Nyzul Isle Weapon Droprates issues/bugs(?)

[Aymee]

This is an extension of a Nyzul thread that's gotten off topic and starts with my post here.

Having done Nyzul for like 9 months now, I was seriously unaware that weapons might not be a 100% drop. ...At least for some people, apparently. Whereas my group is 50/50ish, others reported near-100%, or just lower in general.

Our warper currently is someone who has not reset at 100 before, so that idea is out. We've had 3 warpers over time and none of that ever seemed to matter--always 100%. Quite honestly, if a weapon did not drop, I would have been so freakishly shocked I'd probably have called a GM over it.
Moreover, we've killed 100s with TH0, 1, 2 and 3 before, so I don't think this is a discussion at all related to TH. Nor are we talking about droprates on hats.


Theories/Ideas/wtf?

[Wizerd]

I was under the impression they were 100% drop too. However, it would seem it's like someone in that thread posted, there's that 1/xx chance that nothing will drop, because they didn't program in that last bit (akin to Dynamis Lord, 33/33/33 for each coin, 1% nothing).

Not sure how drop rates work (no one is of course), but I imagine there's a (xx)/(power of 2) variable involved, possibly xx/128. When SE wants to make something equal, they make it equal. 18 weapons would line up with xx/128 at 126/128, leaving a 2/128 (1/64) chance at nothing dropping.

That's the best I can think of.

[Slott]

Our group experienced more "emptys" or hat only than 1/64. I'd say roughly 1/6th or 1/7th of the time we had an empty boss, or weaponless. (Floor 100 of course)

[Kylen]

Our group is at least 30/30 on weapon drops from floor 100, and we've seen all weapons drop so far except RDM and DRG. I think Wizerd's theory is probably correct.

[Linsivi]

Are there any weapons every member present for the kill has? It could be it's trying to drop a weapon you all have, but since you all have it does not drop.

[wintersquall]

across all different manner of forums, LJs, in-game discussion with other group leaders and all the other reading i've done about nyzul (a lot >.>) my opinion is that the average droprate for floor 100 weapons is no lower than 90-95%, if your group is getting a lower rate than that it's a statistical aberration.

and yes i know that doesn't help =( but as with any repeated, single-instance random generation it's entirely possible (although highly unlikely) you could roll a 0 or 1 every time out of 100.

i would guess that the theory of SE leaving an empty spot in the random number generator is correct, since groups on their second runthrough with runic key (% chance rises to 100 on the discholders job) have reported no instances of having no weapons dropped. although it's possible they intentionally made it that way, doesn't make much sense.

haha i said make sense and SE in the same sentence.


that's a little long-winded, sorry.

edit: iirc lins, there are groups that have received weapons that all members already had in inventory. they just get the item lost message when it drops out of the pool.

[Wizerd]

Our group experienced more "emptys" or hat only than 1/64. I'd say roughly 1/6th or 1/7th of the time we had an empty boss, or weaponless. (Floor 100 of course)

It's perfectly possible for you to have an average rate of 1/6 or so with no weapon drop, if the drop rate is 1/64. People go 2/20 on Macha's Coat which is nearly unheard of, and some go 0/200-300 on it. Random statistics, really.

[Pninja]

Pic that I posted in another thread in event strategies, for those that think it's not possible to have a non-weapon drop. I have damage filtered in the pic since I'm on RDM, and our warper warped out at 12% and our MNK tank had hundred fists on and worked the boss with our BLU and it gave us the ol "x falls to the ground" that we always see and then dropped nada. You'll see complaints about TH cause our THF couldn't make it that night so we brought a spare mage instead and got no hats in 4 runs.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y51...a/wtfnyzul.png

For FYI/stats purposes, this was around our 6th run that we did a few weeks back. We've done like 14 runs and lost 1 total so far. We've gotten PLD BST BRD BLM BLU SAM MNK WHM x2 DRK x2 WAR x2 weapons to drop thus far, and amongst us we have at least 1 person lv75 for all of those jobs except for DRK (highest was lv51 at the time).

And yeah, I agree with what's been said here about the random stats and it basically being a 90-95%+ drop on weapons.

[Pninja]

...aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand again! 15/17 on weps. At least we got a hat that someone needed 70+ instead of no drops this time XD

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y51.../wtfnyzul2.jpg

[Aymee]

Thanks all who have posted. How odd. I'd say it's kinda weird and doesn't make much since that they wouldn't have programmed it 100%, since there are popped NMs and others that have 100% droprates on things (so obviously it's possible to program in).

A few ideas I liked: The powers of 2 into the drop formula though, and this being set to 128 perhaps. If there are 18 weapons, in order to set them all equally into that that the closest you could get is 18*7=126. So it'd be possible there's no drop in the last 2/128 = 1.56% chance of no drop. Doesn't matter what power of 2 you run it above that as you'll get the same. If you wanted to get it as close to the /random 0-999 system as possible the closest multiple would be 18*55 = 990, keeping you under 999. So that would mean a 1% chance of no drop.

If we run 1.56% no drop, it would still be a 45.5% chance at going 50/50 like my group, so entirely possible.
If we did 1% no drop, that's 60.5% of going 50/50. Even more reasonable.
Things like only missing 1-2 drops out of 50+ would be statistically common and within one standard deviation either way.

This is the only difference I can think of that might be making a specific difference and forcing a drop is that I have a runic key (completion and erased disc), and I have always been present at a kill on 100 (We did a win on 100 before the hat patch and before the warp thing was really figured out). Though I know that only means a forced drop on my job if it's my disc, there could be some kind of bug or weirdness in the system that changes it to 100% but not job-specific if there is a key present.
Another random idea would be if the disc being used was started before this patch, but since things are rarely that complicated, it's probably a random deal.

Methinks this system was designed for there being 20 jobs (since 20 would be divisible into the 0-999 system perfectly as 5% each), meaning there could have been placeholders for other jobs built in even during ToAU. I doubt there would have been some kind of deliberate effort to make there be no drop unless the math of the game mechanics made it impossible.

[Slott]

My group went something like 33/40, each run with TH4. If we'd do 5 runs a week, we'd expect at least 1 to be completely empty (once we had 3 with weaps, 2 empties in a 5 run period) :/

[Pninja]

Crazy that this happens...

For Aymee, your theories seem pretty sound. For data collection purposes: My group has 2 warpers. 1 who has had an original disc since the beginning weeks of Nyzul, and 1 that has a disc after all the patches. The 2 no-drops we've had happened to be when the newer disc was used and that person was warped out. So either that's not a factor, or it's a factor in vice versa and a newer disc is what triggers a potential no-drop.

Nobody in my group has a key item for Floor100 either, so that also could still be a factor.

SE could just hate my group and the others who have posted...also a factor lol. Luckily, until SE ends up putting the usefulness in that they promised on the weps, I won't lose sleep about not getting a weapon occasionally. On the 2 runs we won yesterday and got drops from, we got our third WHM club and second PLD sword.

[Nighteagle]

Quick Question, for the guy who as a Runic Disc, do they have to warp out before the boss on floor 100 dies, or just warp out before you exit to be able to keep doing floor 100?

[skurlover]

You have to warp before the boss dies. Hence why that runic disc holder is usually the last one to get a hat.