25 pieces off Chariot Bosses

[Kaylia]

this whole thread was caused by the general failing of mankind being unable to emotionally comprehend random numbers.

Replace "random number" by "Square enix's random number generator". Statistic can't explain everything, and poor seeding is unlikely in certain scenario. That's why people will try to find other explanation.

[Amele]

Replace "random number" by "Square enix's random number generator". Statistic can't explain everything, and poor seeding is unlikely in certain scenario. That's why people will try to find other explanation.

observation bias, emotional bias, etc. this has nothing to do with SE's random number generator.*



*Occam's Razor. most people don't know how to work with random numbers to begin with; so why do we need to complicate this with a special case?

[Loziel]

Screw SE and screw any QQ in arrapago. I hate them all equally.

[meson]

Just wanted to update this QQ thread with some more QQ. I am now 0/15 on zhaf boss, a P(.004) making same assumption as before. Also 0/7 on lbc to finish robe. Went 1/59 for macah coat, group's total is 1/75+ and we haven't seen a qq since.

[Ayn]

what you hate is that the random numbers in XI are low to constrain advancement; rather than the difficulty of the given fight being high to constrain advancement

Agreed.

It's pretty depressing when you're awesome at killing something and you still get shafted on drops.

I know Limbus falls under the same system for the most part, but at least with that I can have a sense of "This will be finished in the foreseeable future, when people have most Homam drops they want".

Salvage is more like Qiqirns, Fomors, Gears, and Chariots standing around you, pointing, and yelling "WE'RE TORMENTING YOUUUUUUU!"

[Therin]

Agreed.

It's pretty depressing when you're awesome at killing something and you still get shafted on drops.

I know Limbus falls under the same system for the most part, but at least with that I can have a sense of "This will be finished in the foreseeable future, when people have most Homam drops they want".

Salvage is more like Qiqirns, Fomors, Gears, and Chariots standing around you, pointing, and yelling "WE'RE TORMENTING YOUUUUUUU!"

Yep. I feel like the better your group is at Salvage, the shittier the drop rates are, while there's a ton of people running around in Ares or Usukane pieces who got it on their first/second/third try with a shitty group.

We're 0/30 on all of the SSR 35's, 0/80ish on the bees, 0/20+ on Macha's Coat and so on and our group has two Spharai MNKs and so we pretty much can rape an entire Salvage zone in a run. But that doesn't matter, because in like 6 months of running we've only actually seen five 35's (one Ares feet, one Ares body, one Marduk body, one Usu legs, one Usu hands).

[Loziel]

Well my public lambasting of Arrapago and its QQ's has worked. after much spamming it dropped my Deimoss last weekend and tonight we finally saw our First Macha's, Mere hours after I mocked that it doesnt exist. Arrapago can suck a fat one now. not going there again for a while. Now we just need lbc to put out some non-lol 25's

[Ayn]

As you fight LBC, you can ponder which is worse:

Having the 35s, then getting constantly screwed on the 25s
Or having the 25s, and never seeing the 35s?

But I hope your LBC runs go smoothly and you get the drops you want ASAP, hate fighting that one the most.

[Therin]

hate fighting that one the most.

Same. D:

Just annoying having to worry about the gear shit, and knowing that if you skip the gears it still takes up extra time anyway, and can be a huge bitch if it decides to be spammy with homing missle.

[FailureMidgard]

Yep. I feel like the better your group is at Salvage, the shittier the drop rates are, while there's a ton of people running around in Ares or Usukane pieces who got it on their first/second/third try with a shitty group.

We're 0/30 on all of the SSR 35's, 0/80ish on the bees, 0/20+ on Macha's Coat and so on and our group has two Spharai MNKs and so we pretty much can rape an entire Salvage zone in a run. But that doesn't matter, because in like 6 months of running we've only actually seen five 35's (one Ares feet, one Ares body, one Marduk body, one Usu legs, one Usu hands).

Out of curiosity, how many runs per week do you do?

Also Meson, that is only the probability of not seeing the 1 drop you want. The chances of not seeing one of the drops is 6 times that. And furthermore, (at least for the 2 groups I've been in), as you chain-run whatever chariot for the 25 you currently need, everyone else in the shell gets all the 25s they need saved up for when they get the 35 drop. Later, that 35 drops, and you don't have to run anything at all. It works out in the end.

And Amele is pretty much right, I would be more concerned with SE's rng if people were not complaining. If it were not streaky, it would not be truly random (though, nothing to say that random is the best system).

For 25s, there is a 97% chance that after 5 runs you have not seen 1 of the items. If after 5 runs, you have seen all 6 drops, you are extraordinarily lucky. Random is nowhere near analogous to even -except- when you look at a very large sample size, which, nobody here is looking at.

[Kyo]

When I was trying to get my 25 for usu feet the run before we had gotten 3 35's and decided to do SSR run to get corresponding 25's, the other 2 got theirs that run, took me 13 times after to get mine. So I agree, getting 25's ispossibly more annoying than getting the 35's.

