Mog Bonanza Kicking-off May 16! (04/30/2008)

[rex_garuda]

so is the 100mill gonna be lumpsum or over time? >.>

[Alistaire]

Best prizes:

Rank 1 Prize

100 million gil

Rank 2 Prize

Velocious Belt

Rank 3 Prize

Nashira Seraweels

Rank 4 Prize

Behemoth Hide

Homam pants > nashira pants for being a better item and Hauteclaire > nashira for difficulty obtaining.

[Starr]

1st Place: 100M and get Gugnir.
2nd Place: RDM Hat!
3rd Place: Hauteclaire.
4th Place: Behe Hide, I think a lot of people will get Khroma Ore knowing Behe Hide will be killed, and try get hands HQd.

[Alistaire]

so is the 100mill gonna be lumpsum or over time? >.>

Doesn't say over time, so should be lump sum. Knowing SE though, I wouldn't be surprised if at least 1 person who wins that gets banhammered for suspected rmt.

[Kaeko]

On a slightly different note, from a purely in-game economy standpoint, you can expect even more deflation due to this event.

This is because the $$ reward was calculated simply by taking the cost of a pearl (1000G) and multiplying by the number of attempts it would average to win X rank. So if EVERYONE picked money, they would break even; however, we know that some people want those items, so more money will be spent than received back.

Also, consider that the payout occurs all at once, but the money spent for pearls occurs over time until the event deadline. This means a massive amount of gil will be lost from the economy prior to the event payout (deflation), and some of it returned to the economy on payout.

If you want to get deeper, you also have to consider the fact that 1000G pearls are being purchased by everyone but there are very few winners (just large lump sums). So while a good chunk of the $$ will be returned to the economy on payout, it will be in the hands of a few. It would take a great deal of time for the economy to stabilize from that type of situation.

TL;DR Version:
Expect deflation before payout and do not expect the payout to balance deflation later.

[Yutuyu]

Rank 1

5 digits, you have to get all 5 right to win the 100 million prize. Each person gets 10 guesses.

There are 9 possibilities for each digit, and 5 digits chosen, therefore the amount of possibilities to choose are 9^5 = 59049. Thus chance of choosing the right combination is 10 in 59049.

For each additional character your chances become 10*number of characters in 59049.

There are 7000-6000 characters per server if I recall correctly from the last announcement. Thus, the chance of someone winning the 100 million prize on your server (assuming everyone gets 10 tickets) is roughly 6000*10/59049, which happens to be about 1.

This doesn't even necessarily *mean* one person will win, just with all of the possibilities, chances are 1 person or so will actually win rank 1.

Estimated amount added to the economy: 100 million



Rank 2

10 in 2401 is about about a .4% personal chance of winning. Serverwide, If you use the 6000*10/2401 you'll find that ~25 people or so will win this prize.

Estimated amount added to the economy: 250 million



Rank 3

10 in 343 in is about 30 in 1000, or 3% personal chance of winning. Serverwide, 6000*10/343 = ~175 people or so will win this prize.

Estimated amount added to the economy: 175 million



Rank 4

10 in 49, about 20% chance. Serverwide, 10*6000/49 = 1224 people will win.

Estimated amount added to the economy: 12.24 million



[u]Cost[u]

These 6,000 people also buy tickets for 10 each. Thus...

Estimated amount added to the economy: -60 million



Total economic impact:

100 + 250 + 175 + 12.24 - 60 = 477.14 million.

Considering the sky didn't fall when they removed billions of gil from the server, I don't think it's going to fall when they add around half a billion.



EDIT: Working on an expected value: .000169, .004, .03, .2, 1 (chance of each cash prize)
Prizes: 100 million, 10 million, 1 million, 100k, -10k

Expected return: 100 mil * .000169 + 10 million * .004 + .03 * 1 million + 100k * .2 + 1*-10k = 169.35 + 40000 + 30000 + 20000 - 10k = 80169.35


EDIT2: I guess I could've just divided the millions by 60000, which gives me about the same thing so I didn't do it wrong.

[Lexa]

so is the 100mill gonna be lumpsum or over time? >.>

Why would it be over time??? Everything else is a onetime deal.

"OK, you got Rank 2 right, here's one half of your Velocious Belt - it's only got 3% haste. Come back later for the remaining 3%."

EDIT: All this math trying to figure out the best way to win is makin me dizzy.

[Therin]

There are 9 possibilities for each digit

There's actually 10 possibilities, so you might want to recalculate.

0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

This is assuming 0-9.

[Gergall]

On a slightly different note, from a purely in-game economy standpoint, you can expect even more deflation due to this event.

This is because the $$ reward was calculated simply by taking the cost of a pearl (1000G) and multiplying by the number of attempts it would average to win X rank. So if EVERYONE picked money, they would break even; however, we know that some people want those items, so more money will be spent than received back.

