MLB '08 Season Discussion

[Cephius]

Meh, I kinda misread you based off of your whole dur if he won one more game he'd have a great year thing, which most people don't think like. As someone else said, there's only a handful of people who have managed to hit 300 wins, so yea that's a suitable benchmark if your other numbers are a bit shaky, Just like 500 homeruns could offset a shaky batting average in terms of a hall of fame vote.

No, no, no. Not the same. Not nearly the same. It's pretty frikkin' simple.

A home run is something you do. It requires to you have the ability to have perfect timing, and enough strength to hit a baseball a very long way. Most importantly, it doesn't have jack to do with anyone else but the player in question, which is why it is a fairly decent stat to judge a hitter by. (I'd argue that OPS should weigh into it more than it does, but whatever)

A win is a stupid stat that gets a lot of weight because its called a "win". It can give too much or too little credit to how well a pitcher performs, based on the actions of the pitcher's teammates. If Carl Pavano goes out and pitches 5 innings of 8 run ball, but the Yankees score 12 runs in the first inning, Mr. Pavano gets a win. If Johan Santana pitches 8 innings of 1 run ball, but the Mets do not score any runs, Santana gets a loss. Is Pavano better than Johan?

I know that's an extreme example, but the fact that it can occur (look at how many times the Met bullpen blew wins for Johan last year) on a number of scales should tell you something. On top of that, it should be obvious that hitters are beasts in modern baseball, and that the complete game is all but extinct. It was more prevalent back in the day, when pitchers had more control over their destiny (but wins were still a stupid stat then, too) and yet theres no way to adjust wins for the time period like you can with ERA and other stats.

How many more wins do you think Tim Lincecum would have had this year if he played for a better offensive team than the Giants? Lets say 5. Lets say he plays the next 15 years for the Giants, averaging a 3.50 ERA and 200 Ks a year, and they don't get any better offensively. Expand it out, maybe he gets 60 less wins than he would have if he played for a better team. Does that mean he doesn't belong in the hall of fame? The fact that I can bring up this stupid-yet-believable situation should throw up red flags.

And damn you for making me write this much about how wins are a stupid pitching metric.

[fren.]

Sure Lowe is 36 and his contract would take him to his 40s, but uh.. isn't Jamie Moyer like 46? Didn't he just sign a 2 year deal? Last I checked, 16-7 at that age is pretty damned good. Lowe could probably put up the same numbers, especially with his crazy ground ball rates. That and it's not like he's coming to be a #1 or #2. He'd be a 3/4 at best probably.

Moyer's making 8mil per for two years; Lowe with Boras being his agent is probably gonna get 17-18 per. His groundball rates are obscene, but so is the AL East.

Speaking of Hall of Famers; Glavine is fucking overrated, Moose has better stats across the board (check out Galvine's K/BB splits) I guess it helps playing for a "dynasty" that only won one ring

[Melena]

A win is a cumilation of many stats per game. If a pitcher doesn't work enough innings, gives up too many hits/runs, etc they are not going to get a win. If a pitcher is good enough, they are going to get the wins. It's not an end all, but stat but should and is used as a baromoter of overall success over an entire career. Yes there's luck in it, just like there's luck with any baseball stat, but it's by no way means it's a stupid stat. That is why they give you no decisions if your bullpen blows a win for you, so it doesn't fuck up your individual winning %, just like if your team causes an error and the runner ends up scoring, it doesn't fuck up your ERA. Every stat is important when deciding if someone deserves to get in, and some weigh more heavily then others.

[Akiyama]

Moyer's making 8mil per for two years; Lowe with Boras being his agent is probably gonna get 17-18 per. His groundball rates are obscene, but so is the AL East.

