Bonanza Winning Numbers Announced!

[tisquantum]

dude, it says how many winners there were (56 i think).

and when i worked for phone companies customer care, chinese and japanese ppl alike never wanted the number 4.

and yeah its a 1/100 chance to draw a double digit, and the fact that it just happens to be the most unlucky number (thus prob the least chosen number) just rings the bullshit alarm in my head.

ALSO im not gonna do the math here cause im not one of those math crime solvers from seseme street so i would just mess it up. but, if you look in the original thread about the bonanza you can see lots of calculations there. the most legit looking one showed that with 1 number drawn there would be about 50-100 grand prize winners + an exponential amount of winners in the other tiers.

yeah that sounds like alot, but after 6+ years... i dont think its unrealistic.



plus....


im just finding every way to complain because i was 1 digit off from tier 1 win on 2 marbles. both number being off were on second slot from the left, so they would have net me t-3 wins had SE only picked one number

[blev]

http://i134.photobucket.com/albums/q...630_143005.png

edit: i'm no punk bitch!

[TaruMortis]

EXP scrolled on a mule rofl. So where can I buy one of those T-shirt again?

[RKenshin]

44 is unlucky in Japan too.

Can we change POIDH to SOIDH? As in, don't bitch about it being rigged unless you got the statistics to show that it was. Probability can be very counterintuitive and unless you can show mathematically that more people should have won, then quit yer paranoid delusional bitchin' at SE and go do an escort if you want your exp. scroll so badly.

Actually, statistics would be in favor of it being rigged.

I honestly don't give two shits if they rigged it or not, anyone whiney over not winning something needs to get slapped in the face with a math book. The odds of winning something good were extremely low to begin with, regardless of if you bought 10 marbles or 100. You entered this contest knowing this, and obviously everyone can't win. Same applies for 'they should've done the drawing this way.' It's their contest, they can do it anyway they want.

Anyway, I did some quick math earlier. Statistics show it to be more probable of them picking the least profitable number in each category than it being completely random (in my view of the results).

With a 1/10 chance of winning rank 1, and 837,417 rank 1 winners, that puts it at an estimated total of 8,374,170 marbles bought. Going off this number, keep in mind that it's basically 1/100, 1/1000, 1/10000, and 1/100000 for the next prizes.

So, statistically, the number of winners should be:

Rank 4: 83,741
Rank 3: 8,374
Rank 2: 837
Rank 1: 83

But, it really was a good amount lower in almost every category:

Rank 4: 60,461
Rank 3: 6,854
Rank 2: 1,234
Rank 1: 56

Only exception being rank 2. Of course this math is a big estimate, in assuming that 837,417 was exactly 1/10th of the entries.

Obviously it's impossible to say with certainity it might've been hand-picked to avoid large amounts of inflation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing anyway, but statistically it would appear they may have.

But really again, who cares if it was anyway? Not like if you didn't get the winning number you won't get the money, which is all that really matters in this kind of contest.

[charly.asura]

450 tries, all chosen by the moogles:
37 rank 5
6 rank 4
1 rank 3...on one of Mike's mules of course.

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/i...31-52-56-1.jpg

We're considering getting the sword and leveling pld.

[Judai]

No proof, but supposedly someone who has been working on Claustrum won 100m on Ifrit! (not giving name out, cause idk them well enough~)

You also have to take into account all the people who didn't win jack shit when working the odds. I didn't win a single thing because of the way they did it, 30 Marbles and not even an exp scroll.

[Stiker]

http://i134.photobucket.com/albums/q...630_143005.png

edit: i'm no punk bitch!

This thread now has my attention.

[blev]

you're turned on by my moogle, aren't you?

[Sorrower]

No proof, but supposedly someone who has been working on Claustrum won 100m on Ifrit! (not giving name out, cause idk them well enough~)

greatest fucking waste of a rank 1 ever if thats the case. Random numbers pulled? I believe it...C'mon now this is SE. They wouldn't shit us, we're their best turd.

[travOtaku]

HAUTECLAIRE ON A MF MULE!

GDIA@#$#q@%$!#%#$%

Wow, winning a million gil really sucks. Your misfortune is astounding.

[aurik]

Ruke: another possibility that crossed my mind was that they purposely chose the most populous digit for xp scrolls and randomly selected the rest.

Because the other numbers are fairly consistent in being reasonably near to 7 x 10^rank

[Judai]

No proof, but supposedly someone who has been working on Claustrum won 100m on Ifrit! (not giving name out, cause idk them well enough~)

greatest fucking waste of a rank 1 ever if thats the case. Random numbers pulled? I believe it...C'mon now this is SE. They wouldn't shit us, we're their best turd.

I could be wrong, their Bazcom says Claustrum but I was just told maybe working on Gun now. idkz.

[Izzy]

http://i134.photobucket.com/albums/q...630_143005.png

edit: i'm no punk bitch!

hhahaahahha fucking awesome. Post response!

[Emorej]

Rank 3 and I think rank 1... lolLvl20 PLD

[Khamsin]

HAUTECLAIRE ON A MF MULE!

GDIA@#$#q@%$!#%#$%

Wow, winning a million gil really sucks. Your misfortune is astounding.

Time to level that mule's PLD.

[blev]

hopefully i don't win an "all expenses paid trip" to Mordion Gaol lol

[Mizango]

http://i134.photobucket.com/albums/q...630_143005.png

edit: i'm no punk bitch!

hhahaahahha fucking awesome. Post response!

Yes please! lol

[Indalecia]

HAUTECLAIRE ON A MF MULE!

GDIA@#$#q@%$!#%#$%

Wow, winning a million gil really sucks. Your misfortune is astounding.

Time to level that mule's PLD.

Honestly debating it. But I JUST finished leveling it on main. GDI

And who fucking cares about the mil? I wanted a gd haut.

[Grieverao]

SE won't recover tossed "winning" marbles lol.

Worth a shot XD

[Wiryu]

Am I terribly tired and reading this wrong, or did I just throw away all of my marbles after doing the contest incorrectly?

The Mog Bonanza is a number-guessing game in which you pick a five-digit number of your choice, kupo. Playing is simple! Purchase a Mog Bonanza marble (*1) from a Bonanza Moogle at designated areas (*2), then have the vendor inscribe your desired five-digit number on it, kupo. If you can't decide on a number, we moogles will be more than happy to pick one for you. The winning numbers will be announced at a later date, so sit tight and leave the rest to Lady Luck, kupo!

The conditions for winning are as follows:
Rank 1 prize: all five digits.
Rank 2 prize: last four digits.
Rank 3 prize: last three digits.
Rank 4 prize: last two digits.
Rank 5 prize: last digit.

http://wiki.bluegartr.com/Mog_Bonanza_2008

Yup, I did. I just got wtf owned by myself...