BG College Football Pick Em / College Football Thread

[Byrd]

I did a calculation. Assuming that the USC computer number is not going to change, they would need a 1.018 score (which is, of course, impossible) from both human poll numbers to beat Texas' current .922 BCS score.

But the computer number for USC would change -- they could easily move ahead of both Oklahoma and the SEC loser in the computer polls. Texas has less ability to move up in the computer polls, as they are much closer to the top. If Texas average position jumped one spot to put them to .980, USC's could jump two spots to move them to .810. It would then be possible (although still unlikely) for them to jump over Texas via the human polls. Possible? Yes. But not at all likely barring some vast conspiracy.

[Drex]

Texas, Tech, and Oklahoma playing a 3-way game on a triangular field. One team gets the ball, the other two try to stop them. On punts, the two defending teams battle for the ball in a scrum. Winner goes to Big XII championship.

[Mizango]

Sounds like the XFL.

[octopus]

]If Texas average position jumped one spot to put them to .980, USC's could jump two spots to move them to .810.

Let's just say Texas' current BCS ranking remains the same (for ease of calculation's sake), and USC's computer number jumps up to .810. It would still require the two human poll scores to reach .978 for them to catch Texas to be #2.

In other words, it would require a near unanimous #1 in both polls to get USC to the BCS championship. I don't see that happening.

[Headspace]

Sounds like the XFL.

That was the best thing ever.

[Mizango]

No, the best thing ever is when "He hate me" Rod Smart played 3-4 seasons? For Carolina. He was awesome when he would take kick offs back to the house.

[Stiker]

But the computer number for USC would change -- they could easily move ahead of both Oklahoma and the SEC loser in the computer polls. Texas has less ability to move up in the computer polls, as they are much closer to the top. If Texas average position jumped one spot to put them to .980, USC's could jump two spots to move them to .810. It would then be possible (although still unlikely) for them to jump over Texas via the human polls. Possible? Yes. But not at all likely barring some vast conspiracy.

Pretty much the logic I'm going with here. If OU loses to Mizzou, OU's computer rating will take a nose dive. The SEC loser will also see a computer poll hit.

Current computer ratings:
Bama - .920 (3)
OU - .980 (1)
Texas - .940 (2)
Florida - .820 (6)
USC - .730 (8 )
Utah - .850 (5)
Texas Tech - .870 (4)
Penn State - .670 (9)

For the sake of this argument, let's assume Bama wins and Mizzou wins (both of which I have stated, I don't see happening). This will, without a doubt, negatively affect both Flordia and OU. In my opinion, OU will take quite a decent hit in this senario as the computers seem to love strength of schedule. In this case, Florida loses to what the computers see as the 3rd best team and OU loses to what the computers see as the 20th best team.

With that shaking out my guess at the computer polls would be:
1) Bama
2) Texas
3) Texas Tech
4) Utah
5) USC
6) OU
7) Florida
8 )Boise State
9) Penn State

This is assuming the hit against OU would be significant, and all other teams basically have little movement for not playing. In the case of USC, they gain another win, giving enough of a bump to overtake the hits Florida and OU take.

In this senario, you can take out the following teams: Texas Tech, Utah, OU, Florida, Bosie State, and Penn State as there will be no way the human polls will match up for these teams to help them. Utah would be the only wildcard here in my opinion.

Now here's where the insanity comes in. A lot will depend on how big the gaps are between teams 2-5. There is no doubt in my mind that Bama becomes clear cut #1 in all polls. Although I feel that the numbers will start to level out between 2-5 to the point where the gap will not be as large as it is now. Based on what I see in the polls now, my pure, pull-it-out-of-my-ass guess is that #2 will be between .92-.93 and #5 will be .86 - .88, which is a signicant boost for USC's .730.

It then becomes a matter of who turns up #2 in the human polls between Texas and USC and by what kind of margin. In short, who gets the heart strings tugged on more. Texas who got the shaft or the PAC 10 Champ? I don't think that is as clear cut a result as most people think.

Now imagine if Mizzou wins and Florida wins...things really, really get f'd up. I'm not even going to try to guess what the computers spit out then because right now the computers hate Florida.

tl;dr - Mizzou wins, it will be a shit show. Texas is likely, but saying it is definite NC birth is a strech IMO.

[Roranora]

It's a far bigger stretch to say people will vote USC so definitively as to close the computer-created gap with Texas than it is to say Texas is a lock to play in the NC if Missouri wins. We all know how big of an impact SoS will have on pollsters when trying to decide between two teams; USC really has no argument at all to leap Texas. Nothing they do on the field against UCLA will make any large number of voters forget what Texas has done all season. I'm sorry, but USC can't win the Alabama/Florida game. There is no reason to put USC at 2 over a Texas team who only beat the two teams playing in the Big 12 Championship. Texas' 4-game stretch, at the end of which is their only blemish, will not be dismissed by human polls. It's Texas or Oklahoma, and that's not really a stretch.

[Koyuki]

lol

I used to have a "Go Cocks!" and "I love the Cocks" shirt. Needless to say it had the mascot on the shirt, but still lol.

Have you seen the "I Love Cocks" Thongs? Always love seeing them.

[octopus]

tl;dr - Mizzou wins, it will be a shit show. Texas is likely, but saying it is definite NC birth is a strech IMO.

Dude, did you read what I posted? Even with the computer score bump (if Mizzou wins), USC would need a near unianimous #1 in both polls to catch up to Texas' *current* BCS ranking.

This is not even counting Texas' own computer score bump if Mizzou wins.

[Kyo]

Have you seen the "I Love Cocks" Thongs? Always love seeing them.

He probably has one on now.

[LAGUNA]

Mizzou Wins, Bama wins. Texas v Bama NC. (Texas wins)
USC blow out UCLA (90+ - 0)
USC BLOW OUT PENN STATE (60+ - 6) LOLOL
USC split national champs in the AP poll, woot woot

(I wish)

[Koyuki]

Just read that SC is going to Outback bowl against either Northwestern or Iowa.

Yay we're fucked!

[Ryany]

ESPN is reporting Tuberville is gone.

I think it is a dumb choice.

[Akiyama]

ESPN is reporting Tuberville is gone.

I think it is a dumb choice.

Yep. He's stepping down AKA being forced out by boosters. I'm completely sick of boosters. So yeah, Tommy Tuberville out at AU. Clearly going 5-7 a year after averaging at least 9 wins a season for the past ten years = you're fucked in the coaching world today. I'm interested to see who would really want to come coach Auburn right now, though I'd rather have Tubbs.

Also, when are we making our Bowl Pick 'em group, Byrd?

[Byrd]

Also, when are we making our Bowl Pick 'em group, Byrd?

Probably Sunday or Monday, or whenever the bowl game lineup is in place. If you do it too early, people sign up but don't make picks because they aren't in place yet, then don't go back and make picks. I'd rather give everyone the opportunity to do it in one fell swoop.

[Bregor]

Tuberville and Fulmer gone in the same season, never thought I'd see the day. With Croom leaving Miss. State, that's three SEC openings. I wonder how many more spread option geniuses we'll get.

[Akiyama]

Probably Sunday or Monday, or whenever the bowl game lineup is in place. If you do it too early, people sign up but don't make picks because they aren't in place yet, then don't go back and make picks. I'd rather give everyone the opportunity to do it in one fell swoop.

Ah, okay. That makes sense.

Tuberville and Fulmer gone in the same season, never thought I'd see the day. With Croom leaving Miss. State, that's three SEC openings. I wonder how many more spread option geniuses we'll get.

Two. Remember? Tennessee already hired Lane Kiffin (the young guy that got fired from Oakland, and Monty Kiffin's (Tampa Bay Defensive Coordinator coach) son.

Curious to see if Auburn goes after Mike Leach. Giving Auburn an offensive coach like that? Could lead to more fail. Auburn just can't get those kind of athletes as it stands right now.

[Bregor]

Yeah I meant there will be three new coaches next season, semantics etc. Lane Kiffin seems like a good fit for Tennessee, at least system-wise. Recruiting will be the real test for him.

I agree with your point about Tuberville getting the bum's rush. He's been one of the most consistent coaches for the last decade and had a shot at a national championship taken from him by Oklahoma's preseason poll standing in 2004. It only took two seasons for it to come apart though, Auburn had two bad losses early last year to South Florida and Mississippi State, and this year was obviously an experiment gone wrong. It just sucks, I know it's a cliche' but holding on to a head coaching position these days is so much "what have you done for me lately?" When JoePa and Bowden finally go, Frank Beamer will be the longest-tenured coach in a BCS conference by a good margin.

I haven't seen any press on Tuberville but I bet he finds another place to coach real soon. I thought Fulmer was a UT-or-bust kinda guy and he's already making noise about looking around for a good fit, so nothing would surprise me at this point.

[Stiker]

Yep. He's stepping down AKA being forced out by boosters. I'm completely sick of boosters. So yeah, Tommy Tuberville out at AU. Clearly going 5-7 a year after averaging at least 9 wins a season for the past ten years = you're fucked in the coaching world today. I'm interested to see who would really want to come coach Auburn right now, though I'd rather have Tubbs.

Yeah so freakin' stupid. Auburn going back to the drawing board with a new coach -- oh yeah future Iron Bowls are going to be a ton of fun for them.