Dynamis and Limbus Get a Makeover! (08/04/2008)

[Therin]

There isn't really a "supply pool" of Wootz Ingots. They keep getting turned in.

[Alistaire]

There isn't really a "supply pool" of Wootz Ingots. They keep getting turned in.

So it's a consumable. Precious gems/metals have been consumables since FF1.

[Starr]

Native DW is just what THF needs to compete with other melee and for DNC to be better at what it's supposed to do, Berserk making you hit for 0 less therefore gaining TP faster.

[Miraun]

The changes being made to dynamis will have absolutely no impact on the demand of old relics. Anyone claiming so didn't have a good econ teacher in high school. Changes to dynamis will only impact supply.
The introduction of Nyzul relics will, however, have an impact on the demand of old relics and currency because they are a competitive product.

I need to chime in from my lurking to comment on how inaccurate this statement is.

You made one big jump at the beginning that needs to also be explicitly stated. The decrease in the cost of dynamis will result in an increase in supply of currency. This is under the assumption that there was demand for dynamis that was not fulfilled with hourglasses being set at 1m each. This lack of demand for dynamis at 1m can also be applied to dynamis shells looking to split run, where I believe we all agree that we will see the change in player behavior that will increase dynamis runs.

If we assume that the player base will alter their habits, and that the reduction of price will follow the economic model of drawing a larger player base into dynamis, AND that dynamis will be more often entered, and not just current runs being filled to their 64 capacity, THEN that will lead to an increase in currency.

An increase in currency supply with a consistant demand would result in a reduced price. This is based on the assumption that at a lower price for currency values, the amount of individuals upgrading relic items will be at a consistant value. This is where your statement is terribly flawed. Similiarly to all supply and demand curves, as we see prices decrease, we see the demand fluctuate accordingly to reflect the change. As prices on currency decrease, the demand for the currency will increase and stabilize the fluctuation. The demand increase will take place through either A) new relic upgraders or B) increased number of Relic-1 equipment pieces on the server relative to pre-update.

In an FFXI example, lets assumet that prices of currency are at 7k per 1-piece (arbitrary value). 1 week after the patch, after several new dynamis shells have poped up at random times, prices will drop to 3k per 1 piece as a result of the rapid influx to new currency on the market. Player base will respond, do some calculations and think to themselves, "Hey, that's a pretty cheap relic, I should upgrade!" Then once these new people enter the market, the price will stabilize slightly, and bring the currencies back up to... lets say 5kish. It's possible that they will fully recover to the 7k value, if the increased number of dynamis runs on the server is offset with enough new upgraders.

[Valisk]

The changes being made to dynamis will have absolutely no impact on the demand of old relics. Anyone claiming so didn't have a good econ teacher in high school. Changes to dynamis will only impact supply.

So are you saying that no new people (who otherwise wouldn't have) will not want a relic despite the raid price being cut in half? After this price drop I would like to throw my hat in the ring and get a relic. That right there nullifies your statement. Demand for relics WILL go up after this. It will still take the same amount of time sponsering, but will just essentially be half the cost.

[barber2006]

If you can snag 300 coins a run when you sponsor (and you wont unless you get singles and 100's in most cases) you are looking at 50 runs to complete a relic. And that's if your linkshell lets you sponsor EVERY SINGLE RUN. I haven't found a single dynamis ls on my server that will even come close to that. The closest was one that would let someone sponsor 1 out of every 8 runs. So in that situation you are looking at 400 runs (4 years) if you rely on only sponsoring. It is just not feasible to assume you can sponsor an entire relic unless you back your way into a group that has 20-30 people that don't mind bending over twice a week for you. There is no way around it, if you want a relic you will be buying rolanberry coins (or your linkshell will for you if you have an hnm shell that sponsors for members).


The demand will be the same. The supply will be the same. If someone wants to do dynamis in a group of 30 people it will cost them 33k now. In September it will cost 16k. Is a savings of 16k really going to make people flock to dynamis in droves? If you want to do dynamis you are already doing it.

There may be an influx from a few people with Blu, Cor, and PUP. But that may very well be offset by people getting what they want from dynamis with the increased drop rates and leaving. In the end if you can raise 100M for a relic you can raise 150M. Anyone who thinks they can get one if prices fall by 30% if they couldn't before is just out of their mind.

