25 pieces off Chariot Bosses

[Kirbyprime]

For my group, if Skadi 25 bodies were NPC'able, we'd be rich. >_>

[Shassira]

Wouldnt explain the skadi in silversea.


Drop rate is probably something like 30% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% for different set, thats why we get more of a kind in certain zone

30/20/15/15/10/10?

I'm unsure what you are trying to imply here, that a boss has a higher chance of droping certain set than other or certain individual pieces? If it's the later, i think you ignored the numbers I posted about our runs and the numbers the other person posted, which are a bit less.

Clearly in my gruop, despite there being spikes in some instances, the balance is fair. The spikes would easily cancel out with other group's luck where a spike would probably be something else.

For instance, people keep complaining "Bodb's Robe never drops ;_;", while on our set it's the second best tied with the Dastanas. The perception that it never drops comes from the fact that it's a wanted piece normaly and you will see very few of them go to waste. Ofcourse, there are flukes and someone could have been 0/20 on it. We have been 2/25 on Tsukikazu Haidate and before last drop we were 1/23 (that's number of kills).

If you mean there is a higher chance of a certain set droping, not mentioning individual pieces, this is quite obvious from looking at the loot pool. LAC has two hits for Skadi and 1 for the rest, BC has two hits for Usukane, AC has two hits for Marduk. LBC is the odd ball here, because his item pool is bigger (7 items as opossed to 6 on the rest), which gives two hits for Morrigan's and Ares'. Because of this, the chance for an individual piece to drop is also lower, obviously, making LBC drops "rarer" than the rest.

Seriously, real numbers suggest no external intervention, the rest is just blown up user experiences. People love to blow up numbers and say they are 0/100 on whatever drop and that X piece always drops for them, etc. Sometimes this is true, but in most cases it's just perception.

For us, the only time this becomes real is with the freaking Phobos's Cuirass and that silly Togi. Rest is very very normal. And yes, I open the runs normaly.

[Liav]

I really think it's random... when a LS member wants a 25 piece to finish their piece, sometimes it takes a while, then they start appearing lol. I believe it's just luck. :/

[Kaylia]

Clearly in my gruop, despite there being spikes in some instances, the balance is fair. The spikes would easily cancel out with other group's luck where a spike would probably be something else.

For instance, people keep complaining "Bodb's Robe never drops ;_;", while on our set it's the second best tied with the Dastanas. The perception that it never drops comes from the fact that it's a wanted piece normaly and you will see very few of them go to waste. Ofcourse, there are flukes and someone could have been 0/20 on it. We have been 2/25 on Tsukikazu Haidate and before last drop we were 1/23 (that's number of kills).

If you mean there is a higher chance of a certain set droping, not mentioning individual pieces, this is quite obvious from looking at the loot pool. LAC has two hits for Skadi and 1 for the rest, BC has two hits for Usukane, AC has two hits for Marduk. LBC is the odd ball here, because his item pool is bigger (7 items as opossed to 6 on the rest), which gives two hits for Morrigan's and Ares'. Because of this, the chance for an individual piece to drop is also lower, obviously, making LBC drops "rarer" than the rest.

Seriously, real numbers suggest no external intervention, the rest is just blown up user experiences. People love to blow up numbers and say they are 0/100 on whatever drop and that X piece always drops for them, etc. Sometimes this is true, but in most cases it's just perception.

For us, the only time this becomes real is with the freaking Phobos's Cuirass and that silly Togi. Rest is very very normal. And yes, I open the runs normaly.

But everyone get that "silly togi" a lot. I doubt the drop rate is even, maybe not as much as I said, but it wouldnt surprise me.

[cdgreg]

F that 25 togi, I had the morr legs 35 for about 6-8 months until bodb's finally dropped. I'd say I was something along the lines of 1/15ish on the 25. Every kill was togi + something I swear =X

[Alibeemac]

We did Arra MB multiple times a while back for Marduk 25 Bodies for 2 people to finish and they took a few attempts to complete. We now have 5 unfinished Skadi pants and have had for months. Did Arra MB the other night... Got double Marduk 25 Body ~.~ Of course no one needed and went free lot for lowbie jobs <.< Where's the stupid Skadi pants ~.~ We are sick of spamming this MB

[sleekmotorwurkz]

Our last lbc = 2x phobos cuirass
our last lac = 2x phobos gauntlets

[Zubuis]

Our last 3 bosses

5 x Skadi, 1 Morrigans

Still dont think its even distribution

[Amele]

this whole thread was caused by the general failing of mankind being unable to emotionally comprehend random numbers.

[Aphelidia]

I would say that it seems like:

Morrigan (most rare) > Usukane > Marduk > Skadi = Ares (from rare to most common)

Any comments?

I personally havent done salvage for long, Ive only fought 2 chariots so far. The first dropped morri robe x2, second dropped usu feet... so.... seems pretty random to me.

[Lujei]

For my group, if Skadi 25 bodies were NPC'able, we'd be rich. >_>

This. The damned masks too, for that matter. And BC refuses to give us anything but Skadi hands, but fortunately(?) for us, the single Gyro gear is the only NM we can get to drop off of in SSR. And out of our last two LBCs, we've gotten 3 Skadi boots. We're practically begging for something else at this point.

[meson]

this whole thread was caused by the general failing of mankind being unable to emotionally comprehend random numbers.