Speaking of Hall of Famers; Glavine is fucking overrated, Moose has better stats across the board (check out Galvine's K/BB splits) I guess it helps playing for a "dynasty" that only won one ring

Yeah. Moose also won 20 games once in his entire career and uh.. how many Cy Youngs? Oh right. Also, last I checked, K/BB ratio wasn't everything for a pitcher. He was never a power pitcher in his career. He was just a stable guy where you knew what you were expecting going in. That is until he went to New York.

Also, Braves didn't even have a dynasty. =( They had a monopoly on the NL West/East for a long time, lol. That was about it. First Round exits for the win! I guess as a Yankee fan, you know how that feels now, huh?

[Trichocyst]

So Raul Ibanez will be #29 for the Phillies. After the Phillies won the world series I convinced my old man to get me a world series jersey. So I got "Holmes 29" on the back instead of getting a player since they won game five on my birthday (October 29th) and nobody was using it, plus it was a good conversation piece. And now ... Grrrr. Ibanez.

[Kyo]

Yeah. Moose also won 20 games once in his entire career and uh.. how many Cy Youngs? Oh right. Also, last I checked, K/BB ratio wasn't everything for a pitcher. He was never a power pitcher in his career. He was just a stable guy where you knew what you were expecting going in. That is until he went to New York.

Also, Braves didn't even have a dynasty. =( They had a monopoly on the NL West/East for a long time, lol. That was about it. First Round exits for the win! I guess as a Yankee fan, you know how that feels now, huh?

Beat me to it and <3

[fren.]

Yeah. Moose also won 20 games once in his entire career and uh.. how many Cy Youngs? Oh right. Also, last I checked, K/BB ratio wasn't everything for a pitcher. He was never a power pitcher in his career. He was just a stable guy where you knew what you were expecting going in. That is until he went to New York.

Wins and Cy Youngs? you can do better than that. K/BB isn't everything, but I used it to compare the two.

-Glavine pitched 851 more innings than Moose, but Moose had 206 more strikeouts. Hell, he even walked 715 fewer batters.
-Glavine benefited from pitching in the NL his entire career, while Moose pitched in the AL East.
-Moose spent his prime years with a shitty Orioles team (1998-2000) while Glavine spent three years with a shitty Mets team in his late 30's. So the difference between their amount of wins could easily pointed to that.

I could have summed it up with this;

Moose ERA+ 123
Glavine ERA+ 118

Moose was the better pitcher in the harder league.

First Round exits for the win! I guess as a Yankee fan, you know how that feels now, huh?

No, but I do know how it feels to have an actual dynasty and a team that probably won't finish close to the cellar for the next 5 years

[Akiyama]

Wins and Cy Youngs? you can do better than that. K/BB isn't everything, but I used it to compare the two.

-Glavine pitched 851 more innings than Moose, but Moose had 206 more strikeouts. Hell, he even walked 715 fewer batters.
-Glavine benefited from pitching in the NL his entire career, while Moose pitched in the AL East.
-Moose spent his prime years with a shitty Orioles team (1998-2000) while Glavine spent three years with a shitty Mets team in his late 30's. So the difference between their amount of wins could easily pointed to that.

I could have summed it up with this;

Moose ERA+ 123
Glavine ERA+ 118

Moose was the better pitcher in the harder league.



No, but I do know how it feels to have an actual dynasty and a team that probably won't finish close to the cellar for the next 5 years

Ahh, Yankee fans. How I love thee. You guys are just about as bad as Cowboy fans and Notre Dame fans. Okay.. and Alabama fans.

Wins and Cy Young awards are some of the most important things when judging for a Hall of Fame career. Ask anyone. K/BB are important stats too along with the ERA and WHIP, but Wins and Cy Youngs trump them. Glavine at one time or another was one of the better pitchers of his era in the steroid era. He was also one of the most dominant lefties around. Moose for a while was a power pitcher. Glavine has NEVER been a power pitcher, yet he won 35 more games.

