MLB '08 Season Discussion

[Viq]

Dice-K is 1-0 with a ND and a 3.00 ERA against tampa this year, 17 innings 11 walks.

Tampa is throwing Shields in game 1. He's 2-2 with an ERA over 5.00 against the Sox this year.

[Akiyama]

But they are also at Home which gives them a bit of an advantage. Honestly, I hope we get a 7 game series out of this. It'll be epic.

That and Daisuke being 1-0 with a 3 ERA is nice... but 17 innings and 11 walks? With the way Tampa Bay's team is right now with Crawford, Longoria, and Upton all back? That wouldn't be good. Gotta remember the last series you guys had with Tampa, I don't think Crawford or Upton were really back yet.

[Cephius]

Tampa is throwing Shields in game 1. He's 2-2 with an ERA over 5.00 against the Sox this year.

The split there is skewed because he got bombed in Fenway twice. 5 runs in 3 2/3 in May, and then 4 runs in 1 inning in June. In 14 innings against Boston at home, he has given up 2 runs, walked 2, struck out 12 and threw a complete game shutout. The match up for Game 1 clearly favors the Rays.

[Viq]

In 2 games @TB, Matsuzaka allowed 2 runs, struck out 12, gave up 5 hits, and walked 7 in 10 innings. The Rays are hitting .086 against Daisuke in The Trop. I don't see how the game 1 match up "clearly" favors Tampa.

[Cephius]

Because Shields, and the Rays in general, are incredibly difficult to beat at home. On top of that, I think Dice-K's walks will come back to bite him.

[Viq]

People have said that all season long. He led the AL in both walk total and BAA. He had the 3rd lowest ERA in the AL. His walks didn't come back to bite him all season, which includes games in Tampa.

[shieldsofwindurst]

Honestly, I hope we get a 7 game series out of this. It'll be epic.

Don't say that, I'm still recovering from 4 crazy nailbiting ALDS games. I'm gonna get fired if this keeps up.

As for the rotation, I guess I can accept the rationalization here, and I hope Dice-K pitches like he can, but admitedly the options are limited since we had to pitch Lester in game 4. Ideally we would have swept the Angels (which shouldn't have happened, I'm just talking hypothetically) so we could pitch Lester in 1, 4, and 7. I'm happy to play the percentages for home/away with lester & matsuzaka; what that leaves though is wake starting game 4. The issue I have with that is that if you look at the postseason back through 2003, wake seems to be way more effective in relief (as a long man) than as a starter.

Game 1 of the 2004 WS he got bombed; 2005 he gave up 4 runs in 5.1 (his best outing as a starter!); 2007 he gave up 5 in 4.2. Contrast that with what he did in relief; he pitched 2 (3?) innings of scoreless relief in that epic ALCS Game 5 in 2004; and he pitched 2 innings of scoreless relief in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS before giving up the boone hr (honestly with wake, it's gonna happen, he did well to get through 2). Yeah he got bombed in relief in game 3 of the 2004 ALCS; but then, so did Everybody.

Point is, if you know going in that you're gonna see the knuckleball, it doesn't seem that effective in October; either it's a thing with the fall weather, or just having everyone overprepared for it due to postseason scouting vs. during the regular season where you don't have as much time to prepare, or whatever it is. Whereas if you go into a game where you're prepped for a regular starter, and either the game goes long or the starter gets killed and the long man comes in, switching from regular pitching to the knuckleball seems to be a very hard change to account for.

So yeah; the short answer is, I'd rather have Byrd start game 4 and Wake in the bullpen. Wake's earned the start, don't get me wrong; but if you want to win the game, unless Wake is really on his game (which has never happened as a postseason starter), Byrd is (IMO) more likely to keep you in the game.

[Akiyama]

When was Dice-K's last performance @TB? Were Longoria, Upton, and Crawford all in the line-up? I remember at a time where all three were out.

[shieldsofwindurst]

When was Dice-K's last performance @TB? Were Longoria, Upton, and Crawford all in the line-up? I remember at a time where all three were out.

They were probably out, and regardless, they're on a goddamn tear at this point. They certainly don't show an inability to get the big hit in the postseason (unlike the Angels).

[Akiyama]

That's what I'm saying. I'm not sure if Dice-K faced TB at full strength in TB, because their line-up is completely different from then. With Upton and Crawford in their lineup, there's tooons of speed, and Longoria's pop with Pena behind him? Yeah. It's a tough line-up to go through, especially if you walk 7 in 10 innings.

[Viq]

When was Dice-K's last performance @TB? Were Longoria, Upton, and Crawford all in the line-up? I remember at a time where all three were out.

Sept. 15 was his last start in Tampa. Longoria played, but was hit by a pitch in his first AB and left the game. The Rays got more hits off Matsuzaka in that game than they did in the July 2 game which featured all three of those players.

[shieldsofwindurst]

Honestly, I think there's adequate justification for either position; he certainly Can come through, and he certainly can pitch like he did against the Angels. All I can say for certain is that whatever he does do, it will define expectations for the rest of the playoffs (assuming this isn't his last start, no matter what happens). If he rises to the occasion, he casts off the mantle of not being able to come up big when it matters most; if he doesn't, then he'll be considered as being "lucky" at best for a long time to come, 18 wins or no 18 wins.

[Lockecole7]

Bye Lowe!

Edit: Bye Dodgers!

[shieldsofwindurst]

Heck of a game. Philly's gotta be real careful though 'cause they aren't hitting either.

[Abraxas]

Heck of a game. Philly's gotta be real careful though 'cause they aren't hitting either.

not many teams can hit Lowe, really. those low-zone pitchers are a hitter's bane. they played it right; wait it out, stay in the game and see the pitches get more up in the zone.

Hamels was on fire again. Nice to get game one. Today, we will really see which team is better.

[jmc]

i really hope the sox/rays doesnt goto 7 games......

Well, I hope it does for all the overtime I will recieve.....

then again, I hope it doesnt go far because...... of all the overtime i'll be "forced" to work, and not being able to watch a single game.

[Akiyama]

I hope both series go seven games. We haven't had something like that in a while. I don't like sweeps/five games in a seven game series.

[Abraxas]

the winning team sure does

[Penthesilea]

BEAT LA

[Akiyama]

Brett Myers for the fucking win. 2-2 3RBI hahaha.