Bonanza Winning Numbers Announced!

[aurik]

The point is that even if the winning number came up EOEOE or OEOEO then SE would have changed it due to having too many winners.

I want to know when this myth became fact.

You're right, it's not fact. It would be pretty irresponsible for SE to actually allow too much or too little gil to enter the economy though.

Plus/minus a few billion gil would not be a huge issue. As I posted earlier in this thread, more gil has been banned since January than all the gil that entered the economy through this contest.

[Lexa]

I don't think they ever said moogles picked randomly, just that you "let the moogle pick for you".

If you can't decide on a number, we moogles will be more than happy to pick one for you.

The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.

Nowhere did it say the Moogle's number would be random.

[Lampoon]

Sore-fucking-losers. lol Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

[Lienna]

[quote=Lexa]

I don't think they ever said moogles picked randomly, just that you "let the moogle pick for you".

If you can't decide on a number, we moogles will be more than happy to pick one for you.

The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.

Nowhere did it say the Moogle's number would be random.[/quote:1mdb32yc]

oh and waaaaIzzyhurtmafeelingsmommymakehimstop

[Stiker]

I think the whole point of this PS2 conspiracy theory is moot to begin with. There's are some things I think SE absolutely didn't want no matter what:

1) No one to win grand prize - would look horrible on them, imagine the ZOMG RIGGED comments then
2) Too large of a prize distribution - inflation, not good
3) Too small of a prize distribution - too much gil removed from economy, deflation worsens

Now even if the PS2 stuff happens to be true, look at the prize distributions still. This was from earlier in the thread:

Actually, statistics would be in favor of it being rigged.

I honestly don't give two shits if they rigged it or not, anyone whiney over not winning something needs to get slapped in the face with a math book. The odds of winning something good were extremely low to begin with, regardless of if you bought 10 marbles or 100. You entered this contest knowing this, and obviously everyone can't win. Same applies for 'they should've done the drawing this way.' It's their contest, they can do it anyway they want.

Anyway, I did some quick math earlier. Statistics show it to be more probable of them picking the least profitable number in each category than it being completely random (in my view of the results).

With a 1/10 chance of winning rank 1, and 837,417 rank 1 winners, that puts it at an estimated total of 8,374,170 marbles bought. Going off this number, keep in mind that it's basically 1/100, 1/1000, 1/10000, and 1/100000 for the next prizes.

So, statistically, the number of winners should be:

Rank 4: 83,741
Rank 3: 8,374
Rank 2: 837
Rank 1: 83

But, it really was a good amount lower in almost every category:

Rank 4: 60,461
Rank 3: 6,854
Rank 2: 1,234
Rank 1: 56

Only exception being rank 2. Of course this math is a big estimate, in assuming that 837,417 was exactly 1/10th of the entries.

Obviously it's impossible to say with certainity it might've been hand-picked to avoid large amounts of inflation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing anyway, but statistically it would appear they may have.

But really again, who cares if it was anyway? Not like if you didn't get the winning number you won't get the money, which is all that really matters in this kind of contest.

tl;dr on quote - You have just a bit lower prize distribution statistically assuming absolutely complete, perfect world randomness.

IMO, this is hardly unfair considering the overall distribution. I honestly thought the prize distribution was going to be far lower than what we got across the board.

Now I highly doubt SE managed to get random numbering completely right on the PC and either intentionally/unintentionally screwed over PS2 users. Go see if your PS2 /randoms go EOE or OEO because I guarantee that their programmers just extended that function to include 2 more digits -- I cannot see SE making their coders take the time to specifically make another function that would check for PS2 users and then also create a new function to screw them over.

[Itchy]

Think I have a shot at winning Rank1 with my 00001 marble? I know it shouldn't work like that but it could reward me on accident...

[Izzy]

[quote=Lienna]

I don't think they ever said moogles picked randomly, just that you "let the moogle pick for you".

If you can't decide on a number, we moogles will be more than happy to pick one for you.

The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.

Nowhere did it say the Moogle's number would be random.

oh and waaaaIzzyhurtmafeelingsmommymakehimstop[/quote:14dfmb0w]
Who the fuck are you? Get the fuck out of here.