^ Made me laugh.
Personally 0/12 on Bobd's Slops (all of which were while being 2/3). If truly a even drop rate among boss drops, there only a 1.2% of not getting any 1 item in 12 Zhaf clears.
Not a boss drop, but just reached the 0/50 mark for Macha Coat.

[Amele]

^ Made me laugh.
Personally 0/12 on Bobd's Slops (all of which were while being 2/3). If truly a even drop rate among boss drops, there only a 1.2% of not getting any 1 item in 12 Zhaf clears.
Not a boss drop, but just reached the 0/50 mark for Macha Coat.

this assumes that the drop rate on the second slot is the same as the drop rate on the first slot and that the two slots are independent. (they probably are but we don't really know) it might be worth trying to better analyze drop rates (ex: what frequency we all collectively see certain drops in certain slots) but it'd be a lot of work for little gain - basically all it would do is let people fine tune cost layouts for salvage events that are run via a formal loot system.

0/50 on the 35's doesn't seem unreasonable (if the rate is 5% then 0/50 is a slightly worse than 8% probability. if the rate is 2% then 0/50 is about a 36% probability)

[meson]

this assumes that the drop rate on the second slot is the same as the drop rate on the first slot and that the two slots are independent. (they probably are but we don't really know) it might be worth trying to better analyze drop rates (ex: what frequency we all collectively see certain drops in certain slots) but it'd be a lot of work for little gain - basically all it would do is let people fine tune cost layouts for salvage events that are run via a formal loot system.

0/50 on the 35's doesn't seem unreasonable (if the rate is 5% then 0/50 is a slightly worse than 8% probability. if the rate is 2% then 0/50 is about a 36% probability)

I did assume that. Its fits into my own personal experience too. I've seen 3 dbl drops in about 70+ boss kills. I would like to think that SE would be kind enough to add code to decrease probability of an item in the 2nd roll if it came up in the first, but...doubt it. Occam's razor and all.

I know 0/50 isn't far fetched, it's just utterly depressing. I've seen sigs and claims of far worse. 0/50 is btw my personal record (and I keep good record). My group has done several runs w/o me and they have also never seen the drop. A conservative estimate of my groups record is around 0/65+.

I think hard part about dealing with probabilities in this game is accepting that you don't roll all your dice at once. Facing the harsh reality that you have no better odds on your 51st kill versus than the noob that gets on his first is pure torture for the ego.

Did I mention I love this game?

[Amele]

every game is like that though. even older tabletop things (like roulette and craps). dice with memory aren't really random.

what you hate is that the random numbers in XI are low to constrain advancement; rather than the difficulty of the given fight being high to constrain advancement (the latter would be preferable to me. I'd rather have a fight I can't win 90% of the time and a 100% drop rate than a fight I can win 100% of the time and a 10% drop rate, even though the overall probability of earning the drop is the same.) but 'easy fights' is part of retaining a large player base - if a game is too hard people will stop playing.

[meson]

Hate is a strong word.
SE isn't dumb. The behaviors that are hardest to discontinue are the ones with reward systems based on variable-ratios.

[Kittyn]

every game is like that though. even older tabletop things (like roulette and craps). dice with memory aren't really random.

what you hate is that the random numbers in XI are low to constrain advancement; rather than the difficulty of the given fight being high to constrain advancement (the latter would be preferable to me. I'd rather have a fight I can't win 90% of the time and a 100% drop rate than a fight I can win 100% of the time and a 10% drop rate, even though the overall probability of earning the drop is the same.) but 'easy fights' is part of retaining a large player base - if a game is too hard people will stop playing.

But how do you make a difficult fight that you can only win 10% of the time? If it was set so that you automatically lose 90% of the time than we'd all still be complaining right? haha

Personally I feel the lvl 25 drop should not be EX. Thare are so many pieces wasted just because you can't give them to the right people. We're not even talking about useful finished pieces just 1/3 of a piece.

[Amele]

well, it's all a random number generator right? just set the damage and moves etc so that on average you would die/time-out/fail for some other reason X% (50/80/90) whatever.

the problem is, this requires tiering content in a way that SE has thus far refused to do (since you'd need better control over what kind of gear people would wear) - you can see this in games like WoW where some bosses are basically just a gear-check.

but as you said; if the bosses were too hard and we collectively lost 90% of the time (see: einherjar early on) we'd just bitch and moan and not do the content.

[Therin]

Our last LBC dropped 25 Usu legs and 25 Ares body. Both finished pieces. :D

[rithridan]

Seriously, the way 25s work is so much better then 35s. Everytime you beat a salvage boss you get 2 25s which may or may not be the ones that you require. However like some groups are already doing (the ones who upgrade a new relic every other week) you can always take people who do need that 25 and sell/give it away to make someone happy.

Compare this to the fucked up way you get 35s, you can do the same thing a hundred times and still come out empty handed. Just look at the numbers people crank out when complaining about their lack of [instert drop]. Its insane that you need to do 50 SSR runs to get 1 maybe 2 Macha's Slops not to mention forcing you to ignore Freya's Gloves NM and Enlil's Crackows NM. Instead, when you killed 50 SSR bosses you would have 100 25 pieces 100% of the time. Yeah its so much better to to kill 4-5 NMs for absolutely nothing at all for the zillionth time.