters will flock to Obama, they aren't going to sit it out like many Republicans are saying right now (they refuse to vote for McCain). Its questionable that picking a running mate to show that he's a 'real conservative' will even work.

You gotta look at it realistically, and right now, its looking tough for McCain. In light of any kind of analysis, your comments like "If McCain is Repub candidate, McCain will be the next president" just sound downright uninformed.

Like I stated in a different thread, I think it's all gonna come down to Ohio. This election could come down to being as close as it was in 2000. The Republicans could choose Hitler lolgodwin as their nominee and they'd still win the south. What states do you think that Hillary/Obama will pick up that Kerry and Gore didn't?

[Charla]

Either Florida or Ohio alone would have changed the outcome in 2004. There's also the black vote in the deep south, and a couple evangelicals might stay home if Huckabee throws a tantrum and doesn't endorse McCain. Also, see the arguments in the Super Tuesday thread about McCain being "practically a Democrat".