Wamoura Effect

[Sesshoumaru]

"The butterfly effect is a phrase which encapsulates the more technical notion of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory. Small variations of the initial condition of a nonlinear dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. So this is sometimes presented as esoteric behavior, but can be exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill might roll into any of several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position.

The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that ultimately cause a tornado to appear (or prevent a tornado from appearing). The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different.

Recurrence, the approximate return of a system towards its initial conditions, together with sensitive dependence on initial conditions are the two main ingredients for chaotic motion. They have the practical consequence of making complex systems, such as the weather, difficult to predict past a certain time range (approximately a week in the case of weather)."
taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

I'd like to coin the phrase, "Wamoura Effect," as describing how the chaos theory can be applied to the way in which SE operates. It came to me when I was reading the latest update thread and the chain of causality which presented itself seemed very much out of wack. where "a" leads to "q" which should be "a" leads to "b" and then "c" and so on.
Does the break of recast to fix pettp does not seem to follow a set pattern, however from a developmental or coding stance it may which introduces the chaos theory element. Thus emerges the perceptive stance one might be better off taking if seeking to determine the possible ramifications of an update prior to it's actual implementation.
This in turn would limit the expectations which emerge almost undoubtedly with every update announcement and within the down time during any surprise/emergency maintenance. Thus the hope to predict "rain," or in the case of FFXI nerf, or any undesired result, can be optimized. Even should some predictions be off or entirely wrong and an update result in a beneficial and ultimately pleasant outcome little to no harm should be done to the populace at large resulting in the elevation or inflation or positive feelings, or at least a securing of the status quo. On the opposite end of the expectations spectrum, should one place reliance on a prediction of "fair weather" and instead be met with "rain" a deflation would occur with practically no chance of maintaining a status quo, an automatic -1 effect if you would.
However taking a pessimistic view at every junction which this community approaches would undoubtedly be harmful, if not more harmful then taking an optimistic view and being met with disappointment. Thus the need to concentrate on a system of prediction so as to study and through this examination develop a projection of a future actuality rather then guesstimating and achieving at best an approximation of a future possibility.
However I digress for while the FFXI community is tenacious and diligent in scholarly pursuits it would be a grand task, perhaps even greater then the task of predicting actual weather patterns, to study and predict the outcomes of players and developers actions on the future. Even if one would make the attempt it would most likely require large amounts of time and dedication to make even the slightest progress. However I put the thought out there because one can never truly know.

[Jkun]

God I love this forum.

[The Q]

Formatting issues aside, and the fact that I didn't read it all, I like it.

[Khamsin]

Beckwin would love this thread.

[Kenji]

Someone isn't a programmer. And hasn't played any other MMOs. lawl.

[SephYuyX]

Someone isn't a programmer. And hasn't played any other MMOs. lawl.

Youre referring to the FFXI staff, correct?

[Genosync]

Beckwin, and for that matter Naygor would love this thread to no end.

If I wasn't operating on only two hours' sleep, I'd totally come up with some massively long intelligent sounding crap too. lol

[Dakana]

Someone isn't a programmer. And hasn't played any other MMOs. lawl.

Youre referring to the FFXI staff, correct?

and that's the game

[Almalexia]

The only pessimistic view I have regarding weather involves windy weather in Bhaflau Remnants.

[Genosync]

The only pessimistic view I have regarding weather involves windy weather in Bhaflau Remnants.

>.>; I'm going to assume you understood the whole post but are playing dumb.

[Almalexia]

okwww

[Alistaire]

for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill might roll into any of several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position.

Cute, actually read that, but where that example uses a ball at the top of a hill, translating that to ffxi means knowing the full programming code of the game (the hill) and how changes are built into it (the ball). Good luck with that.

[Sesshoumaru]

This has nothing to do with programming. although it would be possible to make a program to predict, or help the process along. I was bored and thought a change of pace would be nice.

[shieldsofwindurst]

I'd like to coin the word, "BGchistic". It refers to when you're so bored at work that you post something on BG even though you know that the only possible result is being flamed into oblivion.

[Kuya]

This topic was too advanced.