Also, consider that the payout occurs all at once, but the money spent for pearls occurs over time until the event deadline. This means a massive amount of gil will be lost from the economy prior to the event payout (deflation), and some of it returned to the economy on payout.

If you want to get deeper, you also have to consider the fact that 1000G pearls are being purchased by everyone but there are very few winners (just large lump sums). So while a good chunk of the $$ will be returned to the economy on payout, it will be in the hands of a few. It would take a great deal of time for the economy to stabilize from that type of situation.

TL;DR Version:
Expect deflation before payout and do not expect the payout to balance deflation later.

Wrong - if everyone takes gil, this lottery pays out more than it takes in. Consider a player who buys all 100,000 combinations. That player is guaranteed to win 1st prize, and 100M covers the cost of all the marbles.
That same player will also win 9 2nd prizes, 90 3rd prizes, 900 4th prizes, and 9000 5th prizes. Massive profit.

[Yutuyu]

Anyway, as you can see from my above post, a lot of the speculation earlier in the thread about the math behind the odds was completely wrong.

[Yutuyu]

There are 9 possibilities for each digit

There's actually 10 possibilities, so you might want to recalculate.

0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

This is assuming 0-9.

AUGH. Ok.

[ronin sparthos]

so is the 100mill gonna be lumpsum or over time? >.>

Why would it be over time??? Everything else is a onetime deal.

"OK, you got Rank 2 right, here's one half of your Velocious Belt - it's only got 3% haste. Come back later for the remaining 3%."

EDIT: All this math trying to figure out the best way to win is makin me dizzy.

I think he was making a joke referring to the real lottery with the over time payments vs lump sum >.>;

[Epical]

@Yutuyu: You said there is 9 options per position within your 5-digit number, but there are 10. Nothing major, just pointing out a small flaw.

0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

[Kylen]

There are 9 possibilities for each digit, and 5 digits chosen, therefore the amount of possibilities to choose are 9^5 = 59049. Thus chance of choosing the right combination is 10 in 59049.

Why do you assume that 0 won't be a valid digit?

[Lexa]

[quote=ronin sparthos]

so is the 100mill gonna be lumpsum or over time? >.>

Why would it be over time??? Everything else is a onetime deal.

"OK, you got Rank 2 right, here's one half of your Velocious Belt - it's only got 3% haste. Come back later for the remaining 3%."

EDIT: All this math trying to figure out the best way to win is makin me dizzy.

I think he was making a joke referring to the real lottery with the over time payments vs lump sum >.>;[/quote:27xqytte]

I don't know how the American lottery works. Back home it's just all in one lump, regardless of the size of the jackpot. Of course, we don't reach America's jackpot sizes, either.

[Thistle]

I'm only interested in playing because revenue from the Mog Bonanza is supposed to go towards Mog House maintenance and improvement.

Is that flavor text, or are they actually planning to improve Mog Houses somehow?

I wish they'd improve moghouses. I need an extra room for all my stuff!

FFXI:the Animal Crossing edition go go go!

[A-Chaos]

Well, I find this event a refreshing change of pace.

Oh wait, my luck stinks.

Meh, w/e, this probably will top the update news XD.

[Therin]

Consider a player who buys all 100,000 combinations. That player is guaranteed to win 1st prize, and 100M covers the cost of all the marbles.
That same player will also win 9 2nd prizes, 90 3rd prizes, 900 4th prizes, and 9000 5th prizes. Massive profit.

Interesting, that's 10,000 characters. At 16 characters per account, you'd need 625 accounts. 625 * (12.95 + (1.00*15)) = $17,468 per month. So if you had to keep these accounts active, you'd be paying $52,406 for 289,000,000 gil.

On IGE it would only cost you $15,166.

[Purrrfect]

X X X X 00
X X X X 01
X X X X ...

And so on until X X X X 99.

= 100 marbles. At 10 per mule, that's 10 mules. Buying 100 marbles across 10 mules guarantees that your final number will match the ONE number pulled randomly.

That's a Rank 5 prize.

To guarantee a Rank 4 prize you'd need:

X X X 00 00
X X X 00 01
...
X X X 00 99
X X X 01 00
X X X 01 01
...

And so on until X X X 99 99, which requires 1000 marbles at 10 marbles per mule, which is 100 mules.

I SERIOUSLY don't think they're going to do 0-9. Doing that would put the odds of getting a Rank 1 prize at 1/100,000, which is 1/10,000 if you buy 10 marbles and would almost ensure multiple Rank 1 winners across the servers.

How did a 5-digit number turn into 5 2-digit numbers?

Most entertaining post of the thread! Thanks for delivering Therin.^^

[Razzley]

Great!