Help solve this dispute, BG!

[Naver]

Reviewing my Linkshell's Attendance logs:

12/12/07 There was a maintenance. Fafnir popped. (Day2?)
12/13/07 Fafnir popped. (Day3?)
12/14/07 Nidhogg popped. (Day4?)

worst logic ever?

How so, because I'm posting relavent information that I gathered from attendance logs? Take from it what you will, but that coincides with what Ashira was trying to prove to Sath. Btw say hi to Dmize for me! ^^;

[Izzy]

If ANYONE else had made this topic, it would have been locked within 30 seconds Q_Q. This is spam forum shit Q_Q

[Skeetaru]

sample size plzzz. Thats like saying that because faf poped 22hours+ 3 days in a row that its now 22-24 and not 21-24.

I did, hes on vent with me right now!

[Naver]

sample size plzzz. Thats like saying that because faf poped 22hours+ 3 days in a row that its now 22-24 and not 21-24.

I did, hes on vent with me right now!

Granted yea sample size is small, but I'm not gonna sift through 4 years of logs to prove a point that 10 others have already agreed to. Then again I've been to a day3 Nidhogg, so take that for a grain of salt too.

ninja edit:

For you skeet since my sample size was small and I got bored because you provoked me. ;;

2/20/07 Maint. Fafnir popped.
2/21/07 Nidhogg popped.

1/16/07 Maint. Fafnir popped.
1/17/07 Fafnir popped.
1/18/07 Fafnir popped.
1/19/07 Nidhogg popped.

10/18/06 Maint. Fafnir popped.
10/19/06 Fafnir popped.
10/20/06 Fafnir popped.
10/21/06 Fafnir popped.
10/22/06 Nidhogg popped.

and that's it for now, hope you don't want more!

[Sev]

D1-D3 -> NQ
D4-(How much S-E hates you) -> Possible HQ

In sath's defense ifrit has been under maint most of the time so its been faf -> faf -> nid for the last week =P

[Hex]

Day 3 can never ever be an HQ. This works for any sort of 'king'. King Behemoth, Nidhogg, Aspi, Overlord, Tzee or Adamantking. They all work the same timers. Maint is always day 3.

This could also bring up an arguement I have with some members that swear HQ isn't just a pure lottery after day 3 and that he will pop by day 8. Thankfully this current Nidhogg run is proving them wrong and last week a King Behemoth did the same. Course all I can remember is 13 straight NQ Turtles with no maint involved bout 18 months ago or so.

[Shuemue]

Day 3 can never ever be an HQ. This works for any sort of 'king'. King Behemoth, Nidhogg, Aspi, Overlord, Tzee or Adamantking. They all work the same timers. Maint is always day 3.

This could also bring up an arguement I have with some members that swear HQ isn't just a pure lottery after day 3 and that he will pop by day 8. Thankfully this current Nidhogg run is proving them wrong and last week a King Behemoth did the same. Course all I can remember is 13 straight NQ Turtles with no maint involved bout 18 months ago or so.

This.

[Maxxthepenguin]

Advanced? Really?

[Shuemue]

Advanced? Really?

It's been a slow week and people are lurking and waiting for Luciola.

[Sci]

<Sath> HOW COULD I BE SO BLIND
<Sath> MY ENTIRE LIFE IS A LIE
<Sath> THE CAKE
<Sath> THE WOMEN
<Sath> THE ASHIRA
<@Rocl> yeah youre pretty much retarded
<Sath> ITS ALL A LIE
<Sath> brb, an-izzy

Not exactly sure what an -izzy is, but it seems like a burn on him. So I approve of this message.

[BerenTebogo]

<Sath> HOW COULD I BE SO BLIND
<Sath> MY ENTIRE LIFE IS A LIE
<Sath> THE CAKE
<Sath> THE WOMEN
<Sath> THE ASHIRA
<@Rocl> yeah youre pretty much retarded
<Sath> ITS ALL A LIE
<Sath> brb, an-izzy

Not exactly sure what an -izzy is, but it seems like a burn on him. So I approve of this message.

An-Hero

An-Izzy

Get it?

[Izzy]

I've never QQ'ed so hard that I cut Q_Q

[BerenTebogo]

I've never QQ'ed so hard that I cut Q_Q

I love you baby

[Ansems]

In Shiva Nidhogg always pops in the early days.
It has never popped on day 3.. tho only 4-5

[Suiram]

It's possible that HQ spawns are 72 hour cooldown (or something effectively similar). Much like how most lotto spawn NMs have a cooldown of 1h, 3h, 15h or something where they absolutely cannot spawn. Since king pop times mostly tend to migrate to earlier in the day, the chance of a day 3 pop being 63~71 hours since the last time a HQ died is going to happen considerably more often than the times it pops last window the first 3 days in a row. So in the event that one of those day 3s occurs later in the day from the previous HQ ToD maybe one could see a "Day 3" pop.

Similarly, if HQ died and nobody touched NQ for a week, then killed it would the next day be "Day 2" or "Day 7"? I asked this a while back and got conflicting opinions lol

[Therin]

HQ can definitely pop on server up, have seen it multiple times.

Sorry Sath, but this time. . . YOU LOSE!

[Suiram]

HQ can definitely pop on server up, have seen it multiple times.

How often would you say it happens? Note I don't actually believe you, I'm just trying to bait you.

[Therin]

HQ can definitely pop on server up, have seen it multiple times.

How often would you say it happens? Note I don't actually believe you, I'm just trying to bait you.

Very rarely. In four years (on and off) of keeping up with kings, I've seen it happen twice on Fairy (both with King Behemoth) and once on Cerberus (also with King Behemoth). Never seen it happen with Aspid or Nidhogg, but I don't see why they would be any different than KB.

I've HEARD (note: haven't seen it myself) that all three HQs popped after maintenance once on Cerberus at some point in the past. I'm sure an old school native of the server could tell you about it.

Now for speculation:

I personally believe that day 1 and 2 are 100% NQ pop, and day 3 begins a chance for HQ. I also feel like server maintenance places you on day 3. If it works like a 72-hour lottery as someone has previously mentioned, it makes sense - I've certainly seen other lottery NMs up as the servers come up, although it's very rare (akin to the rarity of a Leaping Lizzy spawning on the very first PH of it's window). In fact, this happened with the Moliones's NMs - a LOT of people saw them up as soon as the servers came up after they were implemented, because the seem to respawn really often as opposed to other NMs which have a much longer wait.

Also, I think anyone who has camped kings for any period of time will tell you that THERE IS NO SUCH THING as a 100% HQ pop. A lot of people say day 7 or day 10 is 100%, but it's definitely not. I've personally seen day 15 NQ Fafnir pops. It sucks, but it's true.

[Suiram]

Well this is where I'm coming from. I have never seen it, and enough people who post here have also never seen it, and usually the people who do claim to have seen it are clearly mistaken (see: the recent randomer question post where the guy claims his LS was fighting Hydra when Aspid popped right after maintenance, while Hydra wouldn't have been up either). So I guess where I wanted to go next was to ask how many instances of it not occurring would dissuade you from thinking it possible.

Remember that every time there's a server maintenance, there are 96 aery/dominion/valley pops. So if there was an open call for screenshot evidence, it would only take a handful of maintenances to get pretty overwhelming evidence of it not being possible (or a counter-example in the offchance I'm actually wrong here).

[Xno Kappa]

Going off of personal experience with Aspid, I'll say Nid can pop off maintenance.