DA in WS & Gorget Acc Tests

[Max™]

Well, I overlooked the possibilities for missed DA's for one reason, I got more than 22% DA's, but I always WSed in 22%.

Still, a good place to start, shame the Forts aren't higher level, but at least you can eliminate most mob variables with them.

[RKenshin]

You should be getting more than 22% DAs, that's perfectly normal.

With each swing having a chance to DA, your true chance of one DA activating is 40%. However factoring in accuracy, this is more like a 32% chance. Your results gave a 29% chance, slightly lower than expected but still very close.

If you really only had a 22% chance to DA once in a 3-hit WS, the expected number of DAs would be about 19%. So while the sample was a little too small to draw any conclusive evidence from, this once again backs up the DRK testing I was talking about earlier that was strongly suggesting each hit in a WS has a chance to DA.

[Suiram]

It's not a 99.9941% chance. There's only about a 4% chance for you to see a 2x DA, meaning that over 101 WS you should've seen about 4. The odds of not seeing any is more like a 98.4% chance.

And, I wouldn't completely discount the possibility either way. I went 1/34 on HQ stave synths recently, and 99.94% of the time that's impossible.

Just to be clear, what I calculated wasn't the chances of 2x DA, but rather the chance of seeing a TP return that could only occur with at least 2 DAs under the assumption that the number of DAs in a WS was uncapped, aside from the global 8-swing cap and the one DA chance per swing cap (4 hit WS, 4 chances to DA). But rather than 4%, I got over 9%, and the chance of not DAing at least once under those assumptions, even in so few of trials should be the 99.9941% that I listed before.

If there's a disagreement as to the assumptions, then I apologize, but if it's a question of the probabilities I'm pretty sure I'm right. The calculations I used are in the post I linked, and I'll be back in a couple hours if there's a further dispute on that question.

[RKenshin]

I made a typo towards the end of that quote that I fixed, but I meant that it's a 98.4% chance against not seeing 2x DA.

If you're also counting the possibility of 3x DA, then you're looking at a 4.4% + .3% chance of seeing a TP return higher than a single DA. In which case, it's now a 99.3% chance of this not happening. It's an incredibly low possibility and a great test but again, I wouldn't completely discount it as a chance of happening as unlikely as it is. Especially after me and a few others saw it happen last night.

[Max™]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was always under the impression that Rid/Joy/Amood/Merc weapons could activate during WS, because of oddly high TP returns I've gotten when I used to farm during amood latent, pre-Fort axe get.

Would seem that a Mainhand Ridill Vorpal could DA at least twice from what I understood.

Outside of weapon procs though, I've never personally seen it, even in meripos going up into the high 200 chains with me doing nothing but spamming raging rush, campaign spamming it, etc.

I'm sure I've done a few thousand crit TP raging rushes in the months since the 2h update, and never seen TP return to suggest 3 DA's.

[RKenshin]

No multi-hit weapons have been confirmed in any regard to also activate on WS.

I've done my own testing on that as well, and I had the same results.

[Max™]

Well, thinking back, the only time I've ever seen a TP return indicating 3 doubles was screwing around trying to self -SC with my Amood waaaaaaaaaaay back when.

Could swear I recall seeing 2x Doubles on a Steel Cyclone too with Fort axe.

Though, keeping in mind it's been almost two years now, and I think I may have resolved it as a weird store TP thing, which is why I go 18% full return, 20% one DA, 21% two DA...

Still can't say for sure if I thought 21% was three, or if I actually saw 22% once.

I do know that when Amood was active, I got near constant 20% returns.

[Therin]

You can absolutely, beyond a shadow of a doubt, double attack Vorpal Blade twice with only one sword. I've done it dozens of times with 15% double attack rate (/WAR and Brutal).

I solo a lot on PLD and always spam Vorpal, and believe me, it happens fairly often (I'd say I see one every day or two days).

I'm NOT sure if I've double attacked three times. Part of me thinks I have (it would be 12% TP return) but I'm not sure, so I won't say whether it can be done, or not. Either way, 2x double attack is definitely possible, but that doesn't really do anything for the RR discussion.

I leveled my WAR from 60 to 66 in almost only Campaign (only 1 EXP party) and I've never seen a 22% TP return RR either. 21% happens every once in a while (and does really really nice damage) but not 22%. I remember cracking a 2x double attack while I had Mighty Strikes up on a crab in Mount Zhayolm for 1690 at level 65. <.> Was fun.

Also, Fortitude Axe is irrelevant because it can't proc during a WS. Pretty sure Amood can't either, but maybe it can, the latent sucks anyway so who uses it. <.>

[Max™]

Fort I know can't, but Amood seemed to give 20-21% A LOT, like freakishly so, and this was before I had DA merits or pole strap even existed, so just 15% DA.

I kept one in my pocket cause it's pretty/to go spam shit during FQM cause the latent was fun as hell and I had no sea shell to get a Fort axe/luck getting my gorget finished (yeah, I didn't start a easy earring to get stones, was a loooooooooong time ago when I was sure I'd have a UFO organ next time my sea shell did a Limbus run... OOPS, THEY BROKE UP) til recently.

[RKenshin]

I never actually played with Amood, although sounds like it's worth checking out now based on what you're saying.