Are you really going to point to the whole team for a difference in 35 wins? So Glavine played for one of the more dominant regular season teams in the modern times. You don't think his actual pitching ability attributed more to his wins than his team giving him the run support? So what if Mussina pitched for the Orioles when they blew. A true stud pitcher can overcome shitty teams. Look at Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee for evidence of that. Sure you can throw out your numbers about how he has a couple hundred more strikeouts and less walks. In the end, it doesn't matter. Glavine has 305 wins, Mussina has 270. Glavine won two Cy Youngs, Musinna won none. Gotta remember this is in the time where Maddux and and Smoltz were also great, along with up and coming Pedro Martinez, and some other great pitchers of that time. That and as I said... the steroid era. One more interesting stat -- Mussina led the AL in wins once, while Glavine did it five times.

Also, the NL wasn't the total bitch of the AL in the 90's like they have been lately. Don't throw that "He pitched in the tougher AL East" shit at me. The NL was a lot closer to the AL in terms of powerhouse teams than they have been as of late. I'm not saying the NL or AL were leaps and bounds above one another, but I'm saying "Well Mussina pitched in the much tougher AL" just doesn't stand here.

Curious. If Mike Mussina did not pitch for the Yankees, would you be arguing his case? I admit. I think Mike Mussina is a borderline HoFer right now. He's in the same boat as Curt Schilling to me, and is right on the edge. That's my opinion. 300 wins for pitchers is what the 500 HR plateau used to be for hitters.

And to finish off, I can't argue the dynasty comment. You'd have to be stupid to argue that the Braves had more of a dynasty than the Yankees, haha. Both the Braves and Yankees were free spenders in the early to mid 90s, but when Turner sold the Braves, their ability to spend on every free agent that is any good went down the drain. Before the last few years, I'd be worried about the Yankees farm system. With this off-season, it seems they gave up on it just a bit. =P Still. Until the Yankees advance past the first round again, let's not talk about the playoffs. I know the Braves are struggling to finish at .500. Don't need to be reminded. We just need smarter guys in the head office.

[archibaldcrane]

Well to defend Furcal, I do think he's a way better fielder than that NLCS showed, lol. I'm gonna harp on this deal all day though. God damn the Braves are stupid.

I assume you're singing "Oh Happy Day" now, eh Aki?

[fren.]

Ahh, Yankee fans. How I love thee. You guys are just about as bad as Cowboy fans and Notre Dame fans. Okay.. and Alabama fans.

Haha, that's random. So, me saying Moose was a better pitcher than Glavine equates to me being as bad as a Cowboys fan?

Wins and Cy Young awards are some of the most important things when judging for a Hall of Fame career. Ask anyone. K/BB are important stats too along with the ERA and WHIP, but Wins and Cy Youngs trump them. Glavine at one time or another was one of the better pitchers of his era in the steroid era. He was also one of the most dominant lefties around. Moose for a while was a power pitcher. Glavine has NEVER been a power pitcher, yet he won 35 more games.

Again, Glavine won 35 more games, but he also started 146 MORE GAMES.

Are you really going to point to the whole team for a difference in 35 wins?

Why not? Moose had an ERA+ over 120 in '99 and 2000 and only won 24 games (13 and 11) you don't think a team that didn't suck ass would have helped him win at least 6-10 more?

So Glavine played for one of the more dominant regular season teams in the modern times. You don't think his actual pitching ability attributed more to his wins than his team giving him the run support? So what if Mussina pitched for the Orioles when they blew. A true stud pitcher can overcome shitty teams. Look at Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee for evidence of that. Sure you can throw out your numbers about how he has a couple hundred more strikeouts and less walks. In the end, it doesn't matter. Glavine has 305 wins, Mussina has 270. Glavine won two Cy Youngs, Musinna won none. Gotta remember this is in the time where Maddux and and Smoltz were also great, along with up and coming Pedro Martinez, and some other great pitchers of that time. That and as I said... the steroid era. One more interesting stat -- Mussina led the AL in wins once, while Glavine did it five times.

