Mog Bonanza Kicking-off May 16! (04/30/2008)

[Cream Soda]

Rank 4 - My 37 THF could use some Boots ;o

Get Behemoth Hide
Sell Behemoth Hide
Buy Leaping Boots
???
Profit

[ronin sparthos]

Oh man, the epic lulz.

Winnrar: Yeah, that's right bitches, I got 10 of the same number, and won first prize. 1,000,000,000 NAO.

SE: Um, we can do 999,999,999... will you accept the last gil on a mule?

OMG RAIN HAT for Rank 4.

Man...

That or someone takes a HQ Koenig Body for rank 1.

[TheShadyMan]

Holy.
Fucking.
Shit.

[Max™]

Rank 4 - My 37 THF could use some Boots ;o

Get Behemoth Hide, current value: 600-800k depending on server
Sell Behemoth Hide, new value after everyone spam chooses them and tries to sell: 150k-250k depending on server
You are unable to buy the leaping boots for 250,000 gil.
???
Profit

Upside: No matter what happens, Behe market gets flooded, I'll feel less bad about my half-dream of getting full unicorn gear just to fucking wear it.

[ringthree]

This event looks like it will be a great success. However "Up to 10 Mog Bonanza marbles can be purchased per character level 5 or above"
I can see RMT abusing this event~

Actually, if you think about the odds and the real life cost (for the 2 months of registered fees), I am pretty sure that SE will win on balance. Its the reason people don't play the real life lottery like that. The prize never balances out to the cost to play with a large enough percentage of certainty to win.

[Alibeemac]

Rank 4 - My 37 THF could use some Boots ;o

Get Behemoth Hide
Sell Behemoth Hide
Buy Leaping Boots
???
Profit

I anticipate Boots being worth more than B Hide once this event is done as the market will soon be flooded with everyone doing the same thing ;o

[XanthePandy]

Oh wow. Mother fucking wow. SE is genius. If RMT get a win though... I'll fucking hate them. BUT WOW WOW.

[mikazuki]

10,000/16char = 625accts

625 x$7.50 = $4687.5

all five: once 100m
last four: 10x 100m
last three: 100x 100m
last two: 1000x 100m

400m minimum

100,000 marbles = 100m gil

300m IGE price ~$12k

an RMT operation with 625 existing accounts can create the necessary mules to have every number. they invest 100m, return is garuanteed 300m (would be more due to rank 2 synth mats). the profit margin isn't great, but good enough i'd imagine.

feel free to correct calculation.

[Toth]

Very exciting event :nikkei:

p.S Did they say anywhere that it is first come/first served regarding prizes?

[Octavious]

For Numbers 0-9;

a1 = 5/10 = 0.500
a2 = 4/9 = 0.444
a3 = 3/8 = 0.375
a4 = 2/7 = 0.286
a5 = 1/6 = 0.166

a1*a2*a3*a4*a5 = ~0.003952377 (propability all 5 match)
1 / 0.003952377 = ~253 (odds of winning 1 in 253 attempts)

Furthermore, if we use the notion of a Bernoulli Trial for support;

n = 5 ( numbers picked )
F = 10 ( total options )
M = 5 ( numbers that match )
p = 5 ( all 5 successes )

( M p ) ( F - M | n - p ) / ( F n )

( 5 5 ) ( 5 0 ) / ( 10 5 )

numerator:
(5! / 5! (5-5)!) x (5! / 0! (5-0)!)
(1 / 0!) x (1 / 0!)
1

denominator:
(10!) / (5! (10-5)!)
(10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1) / (5! (10-5)!)
(10*9*8*7*6) / (5!)
(10*9*8*7*6) / (5*4*3*2*1)
30240 / 120
252

appx. 1/252~

I'm just wondering because I honestly think I've made a mistake somewhere...the odds of matching all 5 seem a lot higher than I would have anticipated. Anyone verify with their own math as far as the odds go? As far as Mikazuki's go it does seem accurate to say that RMT could possibly pull a win. Man that would be funny...

[kuronosan]

Each Mog Bonanza marble with a winning number entitles you to an item of your choosing from the list of prizes in the corresponding rank.

Who the fuck pick anything but the gil as first or 2nd price? >_>

I dunno, Futsuno Mitama?

[Apelila]

This event looks like it will be a great success. However "Up to 10 Mog Bonanza marbles can be purchased per character level 5 or above"
I can see RMT abusing this event~

Actually, if you think about the odds and the real life cost (for the 2 months of registered fees), I am pretty sure that SE will win on balance. Its the reason people don't play the real life lottery like that. The prize never balances out to the cost to play with a large enough percentage of certainty to win.

This.

2 months of fee's and expecting RMT not to get said account ban hammered in that 2 months. Even if an RMT does take home the prize, a sudden cash infusion into the economy wouldn't act like it did in the past and recirculate endlessly through IGE's coffers. At most it would take a few months before a majority of it was siphoned / banned out of the economy again.

