Ok - this is how to number crunch info from the stupid questions thread for skilling after 60

hurray for binomial probabilities and summing geometric series!

You can plug these into excel and see just how you might fare

Inputs
Desired skillups - How many skillups you want odds of receiving ( in .1s) so enter 10 if you want odds of getting an entire level
Your Level - duh
Synth Cap - duh - you could actually just put your natural level difference here and leave your level at 0
Startup synths - the number of synths you can make from farmed/bought materials
Expected Break Rate (0.0 to 1.0) - Enter this in yourself because of the various ways to adjust break rate
Expected % item loss (0.0 to 1.0) - Enter the percent of items you think you will lose to calculate item reuse
Estimated chance @ skilling up (.25 to .33) Enter what you think the odds are - the upcoming formula takes care of not skilling on breaks if you are more than 5 from cap

Ok - here are the formulas

Expected total synths - this uses the formula s/(1-r) to find the geometric series sum of reusing broken synths and reusing those broken synths etc...
=B4/(1-B5*(1-B6)) - if you put the above factors in order - otherwise it's
= Startup synth / (1- Expected Break Rate * ( 1- Expected Item loss))

Expected Successful Synths - this is used in case you are over 5 from cap
=B9*(1-B6)
= Expected total synth * (1- Break rate)

If you want expected total broken synths just subtract those 2

OK - binomial distributions - This will give you the odds of attaining at least your desired skillups (so if you want the odds of receiving 2 skillups on 5 tries it will sum the odds of receiving 2,3,4, or 5 skillups.

Excel binomial formula
=BINOMIDIST(number of successes, number of trials, probability of success, cumulative )

Odds of getting exactly or more of your desired skillups
=1-BINOMDIST(B1-1,IF(B3-B2 <6,B9,B10),B7,TRUE)

or 1- BINOMDIST(desired skillups -1 , IF(skillcap - skill < 6, (if true then number of trials = all synths broken or not) total synths, (if false - only successful synth) successful synth totals), estimated chance at skillup when eligible, TRUE (sums up from 0 to the first variable of the formula - thus the 1- BINOM...)

Hope this helps - and I bet this is really really ugly formatting.