You keep harping on about wins; Moose won 19 twice, 18 three times and he would have won 20+ in 1994 if it weren't for the strike shortened season (check that season out, he was dominant except for one month)

Curious. If Mike Mussina did not pitch for the Yankees, would you be arguing his case?

Why is this relevant?

I admit. I think Mike Mussina is a borderline HoFer right now. He's in the same boat as Curt Schilling to me, and is right on the edge. That's my opinion. 300 wins for pitchers is what the 500 HR plateau used to be for hitters.

Schilling is a lock, Moose isn't. I watched Moose before he even came to the Yankees and the Orioles bullpen fucked him over royally, he should easily be a three-time 20 game winner.

And to finish off, I can't argue the dynasty comment. You'd have to be stupid to argue that the Braves had more of a dynasty than the Yankees, haha. Both the Braves and Yankees were free spenders in the early to mid 90s, but when Turner sold the Braves, their ability to spend on every free agent that is any good went down the drain. Before the last few years, I'd be worried about the Yankees farm system. With this off-season, it seems they gave up on it just a bit. =P Still. Until the Yankees advance past the first round again, let's not talk about the playoffs. I know the Braves are struggling to finish at .500. Don't need to be reminded. We just need smarter guys in the head office.

The dynasty comment I made two posts ago was a joke.

Edit: Now that I look back on it, the '94 season was fucking absurd.

-Matt Williams was on pace for 60+ homers
-The Expos were the second best team in baseball behind the Yanks.
-Thomas and Bagwell were complete fucking monsters and would finished with an OPS+ over 200
-Maddux was on pace for his highest ERA+
-and Tony Gwynn was 3 hits away from .400

[Cephius]

*rips hair out*

Just because the old farts that are the writers who vote people into the HoF think that wins are everything and the other stats aren't "real" or "good enough" or "the only thing the matters (ie, wins)" doesn't mean you have to think that way too. ARGH

WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC

[Akiyama]

*rips hair out*

Just because the old farts that are the writers who vote people into the HoF think that wins are everything and the other stats aren't "real" or "good enough" or "the only thing the matters (ie, wins)" doesn't mean you have to think that way too. ARGH

WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC

I don't think that way because writers think that way. I think that way because I'm smart. Again. If Glavine wasn't a Brave most of his career, I'd still defend his Hall of Fame career. If Mussina wasn't a Yankee, I don't think you guys would defend him. Being a fan of a certain team, therefore, a fan of certain players sometimes clouds people's judgement about said player. To me, 300 wins for Glavine sort of erases that, especially during the era he pitched. If we took the name off of Moose's stats, looked at them, and picked HoF guys, I don't think he'd be in the HoF talks.

Also, I don't think Schilling is a lock. Whether people like it or not, I don't think he gets in on the first ballot because he's not a fan favorite. His Playoff resume is absurd (much like Smolt'z playoff resume), but I don't think he's a first ballot Hall of Famer. The fact that he wouldn't get in because people don't like him... it's a joke really. It's just the hard reality. Writers are fucking stupid, though. I agree. Schilling just hasn't done much in his career either. He's got 216 strikeouts, an absurd Playoff record, a ton of strikeouts, and has led the AL/NL in wins once each. That's it though. He's the exact same as John Smoltz minus the 154 saves. I think that's the difference between Smoltz and Schilling. Is Smoltz a HoFer to you guys?

And yeah. The 1994 season was ridiculous. I was looking up that stuff on a Wiki, lol.

/jumps for joy. Go Furcal! See Atlanta fans? He didn't want to come back to Atlanta because he missed Atlanta! He just hated Oakland. He accepts the SAME DEAL that the Braves gave him, except stays with LA. Hoorah.

[Cephius]

I don't think that way because writers think that way. I think that way because I'm smart. Again. If Glavine wasn't a Brave most of his career, I'd still defend his Hall of Fame career. If Mussina wasn't a Yankee, I don't think you guys would defend him. Being a fan of a certain team, therefore, a fan of certain players sometimes clouds people's judgement about said player. To me, 300 wins for Glavine sort of erases that, especially during the era he pitched. If we took the name off of Moose's stats, looked at them, and picked HoF guys, I don't think he'd be in the HoF talks.