Closest I've been to one is when they released it and Luminowhatever ores to make it, which were selling at 1.5m. I was in Halvung mining those things non-stop, made a nice 5m off of suckers that bought it! \:D/

[Max™]

Yeah, got one when they got down to like 500k just cause it was pretty and I had the gil.

It is the most retarded latent ever, but man it's fun while it's active.

Silly me, I hoped SE wouldn't completely and utterly fail on them and either make like dark amood one phase, amood the other, and the new wootz a third maybe.

Course, if they REALLY didn't wanna fail, the higher damage would be active during WS, and the occasionally/lower damage the rest of the time...

God that would be shweet.

[Suiram]

I made a typo towards the end of that quote that I fixed, but I meant that it's a 98.4% chance against not seeing 2x DA.

If you're also counting the possibility of 3x DA, then you're looking at a 4.4% + .3% chance of seeing a TP return higher than a single DA. In which case, it's now a 99.3% chance of this not happening. It's an incredibly low possibility and a great test but again, I wouldn't completely discount it as a chance of happening as unlikely as it is. Especially after me and a few others saw it happen last night.

Sorry I can't see where you're getting 4.4% or 4.7%, when I get twice that. I get 7.5% if you can DA twice and at most twice, plus 1.6% if you can DA 3 times and at most 3 times, and another 0.05% if you can DA 4 times. Making the total chance to see two or more DAs 9.2% and the chance of not seeing two on a single weaponskill 90.8%, and the chance of not seeing two over the course of 101 WSs 0.0059%.

[RKenshin]

Ah, my mistake, I was miscounting the number of hits in Vorpal. I'm getting it mixed up with RR with all the talk about RR, and was calculating for 3 hits instead of 4.

But I get a 7.2% chance to DA just 2 times, and a .8% chance to DA three times. So, this totals to an 8% chance. Or, a .022% chance of it not happening... For 99.978% certainty.

However, with the last few posts now a lot of people's results are conflicting.

[Suiram]

What math do you do to get these? Just double-attacking and not even factoring in accuracy I get 9.8% for two DAs, 11.8% for two or three, marginally more for up to 4. The lower numbers I listed above are after figuring accuracy that will give a TP return that couldn't be achieved without two or more DAs.

[RKenshin]

We're factoring in accuracy differently?

It is a 9.754% chance to DA twice, a 1.148% chance to DA three times, a .051% chance to DA four times. It's a 73.5% chance to land 6 hits, 69.8% chance to land 7 hits, 66.3% chance to land 8 hits. Combined, it's a 7.17% chance to DA twice and land all 6 hits, a .8% chance to DA three times and land all 7 hits, and a .034% chance to DA four times and land all hits.

Totaling in about an 8% chance to see a TP return that suggests more than one DA.

[Suiram]

Yeah it's definitely the accuracy calculation then. Although I did incorrectly get 1.721% rather than 1.148% on getting 3 DAs, now that I look back, but I think that's minimal.

One thing you neglected to consider with the above numbers was the chances of landing 6 hits in 7 swings which is an additional 3.7%, and likewise for landing 6 or 7 hits in 8 swings. Although I actually took it a step further and also considered the combinations of TP returns for missing on the first hit and landing 5 from the extra hits/offhand hits, which is a TP return of 5% that would only be possible with two or more DAs as well. So that also explains why my probabilities are slightly higher after factoring in accuracy (but I I think sound).

[Aragon of Odin]

Regarding the whole Fort. Axe procing during ws's. I was always lead to believe that it was possible and even other sites list it as being possible for this to happen. I've always noticed when I use SC with Fort. Axe it tends to proc alot more then with M.Bhuj, most people I know believe it can proc during ws's and have only met a few who say other wise. What kind of testing has lead you to believe that it doesn't proc during a ws?

[Kirschy]

I've XPed /w Fort Axe a few times. Double attacks can proc /w the extra hits during normal attack rounds. But it's plainly obvious when watching your TP returns that it does not proc during WS. (The extra hit procs almost 50%, it would be extremely noticable.)

[RKenshin]

Basically what Kirschy said, I've exped with Fortitude Axe quite a few times and it definitely was not giving a 50% DA-rate for WS. I posted on my LJ about it and the test I ran, which was shortly after the axe was introduced. As a WAR/THF spamming SC, the DA-rate was the same as it just about always was.

Also, if you already have a 22% DA rate on WAR and combine it with the 50% DA-rate of the weapon that also stacks with DA... It'd be stupidly noticeable. I'm talking like, with RR (and discounting accuracy for now) you'd have 2% chance to not DA. Meaning you would DA at least once almost 98% of the time, with 17% for one DA, 43% for 2 DA, 37% for 3 DA.

Even if you take away the double attack outside of the weapon, you'd still only not DA about 12.5% of the time. 37% of the time 1 DA, 37% 2 DA, 12% 3 DA.

I don't think anyone can confirm results anywhere close to either of those percentages. So yeah, doesn't stack.

And based on those numbers alone I'm skeptical as to whether Amood would either, but I haven't tested that personally so I can't say.

[Capo]

yeah jailer weapons dont proc on ws so just macro in your bomblet/core/sting/grenade/sachet for ws then back to stones for tping