I'm also guessing that the Level 1 prize has hidden effect: account must have a character thats higher than level X or played for XX hours.

[XanthePandy]

Each Mog Bonanza marble with a winning number entitles you to an item of your choosing from the list of prizes in the corresponding rank.

Who the fuck pick anything but the gil as first or 2nd price? >_>

I dunno, Futsuno Mitama?

Every SAM will get Futsuno Mitama and then when someone finally locks AV, they'll kick themselves and want to return it for the 100 Mil.

[Suteru]

For Numbers 0-9;

denominator:
(10!) / (5! (10-5)!)
(10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1) / (5! (10-5)!)
(10*9*8*7*6) / (5!)
(10*9*8*7*6) / (5*4*3*2*1)
30240 / 120
252

appx. 1/252~

I'm just wondering because I honestly think I've made a mistake somewhere...the odds of matching all 5 seem a lot higher than I would have anticipated. Anyone verify with their own math as far as the odds go? As far as Mikazuki's go it does seem accurate to say that RMT could possibly pull a win. Man that would be funny...

These look wrong, shouldn't it be 10*10*10*10*10? Seeing how you can pick the same number twice. (I think?)

[Grieverao]

wtf?

Futsuno Mitama over Amano? gtfo

Get 100m finish Amano, done.

But serious question.

Have SE really thought about this thoroughly?

Any character lvl 5+? Only costing 1k per pearl?

Imagine some noob kid whos parents just got em FFXI for Xbox and a few days later buys a pearl and OMFG wins!!!!!








.......then quits because his friends on WoW miss him.

[RKenshin]

Wow, so... According to another site the odds of winning a lottery is found by:

(# range of ball)! / ((# range of ball - # of digits)!)

Along with another equation since for most lotteries you don't have to match the digit order, but for this one you do. So the other equation isn't necessary.

So, for this lottery it's:

(10)! / ((10 - 5)!)

Which comes out to 1/30240 chance of winning first prize.

With 500,000 content IDs currently open on FF, and if we assume 4/5 of them enter and all of that 4/5th buy 10 tickets...

- 132 first prize winners.
- 793 second price winners.
- 5,555 third price winners.
- 44,444 fourth prize winners.
- 400,000 fifth prize winners.

If everyone chose gil, this would add:

31,129,400,000 gil to the economy.

Or, if everyone in option four chooses a Behemoth Hide... 44,444 Behemoth Hides.


lol.. This is going to fuck things up.

[The Stig]

Brb, selling all my Dusk Gear (Hands, Feet, Legs) and rebuying it in 2 months.

[detlef]

Don't forget that every entry takes 1k out of circulation. That means (according to your example) 500,000*0.8*10,000 = 4 billion gil. For what it's worth.

[RKenshin]

For Numbers 0-9;

a1 = 5/10 = 0.500
a2 = 4/9 = 0.444
a3 = 3/8 = 0.375
a4 = 2/7 = 0.286
a5 = 1/6 = 0.166

a1*a2*a3*a4*a5 = ~0.003952377 (propability all 5 match)
1 / 0.003952377 = ~253 (odds of winning 1 in 253 attempts)

Furthermore, if we use the notion of a Bernoulli Trial for support;

n = 5 ( numbers picked )
F = 10 ( total options )
M = 5 ( numbers that match )
p = 5 ( all 5 successes )

( M p ) ( F - M | n - p ) / ( F n )

( 5 5 ) ( 5 0 ) / ( 10 5 )

numerator:
(5! / 5! (5-5)!) x (5! / 0! (5-0)!)
(1 / 0!) x (1 / 0!)
1

denominator:
(10!) / (5! (10-5)!)
(10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1) / (5! (10-5)!)
(10*9*8*7*6) / (5!)
(10*9*8*7*6) / (5*4*3*2*1)
30240 / 120
252

appx. 1/252~

I'm just wondering because I honestly think I've made a mistake somewhere...the odds of matching all 5 seem a lot higher than I would have anticipated. Anyone verify with their own math as far as the odds go? As far as Mikazuki's go it does seem accurate to say that RMT could possibly pull a win. Man that would be funny...

I think you're calculation is incorrectly assuming the order does not matter.

Removing the order multiples 252 by 120, for one out of every 30240. Which is the result I have.

Don't forget that every entry takes 1k out of circulation. That means (according to your example) 500,000*0.8*10,000 = 4 billion gil. For what it's worth.

Ah, good point. I didn't think to include that.

Although, that still leaves the other 27,129,400,000 gil.

[Moggy]

some ppl might need to do grade 3 maths again, your chances of winning is 1/(10^5)

or put simple, the number could be 00000-99999, total combination is 100,000, so your chance is 1/100,000