Also, I don't think Schilling is a lock. Whether people like it or not, I don't think he gets in on the first ballot because he's not a fan favorite. His Playoff resume is absurd (much like Smolt'z playoff resume), but I don't think he's a first ballot Hall of Famer. The fact that he wouldn't get in because people don't like him... it's a joke really. It's just the hard reality. Writers are fucking stupid, though. I agree. Schilling just hasn't done much in his career either. He's got 216 strikeouts, an absurd Playoff record, a ton of strikeouts, and has led the AL/NL in wins once each. That's it though. He's the exact same as John Smoltz minus the 154 saves. I think that's the difference between Smoltz and Schilling. Is Smoltz a HoFer to you guys?

And yeah. The 1994 season was ridiculous. I was looking up that stuff on a Wiki, lol.

/jumps for joy. Go Furcal! See Atlanta fans? He didn't want to come back to Atlanta because he missed Atlanta! He just hated Oakland. He accepts the SAME DEAL that the Braves gave him, except stays with LA. Hoorah.

I don't care who Glavine or Mussina pitched for. And for the record, I don't think Mussina is/was a hall of famer. I just don't base it off of a retarding pitching stat like wins. Face it, if it wasn't called a "win", no one would fucking care about it. Mussina has nice stats across the board, but that's all they are. Decent. To be a hall of famer they should have to jump out at you. Like whoa, Pedro Martinez had a 214 ERA+ one year! That guy was amazing!

Moose doesn't have anything like that, and I'm of the belief that if you have to debate whether someone should be in the hall of fame, he shouldn't be. 300 wins is a nice number, but only because its round number and its sorta hard and it's called a "win" so if he has a lot of wins he must be a winner right! This frustrates me to no end. You are using stat that depends on the team more than a individual to judge a player for an individual accomplishment. You don't see what's wrong with that?

[Penthesilea]

*rips hair out*

Just because the old farts that are the writers who vote people into the HoF think that wins are everything and the other stats aren't "real" or "good enough" or "the only thing the matters (ie, wins)" doesn't mean you have to think that way too. ARGH

WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC
WINS ARE A TERRIBLE PITCHING METRIC

While it might be a terrible metric overall, in this case it isn't. In Glavine's 5 20+win years, he's pitched 27 complete games, 13 of which were shut outs. So out of 101 wins those seasons HE contributed the whole game 27 times, and I'd say a 10%-shut out rating in winning games is pretty damn decent.

[Akiyama]

I really don't see what's wrong with using Wins as an important number. I wasn't using it as the only number though. It's just an easier stat to follow. Why else do you think some Hall of Fame hitters get in based off of 500+ homers? As you said, it's just a round number.

Also, I know you weren't defending Mussina. I was talking about fren. Still though. Discounting a stat because it depends on the team in a team sport is sort of silly though. Let's just say "FUCK WINS! ERA, STRIKEOUTS, AND WALKS ONLY!" Gimme a break. :/

[Abraxas]

so i heard last night that Furcal has now decided he wants to stay in LA. anyone else see that?

[Akiyama]

Welcome to yesterday! Also today!

/jumps for joy. Go Furcal! See Atlanta fans? He didn't want to come back to Atlanta because he missed Atlanta! He just hated Oakland. He accepts the SAME DEAL that the Braves gave him, except stays with LA. Hoorah.

[archibaldcrane]

Shopping a signed offer sheet is sketchy as hell, but hey he got what he wanted.

[Abraxas]

hah.

I checked the page twice, Aki! i figured someone already said something, but i guess i missed it =(

you snuck it in in the bottom of one your loooong posts about pitchers. well camouflaged

[Akiyama]

I can't help I'm awesome. D: