
Originally Posted by
aurik
There is statistically no way in hell you can kill the near-200 mobs in a full sandy clear and get only 58 singles. TH or no.
Then you don't know anything about statistics, as it is statistically possible to receive 0 drops for a full clear.
For example to ballpark it on the idea that 0-3 pieces can drop and all is equally likely...
The possibilities and their associated probabilities are:
0 drops - 25%
1 drops - 25%
2 drops - 25%
3 drops - 25%
Thus the probably is a uniform discrete distribution defined from 0 to 3, with a mean of 1 1/2.
Then the overall drop rate is going to be the sum of n random variables which share the above distribution... and i'm getting lazy. Central limit theorem, etc. In the end you get a very small chance, but it's technically possible.
I don't see why people are wasting their time calling him a liar. Do I believe him? No. But you can't prove that he IS a liar, and repeating that it's unlikely over and over again and then saying that it isn't possible (which isn't true) makes you just as much of a liar as he is.
EDIT: Chances that you get 0 currency drops 200 times in a row is 25%^200, aka a ridiculously small number, but not 0.