[Tarage]

By far one of the most amusing topics in Advanced today. Listening to the people who didn't win cry made me feel a lot better about not winning.

[Lienna]

[quote=Izzy]

I don't think they ever said moogles picked randomly, just that you "let the moogle pick for you".

If you can't decide on a number, we moogles will be more than happy to pick one for you.

The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.

Nowhere did it say the Moogle's number would be random.

oh and waaaaIzzyhurtmafeelingsmommymakehimstop

Who the fuck are you? Get the fuck out of here.[/quote:11ld1ioo]

I'm just your friendly neighborhood spiderman. What the hell is your problem anyways, haven't seen anyone be such a cunt since my ex-wife.

[friedfunk]

Some quick and dirty numbers, its been a while since my last stats class.

The odds of SE picking all of the rank2-5 winning numbers, none of them following alternating E/O is about 31%

Rank 4: 25 EO, 25 OE = 50/100 = .50 probability of not being alternating E/O

Rank 3: 5x5x5= 125 OEO, 125 EOE, 250/1000 alternating = .25 probability of alternating, so .75 probability of non-alternating

Rank 2: 5x5x5x5x2 = 1250/10000 alternating = .875 probability of non-alternating

Rank 1: 5x5x5x5x5x2 = 6250/100000 alternating = .9375 probability of non-alternating

Since all of the winning numbers were non-alternating, the probability of SE doing this randomly is .5*.75*.875*.9375= .3076

[Klain]

By far one of the most amusing topics in Advanced today. Listening to the people who didn't win cry made me feel a lot better about not winning.

Agreed.

[MisterBob]

[quote=Izzy]

I don't think they ever said moogles picked randomly, just that you "let the moogle pick for you".

If you can't decide on a number, we moogles will be more than happy to pick one for you.

The winning number will be randomly determined in a strictly supervised process.

Nowhere did it say the Moogle's number would be random.

oh and waaaaIzzyhurtmafeelingsmommymakehimstop

Who the fuck are you? Get the fuck out of here.[/quote:myivtmtk]

Nah, he's kinda right. You're being really whiny here, and the all caps/massive bolding you are doing often just makes it look like you're about to break down into tears.

[Izzy]

Nah, he's kinda right. You're being really whiny here, and the all caps/massive bolding you are doing often just makes it look like you're about to break down into tears.

Why does no one appreciate shit stirring anymore Q_Q

[MisterBob]

Nah, he's kinda right. You're being really whiny here, and the all caps/massive bolding you are doing often just makes it look like you're about to break down into tears.

Why does no one appreciate shit stirring anymore Q_Q

They appreciate it, but not when it borders on obnoxious.

[Lienna]

Nah, he's kinda right. You're being really whiny here, and the all caps/massive bolding you are doing often just makes it look like you're about to break down into tears.

Why does no one appreciate shit stirring anymore Q_Q

It's only funny when someone gets hurt.

PS- I am now thuroughly enjoying these mog bonanza threads, they are all over the place haha.

[Crysius]

1 Rank 3
6 Rank 5's

All on mules, none on main.

[Sorrower]

i'm sure if SE said somewhere that "hey guyz, on ps2 the numbers are "random" but not really, so you're odds at winning are a lot worse than someone on pc, but hey, dont qq lil guy, its just a game" id be a bit happier. i wasn't one of the assholes who lvl'd up like 10 mules to buy marbles and threw up a prayer. i played 10 on my main and 10 on my mule. both using ps2. thanks for the 4 exp scrolls, but i wouldnt have played at all knowing this. id rather have my 20k back, thnx. if i really cared about winning more, i would have lvl'd mule after mule like 90% of the ppl did who use these forums. unless they do it every month with just rare/ex items and make it truly random, this lottery shit can smd.

[Fredjan]

I guess I got lucky too...

1 Rank 2
1 Rank 3
1 Rank 5

All on my main.

[Sorrower]

I guess I got lucky too...

1 Rank 2
1 Rank 3
1 Rank 5

All on my main.

let me guess, on pc? lol congrats.

[quannum]

ps2 random number generator
i'm late, i know.