[Guitarman]

Just started our salvage group. Went 2/2 on bodb's robe suprisingly. Glad i dont have to deal with that butthole boss LBC for a long time. He and his Inertia Stream + Homing Missle combo can go right to the 6th circle of hell. (unbind potion, plz, SE btw).

Shit always comes up even in the end though. I know we're gonna get dicked by another drop to make up for our good luck on LBC, and i'm guessing it's going to be my 35 usu feet, which would go in line with my well documented bad luck.

So I agree, getting 25's ispossibly more annoying than getting the 35's.

Yet, try to post a 25 drop in the drop thread, you'd get laughed out of there.

[Lyla]

In our group we've been spamming Arrapago Remnants because our WHM, 1st in points, is 2/3 on Marduk Body.

15 Armored Chariot kills.
13 Ea's Tiaras.
0 Ea's Doublet.

It's painful; words can't describe. We just keep doing it and only Tiaras drops. Tiara this, Tiara that, double Tiara...

[Lordwafik]

I don't think it's as random as I once thought. Considering the amount of groups that get Skadi so much more often than anything, and no, not just groups "Focusing on the negative", just in general, I'm inclined to believe that bosses have more chance to drop one over the other.

For us it's been :
Zhayolm Boss : Usukane Mask
SSR Boss : Skadi anything
Bhaf Boss : Phobos Mask / Eas Dastanas
Arra boss : Phobos Sabatons

[Black]

need more Tsukikazu jinpachi ; ;, been setting on kabuto from AGES

[Aurara]

In our group we've been spamming Arrapago Remnants because our WHM, 1st in points, is 2/3 on Marduk Body.

15 Armored Chariot kills.
13 Ea's Tiaras.
0 Ea's Doublet.

It's painful; words can't describe. We just keep doing it and only Tiaras drops. Tiara this, Tiara that, double Tiara...

we'll give you our ea bodies for your bodb pigaches ._.

[Not Kuno]

Just wanted to update this QQ thread with some more QQ. I am now 0/15 on zhaf boss, a P(.004) making same assumption as before. Also 0/7 on lbc to finish robe. Went 1/59 for macah coat, group's total is 1/75+ and we haven't seen a qq since.

We have the same problem. We've done sooo many Zhay bosses and still never seen a single usu head drop. There's always usu body, or double usu body, but fucking head never drops. And zhay boss sucks because it's harder to hit up everything and do boss.

[Shassira]

Just felt like adding myself to the general cry about drop rates and the reward system in general that Salvage presents. I really have a hard time accepting that NMs like Dekka that we kill religiously twice a week simply won't drop at all in almost a year of Salvage. Ridiculous.

At this point all I would've liked is for Salvage to have some kind of point system where after X amount of runs you could claim a piece fragment of your choice at the NPC. I don't mind that people are super lucky and get their crap 1/1 and never come back to an area, but I do mind the other extreme. Increasing chances based on amounts of kills is aparently too much to ask.

Also:

Yep. I feel like the better your group is at Salvage, the shittier the drop rates are, while there's a ton of people running around in Ares or Usukane pieces who got it on their first/second/third try with a shitty group.

This line of though actualy has merit, but i'm pretty sure the cause/effect order is the inverse. You are good because your drop rate is crap.

[FailureMidgard]

I don't think it's as random as I once thought. Considering the amount of groups that get Skadi so much more often than anything, and no, not just groups "Focusing on the negative", just in general, I'm inclined to believe that bosses have more chance to drop one over the other.

For us it's been :
Zhayolm Boss : Usukane Mask
SSR Boss : Skadi anything
Bhaf Boss : Phobos Mask / Eas Dastanas
Arra boss : Phobos Sabatons

I think it is random, the more people complain the more I am convinced that it is random. We have seen exactly 1 Ares Boots (on our last kill) off Arrapago Chariot. We don't have a 35 to match it yet, but the 1 person that wanted it just got it. For Bhaflau, we did see Ea's Dastanas a bit, but we rarely saw Phobos Mask. We actually got pretty even drop except for Macha's Coat (which is the drop we were after), which took us forever to see.

For SSR, "Skadi anything" makes me wonder...you realize that there are 2 skadi drops and 4 non-skadi drops there. There's a ~45% chance to see at least 1 skadi drop each kill, with an 11% chance of seeing double skad. You -should- see more skadi, we definitely did.

Also, to the other poster, we've seen more Ea's Doublets than tiaras.

Fact remains, the people posting are generally complaining/agreeing, and nobody has the sample size needed to accurately guess at drop rates.

[meson]

We have the same problem. We've done sooo many Zhay bosses and still never seen a single usu head drop. There's always usu body, or double usu body, but fucking head never drops. And zhay boss sucks because it's harder to hit up everything and do boss.

Just the other day we got two. I was on quartermaster too as I am the only one left in my group that needs a zhaf boss drop and time was running short. I guess I'll have a emp pin -3 if I decide to lvl mnk.
Zhaf 5/6/boss runs can be a pain and mostly because our biggest factor on success is how often frogs use chorus. We can be 5-10 minutes ahead of our curve and then sorry kids, 6f madame decided she didn't want to use magic hammer and frog cheer tonight.

Failure, can you show how you go 97%?

edit: 0/16 after tonight