[Valisk]

Depends on your server I guess. I could start up a free dynamis shell right now I fund EVERY SINGLE raid. Provide a free chance to get AF2 and people will come. With the new af2 being released, it will be even easier to recruit people for cities and such.

[Xajii]

Depends on your server I guess. I could start up a free dynamis shell right now I fund EVERY SINGLE raid. Provide a free chance to get AF2 and people will come. With the new af2 being released, it will be even easier to recruit people for cities and such.

This is pretty much the concept that lets greedy leaders get their relics. It's all over Odin. "Hey, I'm the one paying for the glass so I lot all the money, INCLUDING the 100 money" as if it was all really going towards further runs.

Any handitard can decide to make an LS. It doesn't take severe skill to open up an online map and hand out pearls and pay for a glass.

[Miraun]

it's like the last 4 posts were all points I made in my longer post before them...

[Valisk]

This is pretty much the concept that lets greedy leaders get their relics. It's all over Odin. "Hey, I'm the one paying for the glass so I lot all the money, INCLUDING the 100 money" as if it was all really going towards further runs.

Any handitard can decide to make an LS. It doesn't take severe skill to open up an online map and hand out pearls and pay for a glass.

Greedy leaders? If you tell people you are funding the raids for currency and they agree to it then there shouldn't be a problem. There was a long ass thread about this not too long ago. Not sure why people are so butt hurt by people funding raids like the members are being decieved. If the coins are honestly going towards a relic then what are you complaining about? If the leader is a asshat who you think will screw over the members and make gil off the currency then don't fuckin join the shell, simple as that.

[Guitarman]

I'm very hopeful for a currency price drop. I really think it will, once the initial newness of the lower price wears off, and people realize its still not easy or cheap to upgrade. Quite a few will buy up currency around september - october, but im guessing after that time is when it'll sink in that not everyone will be able to see a relic through.

Still crossing my fingers the 2 maint we had were to allow instanced dynamis. Now THAT would lower prices for sure, and relieve the headache alot of shells go through trying to get the zone they want. A year ago I would've thought this would never happen, but lately the updates have gotten better and better, so who knows?

[meson]

You made one big jump at the beginning that needs to also be explicitly stated. The decrease in the cost of dynamis will result in an increase in supply of currency. This is under the assumption that there was demand for dynamis that was not fulfilled with hourglasses being set at 1m each. This lack of demand for dynamis at 1m can also be applied to dynamis shells looking to split run, where I believe we all agree that we will see the change in player behavior that will increase dynamis runs.

I don't think its a big jump to assume that supply goes up as cost of supply goes down.

An increase in currency supply with a consistant demand would result in a reduced price. This is based on the assumption that at a lower price for currency values, the amount of individuals upgrading relic items will be at a consistant value. This is where your statement is terribly flawed.

I did not make this assumption. At a lower price point, more transactions are made. This increase is not from an increase Demand but from a shift in the supply curve.

In an FFXI example, lets assumet that prices of currency are at 7k per 1-piece (arbitrary value). 1 week after the patch, after several new dynamis shells have poped up at random times, prices will drop to 3k per 1 piece as a result of the rapid influx to new currency on the market. Player base will respond, do some calculations and think to themselves, "Hey, that's a pretty cheap relic, I should upgrade!" Then once these new people enter the market, the price will stabilize slightly, and bring the currencies back up to... lets say 5kish. It's possible that they will fully recover to the 7k value, if the increased number of dynamis runs on the server is offset with enough new upgraders.

The price cannot go from 7k > 3k > 7k unless the supply curve also goes back to pre-update levels. Let's say there are currently 100 buyers buying the 100 items at 7k. Are you suggesting that there will now be 120 buyers buying the 120 items at 7k? Where did the extra 20 buys come from? There may be 120 buyers at 5k, but its already established that there are only 100 buyers at 7k.


There's a difference between saying there will be more demand and saying there will be a shift in the demand curve. I did not use clear enough language in my first post and I apologize. I'll rephrase. Updates to dynamis will alter the supply curve only. This will lower cost of currency. You can say this increases demand because it increases buyers that can afford it, but it does not change the demand curve.
Prices will go down, they will not re-stabilize to pre-update levels. This is of course just market speculation, make your own bets.

