Your history is wrong in at least two cases: LBJ's win. LBJ never campaigned to leave Vietnam (that was actually why Nixon got elected in '68 ). LBJ got elected because a year earlier JFK was assassinated. Goldwater knew he never had a shot at winning and at one point even stated "They're not going to assassinate two Presidents in less than a year."
Also, I would say that Monica-gate had very little, if anything at all, to do with Bush getting elected in '00. Clinton had a very high approval rating when he left office (65% or something, if I remember correct) and not even the Bush campaign was linking Gore to anything that had to do with that, as they knew it wouldn't be taken seriously. The Bush campaign just ran a better (read: more divisive) race than Gore did.
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