Attrition calculator

[Izzy]

As for crafting lately, whenever I feel the desire to make some gil crafting, I just throw away the gil i was going to spend and kick myself in the balls, to save time and get the same result.

Ding! I've wasted 1.1ish mil in the past 3 weeks trying to get Carmisse signed blessed mitts/trousers +1.

[kargath]

Story time! yay! read only if you're bored or at work hehe.

So, yeah, I thought about hq1,2 and 3, and...um...nyope. ain't gonna do it. wouldn't be prudent.

This tool simply wasn't designed with consumables in mind because people ALREADY craft consumables thru attrition (read: sole sushi) so those folks already know what they're looking at.

This tool was designed for durables. It isn't exactly clear where the breakdown is for brigs or amemet mantles (well, it is, you just gotta sit and figure it out).

Back when I first wrote this tool, it really enlightened me, so allow me to share my story and why I brought this tool to BG.

I always tried amemet mantles, either 1 or 3 (1/3 should be doable, right?) at a time. I was doing just shy of breaking even on them. I wasn't losing a LOT but I was losing gil. So when I wrote this tool, I plugged in the figures for the amemet mantle from a month old economy on them: 1 skin = 50k, 1 HQ = ~200k, NQ = vendor trash (1k).

I was very surprised to see what my program told me: and it was telling me I was "doing it wrong" -- wasting my time doing 1, 2 or 3 of them per session. If I were gonna be serious about it, weighing pure averages, I had to do 8 before the "crafting gods took me seriously".

Why 8? Because I only needed to HQ 25% of them to break even, and with a tier2 synth, 25% IS NOT AN UNREALISTIC FIGURE. Granted, it shouldn't be EXPECTED, but it's not beyond the realm of reality to hit 2 +1 mantles out of 8, sorta like an 8 spot keno game. The calculator showed me that 2/8 is indeed a waste of time, but it's not a waste of money. (well, maybe it is with AH listing fee /shrug)

I'd have never ever thought of trying to do 8 mantles in one sitting because it's such a whopping upfront expense and I'm such a chickenshit (for me, yeah, I'm mcnoobsauce, remember? I'll never have the chops NOR the gil to smash b. hides - I'll leave that to you guys).

So I did it. I liquidated everything I could and bought 8 skins *wince, cry, whimper*. And just effing did it.

Went 4/8. Can't sell 'em, of course, because people on my server who've invested the time and effort to get mantles to tier2 seem to like undermining their own said time and effort by destroying what little economy these items have/once held. I don't know about you, but I didn't level leathercraft to 100 so I can sell a +1 mantle for 100k. Call me greedy, but there is that pesky return on investment thing...

Maybe I just got really lucky...after all, I've gone 1/12 on tier2's before...

It just brought things into perspective, and since I'm tired of being misled on hq stuff, and theory and all that, I wanted to atone for my superstitious ways here and share the tool which operates only on fact, figures and widely accepted probability.

Thank you for letting me spew forth.

[detlef]

If Amemet Mantle is breakeven with a 25% HQ rate then you would be foolish to even bother with it. What's the point of investing time into something with an expected return of 0?

[kargath]

If Amemet Mantle is breakeven with a 25% HQ rate then you would be foolish to even bother with it. What's the point of investing time into something with an expected return of 0?

Gambling on that 3/8 when I know 2/8 is at least break-even.

[aurik]

And...for every 3/8 you'll have a 1/8 session to balance it out.

[shirak]

Ding! I've wasted 1.1ish mil in the past 3 weeks trying to get Carmisse signed blessed mitts/trousers +1.

ahh, you do know those synths are tier0, and you'll be lucky to spend 10-20mil to get both hqs...

anyways, highs and lows is all I gotta say:

0/15 jester cape+1 today, would the crafting calculator have figured that, nope.

I think I use like 1 only 1 craft synth in this day and age crafting market. I respect having fun trying to model crafting though.

I just figure out cost/profit etc either in my head, or via ffxi.ah. Never seemed very difficult.

[Tyr]

Gah! Thanks again for the calculator, it helps to know exactly how badly I'm shafting myself....

I'm 0/13 on Hauber synths going for HQ, thankfully no breaks, but that puts me roughly at a 1.8-2m loss...

I have abt 2m left once I sell these NQs, maybe a bit more. Should I keep going with this sonofabitch or just call it quits?

Smithing 94+3 / Capped CC

[kargath]

No!

just do, um, ...

*...lots...*

in one sitting

[Gan]

nice tool, just wondering why the "synt up to 32" button instead of 36 lol.

My logic may fails, but i'd say u wanted to put 1-2-3-4 stacks :D

[kargath]

oh good lord HAHAHA

I prolly had "32-bit" rolling around my head when I typed it.

Yes, it should be 36 xD

Buttons fixed.

[edited to say buttons fixed]

[Alathar]

Gah! Thanks again for the calculator, it helps to know exactly how badly I'm shafting myself....

I'm 0/13 on Hauber synths going for HQ, thankfully no breaks, but that puts me roughly at a 1.8-2m loss...

I have abt 2m left once I sell these NQs, maybe a bit more. Should I keep going with this sonofabitch or just call it quits?

Smithing 94+3 / Capped CC

My experience has been about 5% HQ rate on haubs. You could get lucky, I HQed my 9th and 11th synths ... then didn't HQ again until my 61st. You'll have highs and lows, but the odds will balance out. So ... current market conditions, etc.