[Raithen]

Depends on your server I guess. I could start up a free dynamis shell right now I fund EVERY SINGLE raid. Provide a free chance to get AF2 and people will come. With the new af2 being released, it will be even easier to recruit people for cities and such.

While this is entirely possible, it is harder to retain members in your shell with this method. Even more so if you are almost exclusively running cities. As people get the relic armor they need and notice how few, if any, northlands zones you run, they will leave the shell. No currency, no armor, no incentive, no members.

[dawdr]

So THF/NIN currently gets DW2.

By this suggestion, THF/WAR would get DW or DW2, etc.

By what you're saying, THF/WAR with DW2 would be worthless cause they can just go /NIN and get DW2 anyway? Think about that. THF+/WAR+DW2+Berserk < THF+DW2? lol Of course THF/NIN = THF+DW2+shadows but the whole point of saying THF+/WAR+DW2 would be awesome was purely from an offensive standpoint.

Have to stay alive to be on the offensive, though. Innate Dual-Wield on Thief means getting two daggers when you're farming too-weak mobs with whatever subjob and that's about it.

Now, if Thief were to get Berserk instead...

[Sho]

The introduction of Nyzul relics will, however, have an impact on the demand of old relics and currency because they are a competitive product.

Dun agree with this part, everything else is ok tho. Although they'll be competitive "product," it won't impact Dyna relics as much-- they people that will want Relic will still want them.

[Delekii]

Have to stay alive to be on the offensive, though. Innate Dual-Wield on Thief means getting two daggers when you're farming too-weak mobs with whatever subjob and that's about it.

Now, if Thief were to get Berserk instead...

If thieves got innate dual weild 2 I cannot see very many thieves using /nin for much other than harder solo stuff, or if they dont trust their healer...

[Sho]

If thieves got innate dual weild 2 I cannot see very many thieves using /nin for much other than harder solo stuff, or if they dont trust their healer...

I tells you if BLU ever got DW2, I'd be subbing RDM for Fast Cast, Phalanx, SS and Enspells . Utsusemi is really a crutch for some jobs, dmg mitigation and evasion skill is ftw at times.

[LinktheDeme]

I don't think dynamis price will drop a whole lot because of the 500k price change it just means that the middle man will take a bigger profit for a while. The only thing that would lower price is the spectators telling people price will get lowered. So people have the attitude oh shit everyones saying price is gonna get cut so i gotta get rid of it fast. (This is really similar to actual economics btw)

My speculation on this is price will take a decent cut in the begining because people will speculate that it's going down alot so people will respond accordingly. Initially about a 35% price cut and after stabalization i think it'll stabalize at 15-20% lower than what it is currently. Unless supply increases as well demand has no real reason to rise unless people wanna start a gay undercutting war and the only reason people will start is because people have the kind of ZOMG SKY IS FALLING GET RID OF IT FAST attitude.

[Septimus]

I tells you if BLU ever got DW2, I'd be subbing RDM for Fast Cast, Phalanx, SS and Enspells . Utsusemi is really a crutch for some jobs, dmg mitigation and evasion skill is ftw at times.

Yes, that 8 damage reduction from subbed Phalanx with no natural enhancing skill is really going to do wonders for when a mob hits you for 50-80 damage or (much, much) more a pop. And you will only need a total of 144 MND to cap out that stoneskin from RDM sub, you can do that easily. And that 9 extra damage per swing from en-spells will really make you tear up the parser, provided of course that they aren't resisted, but we all know that anyone can sub BLM and nuke just as well as a main job without resists. And you are totally correct, your C- evasion skill is going to save you, who needs that bad old Utsusemi for reliable damage mitigation?

As we can see, Red Mage is the ideal support job for Blue Mage, anyone who says otherwise is completely delusional.

The representative from Sarcasm-land thanks you for your time.

[terranova]

10.0 on the sarcasm scale. (We shall call this the Septimus Scale).

This thread is a trip. Goes from talking about Dynamis prices, to talking about cor AF being ugly to blu QQing over refresh pieces, to THFs and BLUs deserving natural DW2.

Only at BG!