I cant figure out how to work this statistics assignment. I would go ask the professor for help but he is the kind of teacher that looks at you like your retarded if you ask for help. I hate math. It will probably only take some of you a couple minutes to work this problem. Don't laugh!
For the coming season, Specialty plans to introduce a new product called Weather Teddy. This variation of talking teddy bear is made by a company in Taiwan. When a child presses Teddy's hand, the bear begins to talk. A built-in barometer selects one of five responses to predict the weather conditions. The responses range from "It looks to be a very nice day! Have fun." to "I think it may rain today. Don't forget your umbrella." Tests with the product show that even though it is not a perfect weather predictor, its predictions are surprisingly good. Several of Specialty's managers claimed Teddy gave predictions of the weather that were as good as many local television weather forecasters.
As usual, Specialty faces the decision of how many Weather Teddy units to order for the coming holiday season. Members of the management team suggested order quantities of 15,000, 18,000, 24,000, or 28,000 units. The wide range of order quantities suggested indicate considerable disagreement concerning the market potential. The product management team asks you for an analysis of the stock-out probabilities for various order quantities, an estimate of the profit potential
and to help make an order quantity recommendation. Specialty expects to sell Weather Teddy for $24 based on a cost of $16 per unit. If inventory remains after the holiday season, Specialty will sell all surplus inventory for $5 per unit. After reviewing the sales history of similar products, Specialty's senior sales forecaster predicted an expected demand of 20,000 units with a 0.95 probability that demand would be between 10,000 units and 30,000 units.
Assignment:
Prepare a managerial report that addresses the following issues and recommends an order quantity for the Weather Teddy product. Use equation editor to show your computations in each section.
1) Use the senior sales forecaster's prediction to define a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution. In particular, state the mean and standard deviation for a normal distribution that is consistent with the information provided by the senior sales forecaster. Use equation editor to show your computations.
I put in bold the important stuff. If anyone knows a formula for getting these values I would appreciate it! Thanks!
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